The Power of Persistence

Yes, while it certainly takes persistence to cross an ocean, I'm referring to a difference type of persistence, persistence as it relates to weather forecast skill.

Reading this article this morning from the April 17, 2015 edition of Science News, I thought it would illustrate the impact persistence has on a weather forecast.


A link to the rest of the article:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/onshore-hurricanes-slump

I have promised to publish a post about weather and weather forecasting. That post will be titled, Weather or Not, but this is not that.

This is more a little teaser, an appetizer. The above quote was taken from the most recent on-line edition of Science News, an absolutely wonderful magazine that now comes out every other week, as the on-line portion has gotten bigger.

Having read SN for more than 20 years, I've always looked forward to what juicy bits it would contain each week.

I’ve quoted the above portion because it highlights something that I will talk about extensively in my post, the power of persistence. So as the article above talks about how rare it is for the U.S. not to have a Cat 3, or greater, hurricane landfall; we have already gone 9 seasons without one.

These researchers still prognosticate that there is still an above even chance, 61%, that we will not have a landfall this upcoming season also.

I’m sure that’s predicated on the power of persistence. So even though this is far out of the ordinary, (no landfall), persistence is still hard to beat when it comes to forecasting.

In my upcoming post, Weather or Not, I will discuss: the impact of persistence on a forecast, how to evaluate the quality of a weather forecast, how a forecaster can be right 95% of the time; but still not make good forecasts and most of all, how you, the cruiser, should or should not use said forecast.

Stay tuned.

Good stuff. What category was Sandy? What have been the weather systems in West Africa during same period? Are Gulf Current temperatures any different during past 9 years? Many interrelations as I remember.

Just a year or two ago Fort Collins forecast a major hurricane season that fizzled, what says this group? Look forward to your future weather postings.

Sandy was NOT a hurricane when it made landfall.

Because it was downgraded so late in the process, IIRC, right at landfall, I often wonder if the landfall designation was political rather than scientific.

Seems like some people I know had their businesses covered for hurricanes, and others just had some general storm damage clause. Half got money, half didn't......wonder if lobbyists could exert that kind of pressure?

I hate conspiracy stuff, but in the USCG politics tried to change the way things were done or worded way too much for me.

"On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category*1 hurricane. Early on October*29, Sandy curved north-northwest and then[8]*moved ashore near*Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of*Atlantic City, as a*post-tropical cyclone*with hurricane-force winds.[1][9]"

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

This raises an interesting questions about the correlation between the official storm strength and the damage inflicted. Surely nobody who endured Irene or Sandy would agree that hurricanes aren't a present danger. In fact, correlation is generally uninteresting for anything other than dinner table conversation and headlines. Cause and effect is where the rubber meets the road.

Clearly a higher rated hurricane increases the threat, but there are many other factors too. The rating is JUST a measure of wind speed, isn't it? I think so. But in many of the more recent storms, rain fall and storm surge have been the dominant causes of damage. Does rain fall correlate to a storm's official strength? I have no idea. Storm surge is about wind speed, so there is some cause and effect there, but the other factors are the duration of that wind acting in a particular direction, and the alignment between high tide and the peak of the storm-induced surge. So basically the course the storm travels is at least as much of a factor in storm surge as wind speed.

Then there is rain fall. Irene caused all its damage because of the amount of rain fall. Is there any cause and effect relationship between a storm's category rating and the amount of rain fall? And the storm's course comes into play again. It can dump lots of rain, but if the storm is fast moving the total accumulation will be smaller than if the storm is slow moving or stalls.

I really look forward to hearing about the science behind this, and Richard is the guy to tell it. Blog on, my friend....

So maybe , as a follow up to Peter, Mother Nature's continual reshaping of the US East Coast has less to do with categories and more to do with moisture, surge and duration. This type of reshaping is unfortunately causing as much damage as the higher winds but lower rainfall events. Like what Bruce K is seeing in OZ right now, wet and hanging around.

When all is said and done, what type of storm events does civilization of East Coast of US need for water and aquifer replacement - Sandy, Katrina or Andrew?

Richard: the reasoning for the 61% probability estimate is strait forward: they have autocorrelation terms in the weather model, whereby the near term weather patterns "inform" the near term predictions. I would add that a 61 probability isn't vastly different than 50%, in otherwords, it's not strongly informative.


Jim
Sent from my iPad using Trawler Forum

Heres a tutorial on autocorrelation using weather as an example...
http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~dmeko/notes_3.pdf
And that's both the strength and the problem with weather models: the autocorrelative terms in the models have strong influence in the predictions. Breaking from the near term predictions requires strongly informative data, that may or may not be available.


Jim
Sent from my iPad using Trawler Forum

I fall into the group that doesn't consider anything less than a Category 3 to be major either, and don't get overly excited until Category 4, but for Sandy I'll make an exception. As it was the largest Atlantic Hurricane on record while a Category 2 off the coast, it's uniqueness and the extent of the damage done by it and the remaining storm post-hurricane force make it quite "major" in my mind.

Even Katrina's damage was far greater than the force of the storm would normally indicate as a Category 3.

I'll be interested in reading the "rest of the story" as I find a number of things regarding hurricanes interesting. First, that the European Model has been more accurate on US Atlantic storms than the US Model. This was especially significant in the case of Sandy. Second, that there seems to be a prevailing thought that hurricanes impacting a given area are far more frequent and more severe than they really are. When we travel back to NC, we get questions like "aren't you scared with all the hurricanes you get every year?" There were 8 named Atlantic storms last year and from their view you'd think all were hurricanes and all hit us. Ironically, Arthur was the strongest hurricane to make landfall since 2008 and it made landfall in Eastern NC and caused very little damage.

I think forecasters fall into a very difficult area weighing the need to adequately warn vs. the possibility of falling into what I call the "Chicken Little Syndrome." Television exaggerates that issue. We hear over and over "Hurricane So and So forming and could be on it's way here...more at 11". The Hurricane then never gets close. We lived in an area of NC with very little snow, but yet we got many "Snow Leads" on television every year. Well, ultimately it becomes like Chicken Little. You've heard they were coming, the sky was falling, so many times that then when it really is happening you don't believe it.

Do understand I'm not faulting meteorologists. Their content is often nothing at all like the headline. Headline is often "Snow on the way for this weekend. Find out at 11." Then the actual forecast is "While the front dropping snow on parts of Tennessee is headed our way, there appears very little chance we're see any snow from it."

Like most news, it's become sensationalized and separating the wheat from the chaff can be difficult.

Sandy was a big but pretty weak storm. The damage came from boats and structure that were not built to handle it.

I have traveled often up in the NJ and NY area and was always amazed at what folks had put right on the edge of the sea, and how low they built. My comments were "boy these folks sure are not expecting any storms!!". Well, they got one. Pretty weak, but pretty big.

Historically, that area DID get storms, but not often.

Here in NC, we also had lots of structures built where they could not tolerate storms. Most are gone now. The old NC beach building philosophy was to build cheap cottages on the beach, and if a storm ate it, go in the marsh and find the bits and build it again. They never built expensive stuff on the beach. Later structures are certainly expensive now, but generally built to tolerate at least a cat 3.

Darwin was right with buildings, too.

It annoys me to hear the NJ/NY folks being "shocked, shocked" at all the damage from Sandy. Look at the historical record and cyclones DO hit that area, just not as often as the south. If you build or own a storm-sensitive structure, there is a risk that a storm will eat it.

Believe it or not....1 month before Sandy I had a PhD Metro guy from Rutgers tell me we had more to fear from Cat3 storms coming up the coast than a lesser one that turned ninety degrees and hit head on.


Hate to say I told you so...but it was fun while it lasted.


I knew NJ and other areas I've been by were ripe to be decimated...the Chicken Little theory is alive and well all over. Having been at sea, on shore and on my trawler for other canes and Sandy in my boat...people including experts who haven't been through one seem to not get it.


Sandy was the first of probably 10 hurricanes I had to think about that I actually thought preparations were necessary. All the others...I waited till decision time and they all petered out or turned drastically, usually as predicted.


Sandy was one of the least predictable storms I ever lived through....but that's no excuse for a sand level. multi-million dollar mansion guy to think..."It won't happen to me."


For boat owners in the area...just like marina managers were clueless. Hardly any had ever been in anything like it. At least some of the old timers remembers what a hurricane is like but from a longer event in the 1962 March Storm or moved from areas that had previously had their butts handed to them.


One thing that supported the chicken little theory for the Jersey area was the previous year's Cat 3 Irene which was supposed to be bad and hardly was noticed when it went over jersey.

Ski in NC said:

Here in NC, we also had lots of structures built where they could not tolerate storms. Most are gone now. The old NC beach building philosophy was to build cheap cottages on the beach, and if a storm ate it, go in the marsh and find the bits and build it again. They never built expensive stuff on the beach. Later structures are certainly expensive now, but generally built to tolerate at least a cat 3.
.

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When I was young, I worked with a guy who had an NC beach cottage as you describe. He built it three times.

psneeld said:

Believe it or not....1 month before Sandy I had a PhD Metro guy from Rutgers tell me we had more to fear from Cat3 storms coming up the coast than a lesser one that turned ninety degrees and hit head on.


Hate to say I told you so...but it was fun while it lasted.


I knew NJ and other areas I've been by were ripe to be decimated...the Chicken Little theory is alive and well all over. Having been at sea, on shore and on my trawler for other canes and Sandy in my boat...people including experts who haven't been through one seem to not get it.


Sandy was the first of probably 10 hurricanes I had to think about that I actually thought preparations were necessary. All the others...I waited till decision time and they all petered out or turned drastically, usually as predicted.


Sandy was one of the least predictable storms I ever lived through....but that's no excuse for a sand level. multi-million dollar mansion guy to think..."It won't happen to me."


For boat owners in the area...just like marina managers were clueless. Hardly any had ever been in anything like it. At least some of the old timers remembers what a hurricane is like but from a longer event in the 1962 March Storm or moved from areas that had previously had their butts handed to them.


One thing that supported the chicken little theory for the Jersey area was the previous year's Cat 3 Irene which was supposed to be bad and hardly was noticed when it went over jersey.

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Every storm is different. I remember hearing people yelling though as to why didn't people move their boats. Well, the question would be move them where and when? Based on what? Most had no idea what they were dealing with and their boats were the least of their worries.

I have a friend who was in Miami when Andrew approached. She had a hurricane plan, but she didn't even go check on her boat. She was far more concerned with family. They did get their house shuttered and they evacuated as per the orders in their area. Her kids were terrified. She was very prepared but her boat slid so far down on her list of priorities.

We have hurricane plans. Many, based on different circumstances. But the emphasis of all is not to risk life over material things.

I read the stories of Andrea and how people followed the instructions given so well and, as a result, very little loss of life. However, the very next hurricane to head that way, everyone jumped in their car and headed north. Being in a car on the road is the worst place to be. Traffic backed up for hours and hours. Many of those people headed either up the coast or toward Orlando. Well, the hurricane missed South Florida but crossed the state through the Orlando area.

I lived for most of my childhood in FLA. We left the state when I was a "middle aged" child but moved back later. I can only remember one tropical storm that hit our place in FLA when I was a kid. We had a few tropical storms hit when I was a late teen and young adult but that was all until...

The weekend prior to my scheduled move to NC, Andrew decided to make a left turn and head to FLA. I got the moving truck a few days early, packed up and started driving just as the first rain bands hit.

Living in NC since then and we have been hit by quite a few hurricanes. Fran and Floyd were really bad. The land we own now still has trees on the ground from Fran. The destruction to some forests was pretty bad in Fran. Course, Hugo really did a number a few years before Fran to SC and NC.

There is an old quarry site in Raleigh that was used to chip up all of the down trees. The quarry looked like a valley but the chipped trees filled up that valley before the wood chips moved elsewhere.

Floyd was a 500 year storm in terms of rainfall. I went Down East a few times to help with the clean up and the destruction was unreal. Most of the water damage was not from a raging flood but due to a slow rise of the water. Houses and cars were destroyed by the water getting into the structures not the water tearing down the building or tossing the car around a tree. Very odd to see houses that looked perfectly fine at first glance but a closer look showed something else. I literally saw thousands of destroyed homes that looked just fine.

I was near one town that was flooded out, and in the trees a good 20 feet above your head, you could see flood water debris. How more people did not die on that flood plane is beyond me.

The crops turned black from the chemicals, fuel and sewage in the flood water. Just awful. During my first visit the flood waters were still rising in some areas and there was one place we could drive in no further. There was a National Guard truck that could drive in looking for survivors but thankfully the people had gotten out. A local family had an air boat, which is pretty unusual to see up here, and they had rescued many of their neighbors from the flood. A few weeks later we were back at that spot helping a family who were rescued by the air boat. They said the water had risen so fast they could not get out of the house. Their cars got flooded and what was freaking is that the headlights turned on under water. If the air boat had not gone through the subdivision they don't think they would have survived.

The water in this area was bad to say the least. It was down stream from a flooded out sewage plant. After we were done cleaning up that house, I took a VERY long bath and threw out my boots. What blew my mind is that there were people riding ATVs in that flood water! I think the contents of my septic tank would have been safer and cleaner.

A diary farmer lost about 100 cows. They were hauling off the dead cows in dump trucks which is a Twilight Zone image seeing dead cow legs point up from the back of a dump truck. Some of the cows got into a single wide trailer trying to escape the flood waters. The water destroyed the trailer with water damage but how do you remove a couple of dead cows that weigh thousands of pounds from a trailer?

The answer is you don't. You burn down the trailer. I have old photos somewhere of that trailer burned out showing the metal frame, metal mattress springs and cow ribs. We were not in the mood for BBQ after seeing and smelling that area.

Later,
Dan

Dan- I was here in Wilmington for Floyd- It looked like a pavement peeler on its way, but petered out into the rain event you described. Coastal, very little damage, but inland was flooded like nothing before.

A few days after the event, I went to the Cape Fear River in Wilmington and observed. Obviously the water was flowing fast as it was still draining from inland, but what was unreal was the color and odor of the water. Purple. And the odor was something I had never detected before, strong enough to weaken knees, and certainly not pleasant. Have no way to even describe it.

The storm flushed out all the agricultural holding ponds and fertilizers. The mixture of manure and nutrients created a dangerous brew. The combination devastated the fisheries and marshes on the coast. It was definitely a historical event in North Carolina.

BandB said:

Every storm is different. I remember hearing people yelling though as to why didn't people move their boats. Well, the question would be move them where and when? Based on what? Most had no idea what they were dealing with and their boats were the least of their worries.

I have a friend who was in Miami when Andrew approached. She had a hurricane plan, but she didn't even go check on her boat. She was far more concerned with family. They did get their house shuttered and they evacuated as per the orders in their area. Her kids were terrified. She was very prepared but her boat slid so far down on her list of priorities.

We have hurricane plans. Many, based on different circumstances. But the emphasis of all is not to risk life over material things.

I read the stories of Andrea and how people followed the instructions given so well and, as a result, very little loss of life. However, the very next hurricane to head that way, everyone jumped in their car and headed north. Being in a car on the road is the worst place to be. Traffic backed up for hours and hours. Many of those people headed either up the coast or toward Orlando. Well, the hurricane missed South Florida but crossed the state through the Orlando area.

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The sad truth of the matter is the Florida infrastructure is inadequate to handle the evacuation guidance that is issued. Heck, it barely handles the snowbird invasion.

Greetings,
Mr. BB. "Well, the question would be move them where and when?" EXACTLY! We'll be in Ft. Lauderdale for the upcoming hurricane season and I think we'll stay exactly where we are in the canal. We will remove canvas, double up lines and batten down the hatches etc. but essentially stay put. Where does one run to when one doesn't know which direction. The noted author Stephen Leacock once described someone who "flung himself upon his horse and rode madly off in all directions." Stephen Leacock - Wikiquote

Donsan said:

The sad truth of the matter is the Florida infrastructure is inadequate to handle the evacuation guidance that is issued. Heck, it barely handles the snowbird invasion.

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Actually far more people evacuate than are told to. Evacuation is ordered only based on concern for surge and so is only the easternmost area. Now, if all decide to wait until the last minute and then head north to Orlando, there is a problem. We have not been involved directly in a South Florida hurricane, only NC.

We'd decide what to do based on a combination of the forecast and any orders issued. There is a map of Fort Lauderdale evacuation zones. It shows the areas East of the ICW is the only zone for Category 1 and 2 hurricanes. The area between Federal Highway and the ICW is an evacuation zone for Category 3 and above, but then few of those have ever targeted Fort Lauderdale. Timing also would play a role for us. In some situations we would possibly evacuate by water. We even have a hurricane contract in NC just in case. 2/3 of the time we're not home so others would be taking care of things.

I can't even find the last time Fort Lauderdale was evacuated or had a hit from Category 3 or above. Wilma (Category 2) caused some damage downtown but was worse by the time it crossed to Naples. Wilma did cause damage to some dwellings in West Broward county. 1964 and 1949 were bad years apparently. Again, I wasn't here...wasn't anywhere yet.

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Mr. BB. "Well, the question would be move them where and when?" EXACTLY! We'll be in Ft. Lauderdale for the upcoming hurricane season and I think we'll stay exactly where we are in the canal. We will remove canvas, double up lines and batten down the hatches etc. but essentially stay put. Where does one run to when one doesn't know which direction. The noted author Stephen Leacock once described someone who "flung himself upon his horse and rode madly off in all directions." Stephen Leacock - Wikiquote

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We have fairly protected boat storage available so for us it would be more about whether to leave home or not and history says a storm forcing us to evacuate would be very unusual.

Our most likely situation is to be elsewhere when one is forecast.

BandB said:

Actually far more people evacuate than are told to. Evacuation is ordered only based on concern for surge and so is only the easternmost area. Now, if all decide to wait until the last minute and then head north to Orlando, there is a problem. We have not been involved directly in a South Florida hurricane, only NC.

We'd decide what to do based on a combination of the forecast and any orders issued. There is a map of Fort Lauderdale evacuation zones. It shows the areas East of the ICW is the only zone for Category 1 and 2 hurricanes. The area between Federal Highway and the ICW is an evacuation zone for Category 3 and above, but then few of those have ever targeted Fort Lauderdale. Timing also would play a role for us. In some situations we would possibly evacuate by water. We even have a hurricane contract in NC just in case. 2/3 of the time we're not home so others would be taking care of things.

I can't even find the last time Fort Lauderdale was evacuated or had a hit from Category 3 or above. Wilma (Category 2) caused some damage downtown but was worse by the time it crossed to Naples. 1964 and 1949 were bad years apparently. Again, I wasn't here...wasn't anywhere yet.

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Depending on the projected path of a cane, there could be evacuations all along the coast and even inland areas. Keep in mind there are a large number of manufactured homes in FL which are toast to wind damage. What usually happens is everyone tries to leave at the last minute hoping the trajectory will change. The worse nightmare is a cane that heads toward Miami and then about 40 miles out turns north and starts barreling up the east coast. You think traffic on I-95 or the Turnpike will be going anywhere? That is if you are lucky enough to make it that far west.

Our approach is different. We evacuate early and leave FL from mid May until mid Oct even though we have a home generator. Keep our boat on the Great Lakes. Hurricanes don't scare me but we choose not to potentially be inconvenienced by them. I have stayed through too many of them with boarded up windows and no electricity. 100% humidity in the summer without air flow isn't pleasant.

Donsan said:

Our approach is different. We evacuate early and leave FL from mid May until mid Oct even though we have a home generator. Keep our boat on the Great Lakes. Hurricanes don't scare me but we choose not to potentially be inconvenienced by them..

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Well so far we haven't been inconvenienced by any. I guess time will tell. History in Fort Lauderdale has been good, much better than the Keys or the Gulf Coast.

Ski in NC said:

...

A few days after the event, I went to the Cape Fear River in Wilmington and observed. Obviously the water was flowing fast as it was still draining from inland, but what was unreal was the color and odor of the water. Purple. And the odor was something I had never detected before, strong enough to weaken knees, and certainly not pleasant. Have no way to even describe it.

Click to expand...

Moonstruck said:

The storm flushed out all the agricultural holding ponds and fertilizers. The mixture of manure and nutrients created a dangerous brew. The combination devastated the fisheries and marshes on the coast. It was definitely a historical event in North Carolina.

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I saw the flooding on the Neuse and Tar rivers. The Tar was worse in that the land up there was just one big flood plain, at least in the areas I was working. Anything that was in a house, Walmart, gas station, farm store, farm, etc went into the water during the flood. Sewage from water treatment plants as well as the sewage from hog lagoons. Every cemetery we saw that was flooded had vaults pop out from the ground and some did float away. I did see the 100 dead milk cows being hauled out and any land critter that could not move fast to high ground drowned. Above and below ground fuel tanks leaked into the flood waters not to mention used oil tanks. Fertilizers from farms, stores and houses all went into that water. The stench of the water was unreal and just turned crops black.

How more people did not drown is a mystery to me. We had an elderly family member who had a hair appointment at a certain time every week for decades. The day after the storm was her hair day and even though there was no power and flooding in the area, she went to get her hair done. She was danged lucky that a man in a pickup truck saw her car get swept off a road and float down stream when she drove into flood waters. He had a cell phone and was able to get help. Twas her first and last copter ride. She was danged lucky it was not her last car trip.

She was also lucky in that the flooding was not so bad upstream of where she went swimming, and as a result, the water was not that dirty. It was just muddy run off not full of chemicals like it was further down stream.

I was shocked to see people voluntarily getting exposed to that that witches brew.

My first trip to help out, we did not have N95 masks to use when searching for bodies in houses. Even though we spent very little time in houses, and the water was already gone or peaked, mold had already started to grow, and we werer coughing up multicolored goo from my lungs after a few hours.

The second trip Down East, I bought plenty of N95 masks. They helped a bit but when you are clearing the contents out of a house you are just going to get exposed to the mold. The masks helped but we still were coughing up multicolored goo. But at least we could leave and go home to our warm and dry beds in our own house. One couple we helped almost drowned and were rescued by the previously mentioned air boat. The wife had just finished Chemo and the stress of the flood and exposure to chemicals, filth and mold did not do her a bit of good. I will always wonder if that flood killed her well after the waters had receded.

At least when she saw my team roll in clean up her house, she knew she had some help, we were going to Get It Done, and someone gave a dam...n. Seeing someone show up to help was a huge moral boost for the people we helped then and people I helped at other disasters. Seeing people in shock, days and weeks after disasters like this is sobering and an understatement.

Later,
Dan

psneeld said:

Sandy was NOT a hurricane when it made landfall.
Because it was downgraded so late in the process, IIRC, right at landfall, I often wonder if the landfall designation was political rather than scientific.

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twistedtree said:

This raises an interesting questions about the correlation between the official storm strength and the damage inflicted.

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BandB said:

I fall into the group that doesn't consider anything less than a Category 3 to be major either, and don't get overly excited until Category 4, but for Sandy I'll make an exception. As it was the largest Atlantic Hurricane on record while a Category 2 off the coast, it's uniqueness and the extent of the damage done by it and the remaining storm post-hurricane force make it quite "major" in my mind.

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Ski in NC said:

Sandy was a big but pretty weak storm. The damage came from boats and structure that were not built to handle it.

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I noticed a fair amount of discussion re: Sandy strength, catagory etc and thought I'd post some info I assembled DURING the storm.

First my disclaimer... I'm not a meteorologist and have NO formal training in the area. My Wx learning has been DIY - taking the USPS Wx course, reading, studying, and visits to our local NWS office.
I am an volunteer instructor for Seneca Sail & Power Squadron and was in the middle of a 10 week Wx course when Sandy was heading for NYC.
I changed the schedule and we covered Hurricanes the week Sandy hit NJ /NYC.

See the attached file 5 Reasons hurricane Sandy will be (was) epic for some interesting info re: Sandy... it may help clarify the many points raised in previous posts.

Sandy is a perfect example of the fact that damage is sometimes not related to a storm's rating (alone). Frequently there are other complicating factors that can have a significant impact... exactly the case with Sandy and, I think, why there are many questions about forecasts & models being incorrect and not representing the resulting damage accurately. To a large degree Sandy was "A Perfect Storm" in that several events and occurrences when combined had a more devastating impact than expected based on categories alone. The fact is Sandy WAS a MAJOR STORM ( record breaking low pressures along the East coast) but NOT a major hurricane - and several factors made the results even worse.

Hope this helps

The problem I have with Cat X huricanes is its just based on wind speed. Physical size of the storm changes the impact because of the duration of the storm conditions. Just like a 5 Richter earthquake that lasts a full minute does more damage one that only lasts 10 seconds.
Sandy was a large area storm.
I can remember a Cat 3 hurricane eye ('F' named) going by around 1993 only 115 miles off the beach in Ocean City NJ. The winds in town barely made it to 15 knots with no rain. Hurricane Gloria stayed off the beach and was beating our town 60 miles inland.
Hurricanes need a different rating like max wind speed times a storm diameter or duration factor.

High Wire said:

The problem I have with Cat X huricanes is its just based on wind speed. Physical size of the storm changes the impact because of the duration of the storm conditions. Just like a 5 Richter earthquake that lasts a full minute does more damage one that only lasts 10 seconds.
Sandy was a large area storm.
I can remember a Cat 3 hurricane eye ('F' named) going by around 1993 only 115 miles off the beach in Ocean City NJ. The winds in town barely made it to 15 knots with no rain. Hurricane Gloria stayed off the beach and was beating our town 60 miles inland.
Hurricanes need a different rating like max wind speed times a storm diameter or duration factor.

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The Cat X situation really doesn't explain the situation but it is something every Joe, Dick and Mary can understand as far as a general picture of the degree of risk.

I normally look at the National Hurricane Center website and follow their 3 hour or so updates during the season even when up in MI. In my view, other important indicators are the size of the storm, atmospheric pressure, speed of the storm and the side of the storm that is likely to impact our residence. On landfall, storm surge is a risk but another often overlooked risk is tornadoes that are spawned from the storm. The tornadoes often do the worst damage and may not follow the path of the storm.

The NWS and the government in general has a real issue in that the public tends to expect perfectly accurate forecast of largely unpredictable situations. I don't see a real way to give a better warning than using Cat X.

Whenever there is a storm going to make landfall in the US, the talking weather heads on the Weather Channel and other TV stations make it sound like the end of the world is near. That should be enough to scare off most of the public except when people are walking the beaches and swimming in the background. No matter what the situation, there are a certain percent of the population that will ignore or avoid what they are told of the risk. I confess to having been one of them who did not evacuate on every evacuation warning/order. It wasn't for not realizing the risk but due to lacking infrastructure in FL, I felt attempting evacuation could put me in a worse situation.

JDCAVE said:

Heres a tutorial on autocorrelation using weather as an example...
http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~dmeko/notes_3.pdf
And that's both the strength and the problem with weather models: the autocorrelative terms in the models have strong influence in the predictions. Breaking from the near term predictions requires strongly informative data, that may or may not be available.


Jim
Sent from my iPad using Trawler Forum

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Which is the power of persistence.

psneeld said:

Sandy was NOT a hurricane when it made landfall.

...

"On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category*1 hurricane. Early on October*29, Sandy curved north-northwest and then[8]*moved ashore near*Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of*Atlantic City, as a*post-tropical cyclone*with hurricane-force winds.[1][9]"

Hurricane Sandy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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Because Tropical Cyclones (we call hurricanes) and Extra-Tropical Cyclones ( we call Low Pressure Centers) get their energy in different ways.

THe waters off the Mid-Atlantic states in October are far colder than tropical waters. Hurricanes need that warm water.

Lows on the other hand strengthen from other sources, in particular, cold air at the upper levels producing instability and increasing low level convergence.

Sandy became a Nor'easter.

BandB said:

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I think forecasters fall into a very difficult area weighing the need to adequately warn vs. the possibility of falling into what I call the "Chicken Little Syndrome." Television exaggerates that issue. We hear over and over "Hurricane So and So forming and could be on it's way here...more at 11". The Hurricane then never gets close. We lived in an area of NC with very little snow, but yet we got many "Snow Leads" on television every year. Well, ultimately it becomes like Chicken Little. You've heard they were coming, the sky was falling, so many times that then when it really is happening you don't believe it.

Do understand I'm not faulting meteorologists. Their content is often nothing at all like the headline. Headline is often "Snow on the way for this weekend. Find out at 11." Then the actual forecast is "While the front dropping snow on parts of Tennessee is headed our way, there appears very little chance we're see any snow from it."

Like most news, it's become sensationalized and separating the wheat from the chaff can be difficult.

Click to expand...

That right there is the problem as I see it.
Weather has become a major income producer for the media.

Therefore they sensationalize EVERYTHING and the more they scare you, the more you will watch, listen and the money pours in.

The second issue that a number of you have alluded to is subsidized flood insurance. It's still not clear to me why the federal government started doing this, it has been going on for at least 40 years.

When you build your house on a flood plain, whether it be on the beach or off the Mississippi, you don't pay the full cost of insurance at that location.

Why, I don't know, the the Fed's pay the insurance companies the difference.
That's why you see homes continually being rebuilt in the same locations.

Lastly, someone also mentioned this, some boaters seem to have little sense of risks.

I read this story of a sail boat couple who having done some cruising in the NE that summer and fall, came down the Hudson River, and upon hearing that Sandy was coming, put their boat on the hard in Staten Island.

That seemed to have worked well, even though their boat was dominoed, little damage was done.

But then, as they were lifting it, the strap broke and they dropped the boat. ouch.

My point is, had I had Dauntless in the area those days, I would have taken her up the Hudson a few miles and she would have been fine.

So why anyone would think the coast of Staten Island was safer than the Hudson, I will never know nor do I really care to find out because at that point ...

Lastly, I talked to our insurance underwriters who came to a Krogen Rendezvous. I was pleased that my insurance was dirt cheap, half of what I pay for my 10 year old Jeep.

He response was that they have found Krogen owners will take that extra step to protect their boats, while many others, just assume the insurance company will cover them.

Richard in NYC

I understand the metro....what I don't understand is just because a storm changes it's source of energy, people have to have additional insurance....


....another disclaimer that may be added down the road

I don't depend on television for my weather forecast. Honestly, don't depend on it much for my news. I can go online for news and select in depth stories related to the lead story. I can get beyond the sound bite.

There are some good meteorologists in television news but that's now what gets them promotions or the next job. It's ratings. Much like a good college coach who his athletes go to class, get good grades, take legitimate subjects, but all that matters is wins and losses. Both are judged based on scorecards. I hear the weather lead talking about storms. I go check other resources and see 10% probability. I hear the name of every tropical storm on television, mainly while watching another show and getting the tease. I read elsewhere and quickly see that the storm mentioned is not close to land, not close to being a hurricane, and not expected to ever be an issue.

As to the floor insurance subsidies, they have been greatly reduced and more is being done. They originated to protect people from losing their existing homes. However, they became more widespread

Starting Jan. 1, 2013, premium rates for subsidized non-primary residences will begin increasing. Rates will increase 25 percent per year until they reflect the full risk-rate. Later in 2013, there will be premium rate increases for additional categories of subsidized properties, including business properties, substantially damaged or improved properties, severe repetitive loss properties, and any property that has incurred flood-related damages where claim payments exceed the fair market value of the property. Rates for these additional categories of properties will phase in at a rate of 25 percent per year until they reflect full risk rates. Additionally, in late 2013, FEMA will begin to apply full risk rates to policies written for newly purchased property. Beginning in 2014, premium rates for other properties, including non-subsidized properties, will increase as new or revised flood insurance rate maps become effective and full risk rates are phased in for these properties. These premium rate increases will include properties in areas that have received new or revised flood insurance rate maps since July 6, 2012 (the date of enactment of the new law). Additionally, even if you build to minimum standards today, you will be subject to significant rate increases upon remapping if your flood risk changes in the future.

The program was designed for "homes located in a high-risk flood zone (i.e., zones beginning with an “A” or “V”) and built before the first flood insurance rate map became effective, and that have not been substantially damaged or improved."

So the gist is that flood zones were created to warn people and flood insurance subsidies were implemented to take care of homes built before the warnings. So the statement, "When you build your house on a flood plain, whether it be on the beach or off the Mississippi, you don't pay the full cost of insurance at that location" is no longer true. In fact you go into a high risk pool and pay the rates for that group.

Now it is complicated when flood maps are redrawn and someone suddenly moved from a low risk zone to high risk is in big trouble.