Hurricane Matthew?

yachtbrokerguy said:

I have hired a deckhand to come to some of my listings here at the shipyard in Fort Lauderdale and remove the Bimini tops. He will be paid $25 per hour with an estimate cost of $50 to $100 per Bimini to take down and put back up. How could you get any canvas repair for that amount of money?
The shipyard is five miles up river from the ocean and is already full.

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Easy and smart precaution. We basically just check that everything is tied well, no movable objects outside such as furniture and no canvas. You're dealing with boat floating docks and fixed aren't you?

Heron said:

Looks like, based on current tracks, this is gonna come right over us at the head of the Pamlico. There is a small mooring field off my docks in Washington NC. I'm about to make arrangements to go out on a ball. At $10 a day this looks like a no brainer. Just serviced, rated for 50 ft in 100 mph winds. Should be OK. A little leery of staying at the docks, even though pretty well protected. Decision point tomorrow...

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Who is the contact for the moorings? That might be an option for me.

Daddyo said:

Well this is really starting to look like number four for me. Grace is still out in Ocracoke and that looks to be about the worst place you can be. I'm heading back to the boat tomorrow and try to make a bumpy run across the Pamlico Sound on Wed to try and find a hiding spot either in Adams Creek or further up toward New Bern. There just aren't any good places to hide in Eastern NC for this one.

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The Trent River at New Bern if not too crowded with boats should be good. What about Goose Creek or Bath Creek off the Pamlico River? The cove inside Adams Creek entrance a little ways could be good.

Mark, it seems that if a hurricane is around you will find it. Good luck.

Mark...Just passed your name to my Mooring contact. The upper Pamlico is pretty protected and you'll have the benefit of the Washington Waterfont ammenities, Restaurants etc. I just made my reservation. Maybe I'll see you up the river this weekend.. PM details should be in your inbox..

Looks like this thing is gonna come right over us unless a radical track change happens..

Moonstruck said:

The Trent River at New Bern if not too crowded with boats should be good. What about Goose Creek or Bath Creek off the Pamlico River? The cove inside Adams Creek entrance a little ways could be good.

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Goose creek or Bath are good options if you don't mind being on the hook. Goose creek probably being the most protected. I go in there all the time if you can deal with 4-5 ft. draft. Likely the water will be up so this would not be an issue since the tidal changes in the Pamlico are largely wind driven and will likely be 3-4 feet over the norm..

HopCar said:

Miami is currently out of the cone of death but there is too much uncertainty about this one. They are talking about a ridge forming to the NE of the storm. That would push it right into Florida.

I'm going to do a little more hurricane prep work today. I've got three bee hives in my back yard. I guess I'll lose them if a hurricane hits.

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The center of the " cone of death" is the best place to be early on. Because the storm never seems to end up going there. :lol:

As to your bees, can't you just bring them inside?

BandB said:

As an update, Freeport now is under the same hurricane warning as Nassau.

Prediction, the Fun Day will be very near Key West. Current forecasts off the coast around Fort Lauderdale are seas of 9 to 11' with occasional 14' for Thursday and Gulf Stream is 14-17' with occasional 20'. The Gulf Stream in the area toward Freeport is in excess of 20' with occasional 28'. This assumes winds of 40-50 knots and gusts of 60 knots.

Now if the storm moved east, then the winds would be double that, actually if in a CAT 3 hurricane. The good news for Carnival is that Friday looks good in South Florida and the storm would probably hit the Jacksonville area around 8 am on Friday so they should be able to cruise Friday night and be back to Jacksonville as planned on Saturday morning.

I think we can safely assume now that the cruise ship will not visit the Bahamas on this trip. Rename it the "Key West Cruise".

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And that is why I'm staying put in Key West till while this thing rolls on North.

Where is your big boat going to be for the storm?

BandB said:

As an update, Freeport now is under the same hurricane warning as Nassau.

Prediction, the Fun Day will be very near Key West. Current forecasts off the coast around Fort Lauderdale are seas of 9 to 11' with occasional 14' for Thursday and Gulf Stream is 14-17' with occasional 20'. The Gulf Stream in the area toward Freeport is in excess of 20' with occasional 28'. This assumes winds of 40-50 knots and gusts of 60 knots.

Now if the storm moved east, then the winds would be double that, actually if in a CAT 3 hurricane. The good news for Carnival is that Friday looks good in South Florida and the storm would probably hit the Jacksonville area around 8 am on Friday so they should be able to cruise Friday night and be back to Jacksonville as planned on Saturday morning.

I think we can safely assume now that the cruise ship will not visit the Bahamas on this trip. Rename it the "Key West Cruise".

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Pretty glad that at least our friends didn't pick that cruise.
Still unsure about what what will happen with ours, Carnival's next update is 8pm. Seems like they'll go, but we'll see.

incroyable video from sat

Vu de l'espace, l'ouragan Matthew survole Haïti, Cuba et la Jamaïque - L'Express

Sitting in the Miami River a stones throw from Hop Car and it has been nonstop traffic of boats looking for berths. At this point I'm waiting before doing extra work. Tomorrow will be the day one way of the other.
Good luck everyone.

Lobstah said:

Pretty glad that at least our friends didn't pick that cruise.
Still unsure about what what will happen with ours, Carnival's next update is 8pm. Seems like they'll go, but we'll see.

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Yours will go on as scheduled. They're not about to cancel it. Now, I don't know where yours is scheduled to go. If one of their islands in the Bahamas it might not be in condition to go there. But they'll take you somewhere.

BandB said:

Yours will go on as scheduled. They're not about to cancel it. Now, I don't know where yours is scheduled to go. If one of their islands in the Bahamas it might not be in condition to go there. But they'll take you somewhere.

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We're headed for Cozumel, so no worries down there.
I think the only thing they're probably looking at is the ability to get out of Tampa Bay under the Skyline Bridge. I think it would take a bit more than TS force winds to hamper that, but no ones quite sure yet what we'll have over here on the left coast by Thurs evening.

Heron said:

Mark...Just passed your name to my Mooring contact. The upper Pamlico is pretty protected and you'll have the benefit of the Washington Waterfont ammenities, Restaurants etc. I just made my reservation. Maybe I'll see you up the river this weekend.. PM details should be in your inbox..

Looks like this thing is gonna come right over us unless a radical track change happens..

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Great! I just made my reservation.

Lobstah said:

We're headed for Cozumel, so no worries down there.
I think the only thing they're probably looking at is the ability to get out of Tampa Bay under the Skyline Bridge. I think it would take a bit more than TS force winds to hamper that, but no ones quite sure yet what we'll have over here on the left coast by Thurs evening.

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Which vessel are you on? Carnival Paradise does the Tampa to Cozumel run. They have a bridge draft of 115' 6". Sunshine Skyway bridge clearance is 174'.

You have 59 ft of tide and storm surge to worry about. I seriously doubt they're worrying about bridge clearance issues.

Not worried about height, but if you were aware of what took out the first Skyline Bridge, you could see them exercising caution in a high-wind environment.

Shrew said:

Which vessel are you on? Carnival Paradise does the Tampa to Cozumel run. They have a bridge draft of 115' 6". Sunshine Skyway bridge clearance is 174'.

You have 59 ft of tide and storm surge to worry about. I seriously doubt they're worrying about bridge clearance issues.

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Wifey B: If there is 59 ft of surge, he has a lot more that bridge clearance to worry about. Can anyone say, "Noah?"

Interestingly, right now, the Ensemble and NHC models as well as the computer models all tend to show Matthew proceeding up off the coast and not make landfall until SC/NC, making it there at a reduced wind speed. However, there is one exception. Historically the most accurate forecast has been the European Model. It is on the far west part of all the ensemble paths. It shows the storm making landfall in central to northern FL while still a CAT 3 or CAT 4. If this happened there would be a lot of damage in that area of FL and southern GA. It could actually mean less damage in SC and NC as the time over land would likely weaken it. If this was any other forecast, it would be quickly labeled as an outlier. Because it's the European model, most web sites and television forecasts are giving it more consideration than all the other models.

When the great flood comes, I will be on my ark! ⛈??


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59 ft of surge must be a misprint.

BandB said:

Wifey B: If there is 59 ft of surge, he has a lot more that bridge clearance to worry about. Can anyone say, "Noah?"

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Keep on the look out for animals lining up two by two...

Hilton Head -

Since the governor's announcement at 3PM today, panic is rearing it's ugly head. Gas lines are already around the block. Roads are at a crawl. Of course marina is full. Looking at the newer weather models, should be an interesting weekend for sure.

The NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division model is still keeping Matthew offshore with landfall at Wilmington. I've found their track predictions to be pretty reliable over the years. Not sure what their modelling methodology is, but it seems to work well.

Navy/NRL TC_PAGES Page

The extreme angle at which Matthew is approaching the South Carolina coast makes the predicted path very questionable to me. I'm not a mathematician, but how many degrees would it have to deviate from it's current position (different heading/late turns/early turns) to throw this path out the window? Put another way, it's forecast to miss Charleston by about 35 miles after making some complex turns. It seems like any deviation from its predicted path down near Cuba would result in exponential "downstream" changes by the time it gets to the eastern seaboard.

Or maybe this is all my wishful thinking. We just spent two weeks at Kiawah Island, SC and I hate to think of another Hugo hitting that lovely area.

angus99 said:

The extreme angle at which Matthew is approaching the South Carolina coast makes the predicted path very questionable to me. I'm not a mathematician, but how many degrees would it have to deviate from it's current position (different heading/late turns/early turns) to throw this path out the window? Put another way, it's forecast to miss Charleston by about 35 miles after making some complex turns. It seems like any deviation from its predicted path down near Cuba would result in exponential "downstream" changes by the time it gets to the eastern seaboard.

Or maybe this is all my wishful thinking. We just spent two weeks at Kiawah Island, SC and I hate to think of another Hugo hitting that lovely area.

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Nope...good point.

Just like navigation, a few degrees makes all the difference over time.

That's one thing that makes weather forecasting a tough job all the time...just a matter of degrees....temp and direction.

Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?

You have to wonder what Nicole entering the picture will mean . . . curiouser and curiouser as they say . . .

About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.

Donsan said:

About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive.

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Meaning, I suppose, that they were going pretty fast, and perhaps more wake than one would really like? I have noticed over the years that both the CG and the Marine Patrol (in Florida) tend to do that. Oh well.

One of the biggest problems, as I'm sure everyone has noticed, is that this storm has been incredibly difficult to forecast. Models are all over the place. Models that usually are not close, are turning out to be much closer than "old reliables".
In the week+ that I've been watching this storm, it appears to me that the NCH forecasts have been playing catch-up the entire time. Other models, that historically have been poo-pooed have turned out to be much more accurate, at least so far.
A week ago, NHC was calling for OTS, and anything that came close to Florida was laughed at. Now?...people are vehemently arguing over whether the storm makes landfall in Port St. Lucy, or JAX, or pick you spot.
Bottom line, and my takeaway is that NOBODY knew where this storm was going. We all look at the models, and we asses risk based on those models. When a few models call for a track that's further west, and then a few more models start agreeing with those, you've got to believe that something's up.
These are called models for a reason. And one thing you can be sure of, is the old GIGO....Garbage In...Garbage Out. So when conditions are normal?...then the models perform fairly well. When the conditions are ABnormal, which they clearly are in this case?...then all bets are off, and you have to watch it like a hawk.

I was under the impression, 5 days was the reason able amount of time for any weather model...past that and probabilities of error skyrocket.

For daily westher, it is often as low as 3 days in my experience.