Hurricane Patricia

Off the Pacific side of Mexico is a category 5 hurricane, Patricia. Yacht loss in marinas is forecast to be catastrophic with offshore vessels in extreme peril.

The weekend in key resort towns will be no fun with massive evacuations underway.

200 mph sustained winds with stronger gusts. Highest the hurricane center has ever recorded. Expected to still be a CAT 5 when she hits the pacific Mexico coast around Vallarta or that general area.

A new realization has really hit us hard following it. As you cruise you meet people in various places. Each of those times humanizes the place and it will never again be a spot on a weather map. A year ago, that area of Mexico was faceless to us. Didn't mean we wouldn't have been concerned. Just means that now we think of the places we went and the people who showed us so much hospitality and made our trip so wonderful. We never really followed Pacific hurricanes closely before, but now we're quite shaken by the potential devastation that may be coming.

It's something I've long known is that we feel very different about people we can put a face to than just some faceless group of people. We've become close to the Bahamian people and still see the work of Joaquin, just thankful its mostly property and not lives. We were in SC while the floods struck and lived just across the state line in NC. Now we're very much concerned over Hurricane Patricia.

Patricia is comparable to Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines in 2013 and killed 6000. Stronger than Katrina or Andrew.

I hope the storm dosn't jog NW and follow the three ships!

There are cruisers who will stay aboard at anchor in hope of being able to save their boat. I would be moving inland to high ground. Not only are the winds going to kill a lot of people, flash flooding will kill as well.

This is the strongest storm I ever remember.

And this comes a week before hurricane season in Mexico is officially over. Looks like our family might need to change our plans to be in P.V. for spring break!. That entire end of Banderas Bay is a old swamp and the entire area is about 10' above sea level.. they are screwed for sure. All we can do is hope for the best for the locals and folks who have property there.
Luckily the majority of the cruisers heading that way are still on the North side of the border.. if this happened in two or three weeks there could be a lot of boats offshore that would get nailed.
HOLLYWOOD

The 1959 unnamed hurricane which hit Mexico is the only eastern Pacific hurricane to make landfall as a CAT 5. It hit near Manzanillo and killed 1800. In some cities up to 50% of the homes were destroyed.

Sad part of this is the local population are very poor. Most cannot evacuate to inland areas away from the brunt of the storm. I fear many lives will be lost. Wonder if the Mexican government is trying to evacuate as many as they can.
Any one who stays on board in a small craft around this hurricane is absolutely insane. I've been caught in a building tropical storm on a boat and I'll never want to go through that again much less a hurricane. Praying for those folks down there....

ragin cajun said:

Any one who stays on board in a small craft around this hurricane is absolutely insane.

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Yeah, I agree. Not a thing in the world that they can do to help the boat with that monster.

May depend on the hurricane hole...around there there is a lot of significant terrain...find the right spot and it could be done...

Me...probably not for a cat 5...would have left to the south (not positive south as I only started looking this AM) over 2 days ago.

ragin cajun said:

Sad part of this is the local population are very poor. Most cannot evacuate to inland areas away from the brunt of the storm. I fear many lives will be lost. Wonder if the Mexican government is trying to evacuate as many as they can.
Any one who stays on board in a small craft around this hurricane is absolutely insane. I've been caught in a building tropical storm on a boat and I'll never want to go through that again much less a hurricane. Praying for those folks down there....

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Information of note is that while some evacuation is underway, there really isn't a means of quickly notifying people.

Evacuations are underway in areas expected to be hit hardest by Patricia. According to Vallarta Daily, as many as 50,000 people will be moved away from the coast and into shelters in the Vallarta-Nayarit area by Friday afternoon.

Sirens have been sounded along the coastline to warn residents and tourists that they need to evacuate, according to Ian Hayden Parker, a former resident of Atlanta, Georgia, who has lived in Puerto Vallarta for the past 10 years.

"Currently, my focus for Vallarta Daily is to get the word out about this storm," he told The Weather Channel. "For many of us connected, it’s hard to imagine people still would not be informed, but it’s true. We live in a resort town, but outside of the tourist zone, there is still a lot of poverty and people without computers, Internet, or phones. So this is an ongoing concern."​

I also read where a large resort notified all their guests and told them to meet in the lobby at 10:30 AM to be evacuated. They are to bring one small handbag and leave everything else in the bathtub of their room.

I've also read about local governments preparing and realized that they're distributing sand bags and preparing as for every storm they've previously seen, but give me the impression of not truly comprehending the potential force of Patricia.

I've seen in previous situations where the US state department has evacuated US tourists. To the surprise of some who were evacuated they were subsequently billed air fare by the State Department.

BandB said:

I've seen in previous situations where the US state department has evacuated US tourists. To the surprise of some who were evacuated they were subsequently billed air fare by the State Department.

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I would GLADLY pay that airfare to get out of harms way! The last storm American tourist were stranded for many weeks in horrid conditions before they were able to be lifted out.

ragin cajun said:

I would GLADLY pay that airfare to get out of harms way! The last storm American tourist were stranded for many weeks in horrid conditions before they were able to be lifted out.

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I would too, but was just reading people who complained about it. In fairness too they did sign a promissory note before the plane took off and they were only billed the equivalent of a regular coach fare, only a small percentage of the cost of the plane flown in to get them.

...200 mph sustained winds... still trying to wrap my head around that!

Now less than 60 miles from land and winds at 190 mph. They should already be feeling some advance impact with up to 100 mph winds.

the weather reports have the left overs of both systems funneling up the coast of texas. Ill be on the boat all weekend hoping the 12"+ of rain they are forecasting with gale force winds pass around it.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

Note: Once you have this site open click on a spot on the map and it will tell you the wind velocity and its direction.

Looks like Melaque and La Manzanilla are getting the full force as Patricia comes to shore. This it NOT good! My town suffered some damage years ago when Hurricane Pauline hit but it was nothing like what's happening now with Patricia.

what_barnacles said:

the weather reports have the left overs of both systems funneling up the coast of texas. Ill be on the boat all weekend hoping the 12"+ of rain they are forecasting with gale force winds pass around it.

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Gulf moisture and Patricia moisture are hitting Texas together and all the south and eastern sections of the state have flood warnings.

I am in Nuevo Vallarta, just 1/4 mile from Paradise Village Marina and we have been told that the eye of Patricia has altered course and is headed inland about 35 miles south of us near Cabo Corrientes. Good news, although it is still going to be a mess here. The wind is just starting to pick up and is still going to be in the 110-140 mph range. I will give more info as this unravels.

Confirms my belief not to reside or boat in tropical waters. Best of luck!

Does not look good, our thoughts and prayers to everyone in the area.......

Larmex99 said:

I am in Nuevo Vallarta, just 1/4 mile from Paradise Village Marina and we have been told that the eye of Patricia has altered course and is headed inland about 35 miles south of us near Cabo Corrientes. Good news, although it is still going to be a mess here. The wind is just starting to pick up and is still going to be in the 110-140 mph range. I will give more info as this unravels.

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What prep is the marina doing or has done? Good luck.

All that could be done was to batten down the place. A full on hit would have been devastating but it was only a glancing blow. A bit of wond and some rain. All in all it was the best we could have hoped for. It came ashore in Barra De Navidad, a beautiful coastal town that I have visited numerous times on Libertad. The destruction was amazingly brutal.

Well, off to sleep now.

Thanks. We spent 5 years cruising that area. I hope no one was in the lagoon at Barra.

USA TODAY quotes Mexican officials as saying there is only minor damage and no reported deaths. I find this very hard to comprehend. I suspect we'll get more info in a few days.

mbevins said:

USA TODAY quotes Mexican officials as saying there is only minor damage and no reported deaths. I find this very hard to comprehend. I suspect we'll get more info in a few days.

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The Sierra Madre mountains lie just to the south of PV and are a natural barrier to hurricanes. A direct hit is the result of the hurrricane going further north before heading inland. That was the original forecast. Luckily, it didn't happen.

To the south of where the eye landed would get the worst hit. As I understand it is somewhat sparsely populated on that coast. Any reports from down there?

It's now down to a tropical depression. While there is flooding, there's actually as much or more in Texas. As to the wind damage and deaths, the reports are good so far, but I'd expect some to be found later.

In many ways, Patricia was like Andrew. Powerful. Small in size. Moving fast. Andrew's damage was primarily wind related and the worst of it was in a small area. The big difference is that while Andrew hit south Miami, Florida City and Homestead, Patricia found the least populated area between larger towns.

I want rest easy until more is heard but I do feel some sense of relief that things were not as bad as they easily could have been. 30 miles in either direction and likely would have been far worse.

From all I can tell to, it appears that the people did an incredible job of setting up shelters and getting people evacuated or to those shelters and others did a good job of boarding up and finding safe rooms.