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Old 10-02-2015, 07:08 AM   #42
Larry M
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City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
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Part of Chris Parker's 7am.

Could Joaquin still hit US E Coast? I think all of our ThuOct1 discussions remain valid. It would take a major surprise to bring Joaquin to the US E Coast. The 1st objective criteria we were looking at was Joaquin's 5am position this morning. If this position was S of 24N, it would suggest there's not much risk for US E Coast...BECAUSE the upper-TROF/ColdFRONT along US E Coast would weaken before it could pull Joaquin to the Coast. This objective test was met (Joaquin lies 23.3N).

The 2nd objective test is for Joaquin to lie anywhere S of 30N, or S&E of 30N/71W at the 5pm Advisory Sat3. Most credible forecast models predict Joaquin will pass this test as well, and, therefore, the US E Coast TROF will be too weak to pull Joaquin to the Coast.

However, Joaquin will help to maintain the overall tight gradient (Nor'Easter conditions) along & off US E Coast into Mon5.

Any offshore vessels between Bermuda and US E Coast/NScotia could be in the path of Joaquin...and Joaquin could pass close enough to Nantucket/CpCod and NScotia's S Coast to support backing NE<N@50 Mon5 (maybe Mon5-Tue6 for NScotia).
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