Hurricane Joaquin -- just FYI
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The poor folks in the Bahamas. Chris Parker's Wx Update, INTERIM TROPICAL, //WL2K R/ Fri2, 1p 10/2
RECON made its 1st pass near Georgetown, Bahamas just a few minutes past 11am, and sampled surface wind in this area ranging from 50-65k sustained, probably from the NNW.
Also sampled near SanSalvador, with 87k (likely from SE direction). SanSal is likely to continue clocking SE<S<SW, but could see Joaquin's strongest (120k sustained) winds later this afternoon-tonight.
Joaquin will move over RumCay this afternoon...at 11:27am RECON fixed Joaquin's center 23.53N/74.82W, 940mb. This position is less than 10mi S of RumCay, where winds may run to 120k sustained from various directions.
RECON made its 1st pass near Georgetown, Bahamas just a few minutes past 11am, and sampled surface wind in this area ranging from 50-65k sustained, probably from the NNW.
Also sampled near SanSalvador, with 87k (likely from SE direction). SanSal is likely to continue clocking SE<S<SW, but could see Joaquin's strongest (120k sustained) winds later this afternoon-tonight.
Joaquin will move over RumCay this afternoon...at 11:27am RECON fixed Joaquin's center 23.53N/74.82W, 940mb. This position is less than 10mi S of RumCay, where winds may run to 120k sustained from various directions.
The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.
The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.
The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.
The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.
The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.
jwnall
Moderator Emeritus
Interesting article in the NY Times. I will excerpt some of it. No political agenda here at all -- just interesting.
"For days, the models that guide the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts had been split over the future of Hurricane Joaquin. Different models were sending the storm to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina or to Maine or to Bermuda. The official forecast — which held that the storm would make landfall in the mid-Atlantic — was “low” confidence, as the center put it. It was an attempt to compromise between models that fundamentally disagreed.
Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.
If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.
It’s not the first time that the European model has led the pack. It’s almost a repeat of what happened with Hurricane Sandy, but in reverse. Three years ago, the European model anticipated, far in advance, Sandy’s unusual “left hook” into New Jersey. This time, the other models called for a left turn, and the European model dissented.
It’s a familiar story for meteorologists who have been calling for vast and attainable improvements in American weather forecasting for years.
Over the last few decades, faster computers, superior models and new data have allowed all weather forecasting to improve, by a lot. But the United States hasn’t quite matched that effort. It didn’t invest in computing power and models that kept up with the potential for better forecasts."
"For days, the models that guide the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts had been split over the future of Hurricane Joaquin. Different models were sending the storm to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina or to Maine or to Bermuda. The official forecast — which held that the storm would make landfall in the mid-Atlantic — was “low” confidence, as the center put it. It was an attempt to compromise between models that fundamentally disagreed.
Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.
If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.
It’s not the first time that the European model has led the pack. It’s almost a repeat of what happened with Hurricane Sandy, but in reverse. Three years ago, the European model anticipated, far in advance, Sandy’s unusual “left hook” into New Jersey. This time, the other models called for a left turn, and the European model dissented.
It’s a familiar story for meteorologists who have been calling for vast and attainable improvements in American weather forecasting for years.
Over the last few decades, faster computers, superior models and new data have allowed all weather forecasting to improve, by a lot. But the United States hasn’t quite matched that effort. It didn’t invest in computing power and models that kept up with the potential for better forecasts."
Ghostrider42
Veteran Member
El Faro has been found off Crooked Island, listing at 15 deg and taking on water. No word on the 33 on board. Not just a cargo ship, but a ro-ro vehicle carrier. Oh, well, there go the great bonefishing flats.
I wanted to share that information with others. Do you have any sort of link to a source?
markpierce
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One could pay extremely high property/sales/income taxes as well as high home/food/gasoline prices along coastal California so to enjoy relatively gentle weather. There are a lot of vacancies at the Vallejo marina, but not in central bay San Francisco.
I'll stay in West Coast Florida and take my chances:lol:
Capt.Bill11
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Wifey B: I was 13....you need to read more....hehe
I was NOT 13 when Andrew turned left and headed to South Florida.
I was moving the week that Andrew came ashore and living in South Florida. We had planned to have a nice, non stressful, non hurried move unlike all of my other moves which had been hurried. Andrew popped up, seemed to be heading north and not threat when it turned left and head for FLA! I made some quick calls, found out I could get the rental moving truck a few days early and we started packing. As the first bands of rain from Andrew moved in, I climbed into the moving truck, my mom handed me a bag of McD's hamburgers and I started driving. My parents lived north of where Andrew was forecast to land so they just had to head back home while I left the state.
The turnpike was a parking lot so I figured I would try I95 which was a parking lot. It took about 4 fours to travel what should have taken 30-60 minutes. 
I 95 had been expanded to more lanes in Boynton Beach but the idiots had left cones reducing the travel lanes. As I got by the coke point, FHP was moving those danged cones and letting the traffic flow. 
I managed to get to a rest area in SC, which is now closed, and went to sleep at 0200 in the morning. Got up and made it to NC, had breakfast in Raleigh before reaching my destination. NOT a fun trip. In the end, Andrew went south of where I lived but if it had hit a bit north....
Figured hurricanes when be in my past, but then we had Floyd, Fran and other storms.
What is freaky about Joaquin is that the storm is just SITTING there and not moving... The islands must be taking a beating...
Later,
Dan
Gulf Comanche
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Andrew blew up Baton Rouge. A week or so without power-no air conditioning. It was then that I met the smartest guy in town, the owner of Ivar's bar. He had rigged a generator and had a neon cold beer sign, working cash register, and booze. The place was packed, everybody all straggled looking, and glad to be out of the house. No AC there either but no one cared.
What is freaky about Joaquin is that the storm is just SITTING there and not moving... The islands must be taking a beating...
Later,
Dan
It's moving at 10 mph now and down to a CAT 3. Forecast to leave the Bahamas behind tomorrow morning and head for Bermuda.
FF
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"Forecast to leave the Bahamas behind tomorrow morning and head for Bermuda"
At least their cisterns are full.
At least their cisterns are full.
sunchaser
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As FF says, replenish the cisterns. The CA weather is indeed "nice" with no help past present or future for storms that bring water to assist the lawns, golf courses and crop lands.
The raging fires north of SF are a different form of nature sprung disasters. People there hoped and prayed for a hurricane type rainstorm event a few weeks ago.
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ranger58sb
Guru
Given some respite, now... thought it might be useful to note some other details that have been active... in this case... and in our case.
Our slip isn't real wide, fixed docks, in a small-ish marina. Not too well-protected from winds out of the north.
Our usual options are to stay in the slip, haul and block, or go elsewhere.
Not easy to stay in the slip; would mean staying aboard to adjust lines, partly to account for surge, partly to keep from bouncing off the piles all night. Not my favorite idea.
Usually OK to haul and block... except... in this case, the Nor'easter we've been enjoying -- not really related to Joaquin -- means the marina guys can't tow big boats around to the lift. Complicated this particular week by one of the lift operators leaving on his honeymoon yesterday. Can't begrudge him that!
I could move the boat to the lift around myself, of course (probably), but the list was long, too many in front of us...
We have in the past successfully moved the boat to one of the more protected marinas with new concrete floating docks and really high piles. Easy, my preference usually, except in this case, sea states on the Chesapeake were -- and still are -- not at all fun. There were 6-footers at one of the buoys up toward Baltimore last night, and in any case 5's and 4's have been the normal prediction for these several days. An anomaly here is that even 3' seas here in the Chesapeake, usually with a very short wave period, will often beat a small boat like ours up. Doable, but not fun. Boats are usually better off the crew, of course, but still... not my favorite thing to deal with.
Turned out... we've done not much at all. One extra spring line (so far) only just added this morning. And that's still about the Nor'easter. Once the Joaquin track prediction firmed up, decision-making got easier.
-Chris
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Water levels are up...almost overwashing the docks. More the result of the other weather systems coming up the coast. We have dodged J0aquin for now...
I'm behind the tree on the left..
I'm behind the tree on the left..
Given some respite, now... thought it might be useful to note some other details that have been active... in this case... and in our case.
Our slip isn't real wide, fixed docks, in a small-ish marina. Not too well-protected from winds out of the north.
Our usual options are to stay in the slip, haul and block, or go elsewhere.
Not easy to stay in the slip; would mean staying aboard to adjust lines, partly to account for surge, partly to keep from bouncing off the piles all night. Not my favorite idea.
Usually OK to haul and block... except... in this case, the Nor'easter we've been enjoying -- not really related to Joaquin -- means the marina guys can't tow big boats around to the lift. Complicated this particular week by one of the lift operators leaving on his honeymoon yesterday. Can't begrudge him that!
I could move the boat to the lift around myself, of course (probably), but the list was long, too many in front of us...
We have in the past successfully moved the boat to one of the more protected marinas with new concrete floating docks and really high piles. Easy, my preference usually, except in this case, sea states on the Chesapeake were -- and still are -- not at all fun. There were 6-footers at one of the buoys up toward Baltimore last night, and in any case 5's and 4's have been the normal prediction for these several days. An anomaly here is that even 3' seas here in the Chesapeake, usually with a very short wave period, will often beat a small boat like ours up. Doable, but not fun. Boats are usually better off the crew, of course, but still... not my favorite thing to deal with.
Turned out... we've done not much at all. One extra spring line (so far) only just added this morning. And that's still about the Nor'easter. Once the Joaquin track prediction firmed up, decision-making got easier.
-Chris
You certainly had a lot of conditions working against you. Your situation is why our hurricane plan has a lot of options but the caveat that we may not follow any of them.
One thing I would suggest for your slip. If there's a way to tie to the piles or posts of the dock using rings that will go up and down as the boat does. This keeps the boat's distance from the dock constant. Not always possible and still not the best situation but the one thing I would have seen as a possible option given your situation. And the one I'd never pursue is to stay there with the boat.
You also pointed out that the entire coast is already having flooding without any help from Joaquin. Had Joaquin come to land and then slowed down again like it did over the Bahamas, all on top of the other storms, this would have been frighteningly similar to Sandy.
Same look in Myrtle Beach, although don't think the ICW is up as much as in your photo.
ranger58sb
Guru
Yep, thanks, I've shopped on those systems. There are at least two. One boat here has the kind with balls strung on a line, and it looks like it'll work sorta-kinda, although they have some interference from their own immediate neighbors' lines on each side, too.
The other kind, with the hard-attached rod, could maybe work better in our slip, depending on what my own immediate neighbors cobble together...
-Chris
Fortunately, you're not going to get put to the extreme test this time. A well designed floating dock certainly makes things easier.
twistedtree
Guru
It back to Cat 4 now, and just shy of Cat 5. 155mph max sustained wind. I sure hope it stays off shore.
twistedtree
Guru
I take it back. It's now Cat 5.
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