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Old 10-03-2016, 03:01 PM   #83
BandB's Avatar
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 15,841
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
Well...I'm not sure what to tell you, you seem to think I'm making all of this up?

Here's a forecast map from NHC. This "cone" has shifted considerably West over the past 24hrs.
When I look at this, Miami is seems to be within the cone of probability. Is it 20%?...30%??...don't know, and really don't care. The point is just that I think folks in FL/GA/SC/NC need to be aware that the forecasts on this, especially the track, are very dynamic.
Hurricane MATTHEW
No, I just caution about implications that it's a the preponderant theory at this point and the statement you didn't agree with either saying ALL members. I agree everyone seems to be aware even if it doesn't make land in the US. Right now, I think the odds are very bad for the Bahamas and better for some areas on the coast. South Florida isn't in the NOAA cone now even. Notice Miami outside it. Still, living in Fort Lauderdale (or if I was in Miami), I'm not making any assumptions that anyone knows what it will do. As long as it's alive and south of us, I'll follow it closely.

Interestingly, the current projected path is right in line with the vast majority of October 3, 4 and 5's that originated where it did. One went to LA and the others have primarily made US landfall in the SC/NC area. Another thing is that they've been 4's leading up to landfall and strong 3's when they've hit. Also, they've remained hurricanes (CAT 1) all the way through Lake Ontario.

One person says the consensus has moved east and another says west. Either way the accuracy of forecasts 4 and 5 days out is not good. It's definitely a major storm to follow closely.
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