Hurricane Matthew?

psneeld said:

I am still trying to figure out why this storm is so different?

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For a few different reasons.

1) Dramatic shift in the storm track in a very short period of time.
2) Dramatic RI (rapid intensification). People who have been watching these for years have never seen a storm go from a tropical depression to a Cat 4 Hurricane in less than 48hrs.

As for where the updates come from...one major source is live feeds from the hurricane hunters, speaking of which, another one is now wheels-up at MacDill AFB, AF303 Mission #9 into MATTHEW wheels up.
This allows folks that are really set up for it to monitor live data from the datasondes as they're being dropped.
That's why people know there are Cat 4 winds in the storm before there are official updates via NHC.

Also, the NHC itself says that intensity forecasts are very poor, while track forecasts have improved over the past 10-20yrs.

Yes rapid intensification has been a major indicator of bad storms. they also say it is tough to predict...yet I thought on this one, they saw it coming.

Also, they see a possible weakening over the next several days...how does that fit into the overall scheme? While I have followed weather and hurricanes to keep boats and USCG assets out of harms way...it isn't a hobby of mine.

They are predicting a slight weakening going over the mountainous land masses. Not sure how that also fits the pattern of RI.

NHC has predicted weakening several times now, but each time has been a "miss".
As I mentioned, tough time predicting anything with a storm that's gone from a TD, to TS, to Hurricane Cat 1, and now showing Cat 4 winds, in less than 48hrs.

Clearly something that might be outside the bounds of what models were built to contend with.

Levi, at Tropical Tidbits, is a meteorology student at FSU, and maintains an excellent blog which includes video analysis.
I'd encourage folks to go to his site and listen to his latest video, just posted.

www.hurricanetrack.com has a new analysis up as of 5pm that does a credible job of explaining or pointing out some of the various models and their tracks.

time will tell...always nice to be prepared...but not over react.

Lobstah said:

Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."

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Lobstah,

162 mph is over a cat 4 hurricane, and like an F3 tornado, only ~60 miles across. That's unbelievable, and the damage would be worse than Andrew.

this is big monster, we was lucky in ST Barth Matthew was no hurricane and pass real south when he was here, but I can tell you I want looking every 3 hours and still looking to see if he not coming back on us...

This one, where he's going (disadvantaged country) he's going to kill lot of people, prepare humanitarian aid there going to need it.

we living all year long onboard since 10 years , I'm really tired of hurricane season, if one day we going back on shore that only for that reason.

Hugues

Greetings,
Mr. H. "...we going back on shore that only for that reason." OR move south of 10 degrees latitude for the season...

Why don't you just hangout in the South Caribbean in the Trinidad neighborhood? No Hurricanes.

Has to better than living ashore LOL

Greetings,
Mr. K. HAH! Posted 3 minutes before you. Great minds...

guys you nice but our life is in ST Barth have job, kids going at school, if we bring boat to Trinidad or other place for 5 months what we doing living on dock ?

Last hunter measured Cat 5 winds. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded the storm to Cat 5 later this evening.

And it still has some very warm water in front of it...

Waiting for a blow here in marathon and have reserved a mooring in boot key harbor. Not expect ing a full hurricane but want the opinion to go or not. We are going to keep abreast of what it coming and will stay at the dock if it goes thru the Bahamas,as we are expecting wind to 50+ with gusts. As long as it stays east of us we will stay at the dock and prepare for the worst.

M. 101. Rats! (M*rde) Back to the matter at hand...Matthew. (Grandson named Matthew-He's at the "terrible two" stage)

It's projected to hit Jamaica as a CAT 3 and that will do considerable damage there. Then forecast to reduce to a CAT 2. Right now it's a very strong CAT 4, so I agree brief CAT 5 wouldn't be surprising. Just hoping it's down to a 3 by the time it gets to Jamaica.

The paths show low likelihood of South Florida but still we're all on alert. Everything there prepared. If it comes through as a 2 or less we do nothing special. 4 or 5 or even 3 directly then evacuation is a consideration. In our case, we're in Chicago at the moment so we're personally safe.

No posts today from Capt Bill. I think he may very well be either getting out of Cuba or planning to. A lot has happened with this storm the last 48 hours. The next 48 will definitely merit close attention.

I live/work as a Defense Contractor on a US Navy base in Andros Island, Bahamas. The Navy weather center in Jacksonville feels pretty confident Matthew is headed this way and will be evacuating all of us on Sunday. The southeastern islands from Acklins to Long & Cat Islands took some serious beatings last year, they certainly don't need a visit from Matthew this year. As for me, upon evacuation I'll return to Ft. Pierce and get Tuna Talk prepared should Matthew drift westerly. Been living on Andros Island for 19 years and been evacuated approximately 10 times. Other than hurricane preps to secure the base prior to evac, it's not too bad a couple days in West Palm Beach! In 2005, we came back to over 300 mature trees downed, 3 roofs damaged and 3 boats washed up on shore. That was a "M" named storm, Michelle! Please, no repeat.

RT Firefly said:

M. 101. Rats! (M*rde) Back to the matter at hand...Matthew. (Grandson named Matthew-He's at the "terrible two" stage)

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I was close to pass away 2 time during hurricane :bang head: but good still here but tired about hurricane season ... and more easy on shore

I think I'll start my early hurricane prep work tomorrow. I'll secure my boat so I don't have to worry about it. I'll be able to prep my house and store if it starts to look worse for Miami on Monday.

Went to Cat 5 last night, now predicted to hit Jamaica as a Cat 4.
There's just too much ocean heat for any substantial weakening.

Looks like Jamaica Mon morning, and eastern Cuba Mon evening, both Cat 4 events.

Thoughts out to those that are dealing with the impact of this.

The EMCWF model this morning is calling for an "OTS" (out-to-sea) scenario, while the GFS run now hugs the coast all the way up to New England.

I don't usually vote in favor of Europe over the US, but in this case?... def hope the Euro model wins.

Lobstah said:

The EMCWF model this morning is calling for an "OTS" (out-to-sea) scenario, while the GFS run now hugs the coast all the way up to New England.

I don't usually vote in favor of Europe over the US, but in this case?... def hope the Euro model wins.

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Actually, I believe that over the years the EMCWF model has the best track record of any of them. That is my recollection, anyway.

Lobstah said:

The EMCWF model this morning is calling for an "OTS" (out-to-sea) scenario, while the GFS run now hugs the coast all the way up to New England.

I don't usually vote in favor of Europe over the US, but in this case?... def hope the Euro model wins.

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Now back to the upper range of a CAT 4 and forecast again to hit Jamaica as a CAT 3 around Monday morning, although tropical storm to Jamaica much ahead of that. Then Cuba around 2:00 AM on Tuesday as a CAT 2 and the Bahamas as a CAT 2. However, the cone showing possibilities does include Florida and the entire US coast even though only one of the many models shows it hitting Florida. Wednesday and Thursday are now the critical days for possible US hit with direction becoming more predictable by Monday morning.

Wunderground/Dr. Masters still looking at Cat 3 hitting Cuba. I'm sticking with that.
As mentioned before, the NHC models have difficulty with intensity, by their own admission. Don't see any thing in it's path to weaken it from a 4 to a 2 before Cuba.
Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope that it does...just don't see it happening.

All eyes are on the turn at this point, and here's an example of why:
"If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular."

The turn has been the unknown and so far unpredictable portion of forecasting the track, with multiple elements in play, any one of which has a pretty dramatic impact on where Mathew goes.

We're supposed to be leaving on a cruise next Thurs out of Tampa, group of 20, some locals, some from New England...
Still not sure that's going to happen.

C'mon, euro!!!

Lobstah said:

C'mon, euro!!!

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Yup. Steer that puppy to the East! We do not need any more of that stuff up here on the west side of the peninsula, thank you very much.

There are still people in some of the more remote areas around here who have not yet had their power restored from Hermine.

Last night I was starting to relax.
This morning?...not so much.
Mathew has so far refused to turn. The longer the turn is delayed, the closer to US landfall and the closer to Florida landfall.
Consensus seems to be that if there's no turn in the next 4-6hrs, all bets are off, and we've got some real problems headed our way.

We now have a "stall"...could be good news, if it heads north when movement resumes.

If anything in looking at many models, they appear to be consolidating somewhat. The consensus now has it skirting Jamaica as a 3 and then direct hit on Eastern Cuba as a 2. It has lost some power already as it peaked around 155 mph and is now down to 140 mph. Many models do see it dropping to a 2 but perhaps becoming a 3 again in the Bahamas or after crossing them. Models now all have it continuing north but the distance from the US coast varies from safely off shore to skirting to direct hits and making landfall anywhere from South Florida to New England.

Certainly a storm to continue to follow closely.