oscar
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Not sure how accurate the CNN graphics are, but if true, he aimed for it and ran straight into it......
El Faro Sinking
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The friendliest place on the web for anyone who enjoys boating.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
psneeld
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Unless it and you are going straight at each other.... it takes quite the plotting and navigation to keep a collision course with something that varies in path and speed like a hurricane...and is only based on guestimations when moving slow and intensifying.
oscar
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Well, over the timeframe depicted the hurricane didn't do much at all and the ship kept steaming for it. Now, the hurricane was supposed to get out of the way, but hello......
psneeld
Guru
Yes...that is the million dollar question....
At what point do you believe or ignore forecasts.
Already many here are saying believe absolutely and no possibly there is a well you can't believe them too closely....
Can't have it both ways...make a plan, execute the plan and choose backups when things change....unfortunately there's a small timeframe with unknown onboard changes that leave a big whole in any investigation as to what the Captain did or didn't do.
oscar
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Again, I don't know how accurate the graphics are, but if true, and he would have steamed East for another 300 or so miles he would have been behind it. They seldom turn back East...... And I suspect the forecast would have supported that. Giving these things a wide berth is prudent. I do the same with Tstorms in the airplane.
psneeld
Guru
All I can relate this to now is like being a ref in a ball game....big difference than being the guy in the armchair with the luxury of slow mo, instant replay.
And yes the storm was expected to make a more than 90 degree turn and yes it exploded on intensity and yes it is normal for ships of that size to graze storm/hurricane conditions, not avoid them totally.
And yes...lots of unanswered questions and as more bits of the puzzle are laid out....the better the chances of "guessing" what decisions were made onscene....or at least until any recorders are found.
And yes the storm was expected to make a more than 90 degree turn and yes it exploded on intensity and yes it is normal for ships of that size to graze storm/hurricane conditions, not avoid them totally.
And yes...lots of unanswered questions and as more bits of the puzzle are laid out....the better the chances of "guessing" what decisions were made onscene....or at least until any recorders are found.
cappy208
Guru
Only one problem with that scenario. What did other prudent Mariners do in this case? Did any other Mariners head TOwards an intensifying hurricane? Did any other Mariners put the Bahama Bank between them and a possible escape route? And did ANY of those Mariners take with them a shoreside repair crew to make 'underway repairs' to a decrepit ship? Schedule be damned. We are going to make our destination even if it kills us. (My next promotion depends on this).
oscar
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Almost. He had a lot more time than your proverbial ref. He had days.
In my biz (aviation) we call it "get-home-itis".
SaltyDawg86
Senior Member
#1) There were others that needed rescuing
#2) The underway repairs had nothing to with the plant, both boilers were online and running.
#2) The underway repairs had nothing to with the plant, both boilers were online and running.
Greatlaker221
Senior Member
This comes from the g captain el faro forum thread found here:
Sea Star's El Faro - Page 129
From "Mat"
My movie of possible timeline based on what we have so far (and reading between the lines). Based on speculation that El Faro was trying to head south through the Crooked Island Passage. It seems likely they made it through the Rum Cay cut, but were then incapacitated in some way after turning 45 degrees to starboard. Fill in your own narrative (Incorporates Weather Channel graphics
http://vid809.photobucket.com/albums/zz16/zoukwe/El%20Faro%20amp%20Joaquin%20Corrected%202%20Movie_zpsetb2hn0n.mp4
Sea Star's El Faro - Page 129
From "Mat"
My movie of possible timeline based on what we have so far (and reading between the lines). Based on speculation that El Faro was trying to head south through the Crooked Island Passage. It seems likely they made it through the Rum Cay cut, but were then incapacitated in some way after turning 45 degrees to starboard. Fill in your own narrative (Incorporates Weather Channel graphics
http://vid809.photobucket.com/albums/zz16/zoukwe/El%20Faro%20amp%20Joaquin%20Corrected%202%20Movie_zpsetb2hn0n.mp4
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Greatlaker221
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psneeld
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been both a professional aviator and professional mariner (smaller stuff but still put to sea with the USCG for decades)...
I see similarities in aviation and maritime, but then they are the same decisions driving, rving, camping.......just about everything....
I don't see this as get-home-it is at all.....
Or a few hundred containers acting like battering rams as she slid stern first for three miles.
I just hope it was quick for those aboard.
I do too as imagining how it might have been for them is very painful. I find it a bit surprising that only one body has surfaced and been found to this point.
I would think they would if wearing a PFD of some sort as the one found was. Otherwise, I wouldn't expect them to surface or at least to do so only after an extended period of time.
psneeld
Guru
Having served with a lot of highly trained seamen whow hAve expressed this concept....the guys on the El Faro might have just taken their jackets off in or out of the water....some people aren't into suffering and mental anguish.
Good point. I just can't imagine the horror of being in the water in those conditions. I think most people try to hold even to the smallest hope, but I can see too that once one decided to remove their jacket, others would follow that lead.
Any idea what the temperature of the water would be there at 15,000 ft below the surface?
psneeld
Guru
Not really true...the will to survive is across the board at the start and tends drop for all because of various factors.
Some will put a gun to their head before thy jump overboard.
I think seawater levels off at 4 degrees C at depth because of pressure....but that is only a guess.
Below what is necessary to produce gas and float from my lwarning.
You're right in that we don't know what level of panic existed or how long they'd known they had a problem. We don't know how long they had to think about it.
Yes, that temperature is basically enough to refrigerate a body. I googled and your guess is very good. I found places that said 0 to 3 C, or 32-38 F, with 3.5% salinity.
I'd only been aware of missing bodies on lakes in the past and there you don't have the same situation so ultimately the bodies surface. At that temperature they're not going to. No telling either where the deep ocean currents may have taken them.
So, I learned something today. I had no idea how cold it got deep.
psneeld
Guru
First 3 lines of the Gordon Lightfoot song - Wreck of the Edmund Fitgerald
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
I have heard but am sure that there are exceptions that Lake Superior is deep and cold enough to have many of it's victims also stay down in the deep cooler.
You would be surprised at how close bodies are recovered from where they went in from beaches, piers and jetties...many of my predictions to families and other authorities surprised them when I would say within a 1/4 mile or less.
Of course places with exceptional currents and rivers are a bit different.
Greatlaker221
Senior Member
It would seem to me the pressure at that depth would be a factor too
psneeld
Guru
On what in particular?
Not many closed air sacs in a human...water penterate and equalizes most areas...things like limbs are mostly water and most incompressible..to a point.
I was privy to pictures of human remains taken at nearly but not quite that depth....suprisingly recognizable except what I described before as unthinkable things can happen as time goes on...better left unsaid.
Wayfarer
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If she went over quickly, and due to the lack of distress signals sent I'm guessing she did, I bet just about everyone was inside. The conditions on deck were no doubt extremely dangerous. They were probably all on the bridge, or congregated in the galley. Even if they knew something bad could happen at any second, even if they thought they were ready to abandon ship, things can happen very, very quickly.
It's all very sobering to think about, as I sit on an old tugboat.
It's all very sobering to think about, as I sit on an old tugboat.
I try to stay away from speculating on these things but in this case I tend to go along with you, Dave.
5 years ago, I lost a friend who was a very seasoned guide in the waters off the west coast of Vancouver Island. He and 3 customers were in a 20 foot open aluminum charter boat that failed to return. An extensive search turned up nothing. 3 days later the boat was found capsized, at anchor, with the ignition switched off and all like jackets on board. They were either anchored jigging for halibut or the anchor fell out when the boat flipped.
Whatever happened, was very sudden which is often the case on this coast and the boys were never found which is also very common.
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Northern Spy
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I found this interesting and somewhat pertinent. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/11/time-to-drop-national-hurricane-centers.html
psneeld
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Yes depth (water pressure) plays a big roll in whether a body will float to the surface. As the body decomposes it generates internal gas which is what floats it. The pressure from the water compresses the gas reducing the volume. Let's say that at the surface, decomposition produces 1 gallon of gas which would be about 8 pounds of lifting buoyancy.
At 33' the pressure from water doubles sea level atmospheric pressure, gas volume is half, lift is reduced to 4 pounds.
At 99' surrounding pressure is 4 times the surface, volume is 1/4, lift is about 2 pounds.
At 231' pressure is 8 times the surface, volume is 1/8, lift is about 1 pound, body isn't ever going to float from gas generated by decomposition.
Ted
