Hurricane Matthew?

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MRRiley said:
If you use the top arrow buttons it walks it through in 6 hr increments. After the first few, the storm comes into view then tracks pretty much through the middle of FLA.
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I don't see any other hurricane tracking system or predictor showing it coming up South Florida like that. Doesn't mean the others are right.
 
BandB said:
I don't see any other hurricane tracking system or predictor showing it coming up South Florida like that. Doesn't mean the others are right.
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Neither do I, which is very good news. I am a bit concerned that the Navy would produce something like that?...that part is worriesome.

Someone just posted that Gov Scott declared a state of emergency, but I haven't seen that anywhere yet.
 
Watching this thread very closely, learning a lot from you folks.


Generic google searches found some discussions about the "blob" to the east of the main storm. Have read about convection currents causing this. I don't recall typically seeing this type of formation.


Is this pretty normal? Have you seen this occurrence before?


Mark
 
From what I've gathered, the "blob" is not usual at all, and has caused a lot of speculation about it's impact on the storm itself.
For awhile it looked almost like it was going to form another eye. Early this morning radar images shows what was best described as a bomb going off between the blob and the eye, and it really did look like something just exploded between the two.
 
Lobstah said:
Neither do I, which is very good news. I am a bit concerned that the Navy would produce something like that?...that part is worriesome.

Someone just posted that Gov Scott declared a state of emergency, but I haven't seen that anywhere yet.
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Yes, from the Sun Sentinel:

Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency in Florida. His announcement read in part: "Hurricane Matthew is a life-threatening category four hurricane and we must all take it seriously. If Hurricane Matthew directly impacts Florida, there could be massive destruction which we haven’t seen since Hurricane Andrew devastated Miami-Dade County in 1992. That is why we cannot delay and must prepare for direct impact now."

South Florida remains just outside the forecast cone showing the likely path of the storm's center, according to the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

WHAT FLORIDA CAN EXPECT: The hurricane center said it's too soon to tell the impact on South Florida. The National Weather Service says the risk that South Florida will experience hurricane-force winds stands at less than 5 percent.
​
 
Scott isn't the only governor to issue State of Emergency order. McCrory has for 66 counties in NC.
 
I just saw that you can go to Nasatv and view the ISS pass over Mathew. Quite the sight...
 
This is a special weather statement on Carnival Cruise Line's website, changing the itinerary of a cruise that left Jacksonville at 4pm today:

Carnival Elation – 10/3/16 departure
We will need to cancel our calls in Half Moon Cay and Nassau and replace them with a visit to Key West and Freeport. Please find the new itinerary below.

Day Port Arrival Departure
Mon Jacksonville, FL 4:00PM
Tue Fun Day @ Sea
Wed Key West 8:00AM 8:00PM
Thu Fun Day @ Sea
Fri Freeport, The Bahamas 7:00AM 2:00PM
Sat Jacksonville, FL 7:00AM


So Thursday, they'll be going from Key West East over to the Bahamas?
That's the exact time that Mathew is supposed to hit the Bahamas as a Cat4/Cat5 storm.

That "Fun Day at Sea" on Thursday might be really something.
 
track-vi.png
 
Lobstah said:
This is a special weather statement on Carnival Cruise Line's website, changing the itinerary of a cruise that left Jacksonville at 4pm today:

Carnival Elation – 10/3/16 departure
We will need to cancel our calls in Half Moon Cay and Nassau and replace them with a visit to Key West and Freeport. Please find the new itinerary below.

Day Port Arrival Departure
Mon Jacksonville, FL 4:00PM
Tue Fun Day @ Sea
Wed Key West 8:00AM 8:00PM
Thu Fun Day @ Sea
Fri Freeport, The Bahamas 7:00AM 2:00PM
Sat Jacksonville, FL 7:00AM


So Thursday, they'll be going from Key West East over to the Bahamas?
That's the exact time that Mathew is supposed to hit the Bahamas as a Cat4/Cat5 storm.

That "Fun Day at Sea" on Thursday might be really something.
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It's amazing what they'll do to not cancel a trip. They don't care if thy have to turn right around and reverse course and certainly not if they have to skip stops. They do care about cancelling and having to return money. Amazing the cruise ships in the Bahamas during Joaquin. They're cancelling Nassau and scheduling Freeport, but they know they may have to cancel Freeport as well. As long as they get to Key West and back, they'll consider it a good trip.
 
Hurricane Question

Wifey B: Where do you want to be? Home? Near your things? With family and friends? Far away from the hurricane. Seems simple until you face the choices. We have people looking after things for us in South Florida, nothing we need to be there to do. Chicago is safe. Yet, we're feeling bad like we should fly home and be there with them even though we don't think it's coming there. If you decide to fly home, what day? What about family in Myrtle Beach? Should we tell them to fly here? We would choose all our stuff getting destroyed before someone badly hurt protecting any of it. We really are torn over this. We have air tickets for Wednesday morning, just in case we want to go home. We could have them all come here, but if we were there, we wouldn't be leaving based on what we know right now. Guess we'll follow it more tomorrow and think more. :ermm:
 
Now, they're all moving to the west and the cone has moved considerably. Obviously not a firm forecast of any sort, but certainly worth further noting. All ensemble models have moved west from where they were at 4:00 PM.
 
"They do care about cancelling and having to return money"

Since I'm scheduled to depart Tampa on a cruise on Carnival this Thursday, I studied up on this a bit. If they cancel due to weather?...no refunds, as it's something that is out of their control.
Sad but true. We have 20 folks heading out, not a one bought insurance :)

"Due to the nature of a cruise vacation, itinerary changes sometimes become necessary for safety, weather or other reasons beyond the control of Carnival. If the itinerary change is for reasons beyond Carnival’s exclusive control, including but not limited to safety, security, weather, strikes, tides, hostilities, civil unrest, port closings, emergency debarkations of guests or crew, late air, sea, car or motor coach departures or arrivals, mechanical breakdowns or problems not known to Carnival, itinerary changes consistent with U.S. State Department travel warnings / advisories or other applicable US or foreign governmental advisories, guests will not be provided any compensation. Guests electing to cancel will be subject to the standard cancellation terms. "


So stay tuned :)
 
Looks like it's popping back up to Cat 5 soon.

I think the further South you are in Florida, the better you may be, unless it draws crosshairs on Miami/Ft. Laud.

But if it's path comes in at Melbourne or Jacksonville...might not be too bad. Maybe make the run over to Ft Meyers/Naples.
 
Lobstah said:
"Due to the nature of a cruise vacation, itinerary changes sometimes become necessary for safety, weather or other reasons beyond the control of Carnival. If the itinerary change is for reasons beyond Carnival’s exclusive control, including but not limited to safety, security, weather, strikes, tides, hostilities, civil unrest, port closings, emergency debarkations of guests or crew, late air, sea, car or motor coach departures or arrivals, mechanical breakdowns or problems not known to Carnival, itinerary changes consistent with U.S. State Department travel warnings / advisories or other applicable US or foreign governmental advisories, guests will not be provided any compensation. Guests electing to cancel will be subject to the standard cancellation terms. "


So stay tuned :)
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My understanding is that if they cancel the cruise, you get a future cruise, but if you cancel, no compensation. However, if they start the cruise, and you only go 50 miles, there is no compensation of any type. It's itinerary changes. Now, that may have changed, but last I knew.
 
6 PM Monday cone forecast sure has it moving left.
 

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Well, the weather forecast isn't looking any better. Hopefully it will stay east. We're on the hard within a mile of the entrance to the St Johns River, JAX. My optimism says this will only be a pia. I hope I'm right. We watched the local evening news a little while ago. :eek::eek:
 
Cant believe Carnival would launch out of Jax and then head for Key West. Makes no sense, and no way would I be on that boat.

I feel there's enough risk out of Tampa on Thurs for Lobstah... I wouldn't be on that one either but stands a much better chance.

However, Im just not a cruiser... BTDT eat and drink way too much and get ripped off at every port and fight crowds....no thanks. I would rather be on my own or a friends boat.
 
Seevee said:
Cant believe Carnival would launch out of Jax and then head for Key West. Makes no sense, and no way would I be on that boat.

I feel there's enough risk out of Tampa on Thurs for Lobstah... I wouldn't be on that one either but stands a much better chance.

However, Im just not a cruiser... BTDT eat and drink way too much and get ripped off at every port and fight crowds....no thanks. I would rather be on my own or a friends boat.
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All like you :thumb:
 
Meanwhile, we're experiencing some drizzle and gentle winds, with no apparent weather threat here. ... Good luck to you eastern coasters.
 
BandB said:
My understanding is that if they cancel the cruise, you get a future cruise, but if you cancel, no compensation. However, if they start the cruise, and you only go 50 miles, there is no compensation of any type. It's itinerary changes. Now, that may have changed, but last I knew.
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Hope that's the case. Hope even more that we don't have the opportunity to find out first hand :)

Either way, it's still a "first world" problem, and we'll be ok. Might end up taking a little unforseen motor home trip insteead.
It's good to have options.
 
My boat is at my dock on the Miami River and we have gone through all the Hurricanes for the last 25 years with no problems. At this point I am not planning on doing anything extra but that may change in the next day or two with doubling the lines and adding fenders. Hopefully it will go west of Miami.
 
Seevee said:
Cant believe Carnival would launch out of Jax and then head for Key West. Makes no sense, and no way would I be on that boat.

I feel there's enough risk out of Tampa on Thurs for Lobstah... I wouldn't be on that one either but stands a much better chance.

However, Im just not a cruiser... BTDT eat and drink way too much and get ripped off at every port and fight crowds....no thanks. I would rather be on my own or a friends boat.
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I don't get ripped off, at least not much, and I might eat a bit too much, but it sure is great to just spend time out on the water.
Get my coffee at 5am, head on up to the deck, and just enjoy being "out there".
 
Well this is really starting to look like number four for me. Grace is still out in Ocracoke and that looks to be about the worst place you can be. I'm heading back to the boat tomorrow and try to make a bumpy run across the Pamlico Sound on Wed to try and find a hiding spot either in Adams Creek or further up toward New Bern. There just aren't any good places to hide in Eastern NC for this one.
 
Bigsfish said:
My boat is at my dock on the Miami River and we have gone through all the Hurricanes for the last 25 years with no problems. At this point I am not planning on doing anything extra but that may change in the next day or two with doubling the lines and adding fenders. Hopefully it will go west of Miami.
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Attache fender by down eye to the other fender opposite side...
Fenders are not going to fly or move???:thumb:
 
I've experienced two hurricanes in cruise ships, including 50-foot waves. No big problem, but planned ports and open decks can be unavailable.

Have also experienced rescuing sailboaters at sea, collision, and mechanical/electrical failures while on cruise ships. On balance, those events were positive adventures.
 
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101Tug. Good idea but I can only tie up to the dock on one side. Prayers works in situations like this and football bets. LOL
 
Daddyo said:
I'm heading back to the boat tomorrow and try to make a bumpy run across the Pamlico Sound on Wed to try and find a hiding spot either in Adams Creek or further up toward New Bern. There just aren't any good places to hide in Eastern NC for this one.
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Mark....the Hurricane Kid!....you must be a glutten for punishment. This time, get us a selfie of you holding on to the pulpit rail while spitting Mathew's eye right in the eye! You do still have that storm anchor, don't you?
 
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