If you elect to enter Apalachee Bay via Government Cut, you'll save quite a few miles over going via Carabelle, but use caution for shoaling near where the cut enters the Bay. We followed a local shrimper outbound two years ago and as I recall we favored the green side to keep to the deepest water. Once in well into the cut, we moved to mid-channel and had good water all the way out into the Gulf. As you proceed northbound from the cut into the Bay, I suggest you pass the range marks fairly close keeping them to starboard. From there to the ICW you'll have decent water. BTW, our draught is 4'2". Give a shout on channel 16 to ask for local knowledge as you approach. Obviously shoaling in that area is subject to change over time. Always best to get in touch with locals with the latest info. As to the thunder bumpers, about six years ago I delivered a sailboat from Cortez (near Bradenton, FL) to Panama City. We sailed through a line of storms during the night about 60 NM south of Panama City, and were easily able to circumnavigate the most vigorous cells using radar. But with the moon nearly full, you should be able to do the same visually. Bon Voyage.