Regarding the NOAA forecasts:
When I started in the industry the joke about the Gulf of Mexico forecasts was: take the forecast sea hts (5-9' seas) and add them together to get the real number of expected sea height.
However about 20 years ago a family out of New Jersey went out and got killed. Their heirs sued the national weather service (and won!). Because they argued that the noaa forecast was too 'underestimating' the prognosis. And some judge agreed.
The effect was noticeable on weather forecasting. The forecasts were adjusted to be more conservative and had higher winds and seas reported.
Also around the same time a 110' scalloper went out and 'iced up' capsized and I do believe the noaa forecast was blamed because there was 'no severe icing' predicted.
'Modern' computer modeling is so accurate it is quite phenomenal.
Regarding 'how accurate is the current forecast?' I can't overestimate the importance of NDBC buoy reports to give hourly(in most cases) updates to sea and/or wind actual conditions to confirm (or refute) forecasts. I compare forecast wind directions to NDBC actual readings for about 24 hours previous. See how close they have been, compared to previously forecast conditions. This is also useful to see when a weather pattern will 'break'.
Also, knowing that prevailing weather (at least in the location I generally operate in) helps me know where to look for NDBC reports to 'see what's coming'. While I work predominantly in NY I know that the wind and seas that I am having off NY harbor will generally be off Massachusetts in 12 to 18 hours. Same with winds and seas from the buoy 64 miles off of the Chesapeake. 12 to 18 hours later we will get comparatively the same wind and seas in NY.
If we have a hurricane brush by us on the east coast it will be pretty crappy in Ireland in about 5 days (more rain and wind than usual). Cause and effect.
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