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Old 08-22-2016, 06:16 AM   #8
psneeld
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City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin/PSN 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 28,119
I find that NOAA predictions to be as accurate as anyones. They just aren't specific.

An example is the Delaware Bay. Odd shaped, 24 hrs in a day. The forecasts are for day and night, but when is the transition 6 pm or dark? Part of the bay is wide open, part necks down and more river like. Then there is the river part that turns sharply.

Most wind forecasts seem to be for a general area that is devoid of terrain. Add terrain and there is shadowing, funneling, changes is direction, etc.

If I look at wind map projections, and they are in several hour increments....it is much easier to see the changes due to time of day and terrain as well as where the break in sind strength is.

So while the two forecasts aren't really in conflict it is easier to see why the generic forecast is giving info that may seem much different than what you are experiencing.

There are even more local effects than even what the base wind maps show. Every time in the last 4 years going past Cove Point in the Chesapeake, I noticed at least 5 knot increase in wind where the bay necks down. That can be significant in wave action if it is getting above 15 knots and opposing the tide.

I would think wind forecasts would almost be useless in many places in the North West. Having flown helos in most of Alaska , understanding the wind was all about reading it from what we could see in every valley, cut, sound, whatever terrain we were in for the moment. Forecast winds were only useful for wide open areas.
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