Hurricane Ike

Well, it keeps swinging more southerly. The spaghetti models showing it spitting out into the GOM now, then turning northerly heading for the panhandle of FL, mostly. Everybody on the gulf coast needs to be watching this one.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

Well dammit. It looks more and more like it's coming right for Galveston Bay. As of now, half the spaghetti models show it coming right to us, the other half show S. Texas. NOAA shows it heading right this way as well.

I bought plywood this morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/210222.shtml?5day#contents

-- Edited by Keith at 15:47, 2008-09-08

Keith
You are so right. Every indication is for a near direct path to Galveston. I'd prepare for that, and hope for the best. It doesn't take much to change the apparent path, but you don't even want to be close to this one. My guess is landfall somewhere between Corpus and Holly Beach, LA.
Be safe, Carey

The latest models have shifted even more SOuth.....only one shows directly towards Galveston and the 2 are slightly South of Galveston and the rest go right over Port Oconnor. I am leaving tomorrow morning to the other side of the world and not being back until Sat. morning.............

Quoting Yogi Berra "It ain't over till its over", we'll see what happens when Ike hits the Gulf. BTR pretty well blown up by Gustav, still living on generator and constant gas/battery/you name it*search. But, things improving, there was a guy on the radio this afternoon bellyaching about Cox Cable not showing up and him not having cable service even tho he got power back 3 days ago. Generator and window a/c my best friends now.

Think we've dodged the bullet again in the Galveston Bay area. This morning's predictions have it going into very far S. TX or even Mexico now. Whew!
Oh yea, for those of you who have a harmonica, pick it up and sing along....
____________________
EVACUATION BLUES
I get up one morning
Weather Man on T.V.
He frantically tells us
Of the e-mergency

Big winds a blowin
And its headed our way
Dont you hunker down
Dont think you gonna stay

Chorus
I got the Red Ass
Get my big ass outta town blues
Hurricanes a comin
And its on all the news.

Ply board all your windows
Take in them trash cans
You been knowin the drill now
Youre a Nash Roberts (Max Mayfield) fan.

Get your butt in the Buick
And gas up that car
Better fill the tank up
Cause youre gonna hafta go far

Chorus

Run down to the Wal-Mart
Standing in that long line
Bottled water and batteries
People losing their minds

Cans of Vienna sausage
Dont forget potted meat
Bags of nasty food
You pray you never eat

Chorus

Pack up Fluffy and Fido
Jam them all in your van
Load the rest of the family
Leave town while you still can

Get out on the highway
With your ATM dough
Five miles an hour
Thank God for Contra-Flow

Chorus

Driving North to Nashville
Maybe to Lafayette
Kids in the back seat
Screaming Dad, are we there yet?

No room at the motel
No room at the inn
Well try the next town over
And start all over again

Chorus

Pile up at your Mammas
Flop at your best friends
Crack open a six pack
Stay glued to C.N.N.

When the hurricanes over
And we get the all clear
Get back in the damn car
And get the hell outta here.

Chorus

All this heartache and sorrow
All this work and expense
Just think about Katrina
And it makes alotta sense

We all hate to do it
But you do to survive
When you get your ass home
Be glad that youre alive

Hey ya'all
Just sitting here in the hinterland, celebrating the fact that I don't have a boat at risk in the gulf. You are probably right Keith, as to having dodged this bullet. I hope you are right. I just found a new website today for following Atlantic hurricanes. It offers a few nice features not found elsewhere. http://www.stormpulse.com/ Give it a look. Do remember Yogi's quote, It ain't over... Remember a few of our hurricanes of the last five years that made radical, unexpected turns at the last minute.
I'll likely be coming to the Gulf next week, to work either Gustov or Ike (FEMA). Save me some Gumbo and Boudin

Be safe, Carey

Carey if you get to Thibodaux or Houma area and feel like talking boats a while drop me a line. I might even be able to scratch up some Gumbo
Steve W.
stwillett at aol.com

Steve
I will definitely do that my friend. I managed the first Disaster Recovery Center in Raceland, post Katrina, in September '05, and stayed in Houma. I also worked Grand Isle, La Fourche and Terrebone Parishes the following year, so I know your area, and love the people. I have no idea where I will end up this time, as assignments are based on background and who worked last. We'll see, as it is always a crap shoot. Somehow though I always end up down the bayou. Thanks for the invite. I'd love to talk Gulf boating with you.

Carey

PS - Can you tell me the name of that authentic Cajun Dance Hall in Houma?

Carey, I believe there is a place near the Civic Center called A-bears for Heberts
I'm not sure if it is still open. Even though I am married to Boudreaux I'm not much on Cajun dancing. There is a horrible looking place near there called "1921" no dancing but just about the best oysters and boiled seafood you can imagine
Let me know if you get this way, I may need a blue tarp! just kidding!
Steve

Steve
I'm not into dancing myself, but hanging out drinking a couple beers and watching is well worth the effort. The place I'm referring to was in the neigborhood of the tunnel on MLK way. Off to the right before the tunnel as I recall. It was a kind of funky looking place with the dance hall entrance down the side, and a bar in the front. I'll check it out next time I'm in town.
Looks like Ike is really trying to be somebody.

Take care, Carey

Hope all you guys down there are buttoned up in safe harbors!

One of IKE's feeder band passed through here, Thibodaux, LA, around midnight and must have damaged the repairs done on the local grid power, went out who knows when it will be back, It is gusting to 40 so the power guys can,t get up in their bucket trucks safely.
I have several cousins in the LaPorte TX area I hope all in that area stay safe this is one big storm.
Good luck
Steve

Keith, my boat is in Rockport and I figured it was in for a direct hit when I left town Wednesday. Then you end up getting it. Sorry, my friend. Give us a damage update when you can.
Good luck,
Hal

Once the power is back and y'all get a chance to catch your breath, I hope to hear from everyone that they made it thru Ike with minimal problems. Thinkin' of ya.

Gary

Sorry to have been quiet for a few days, but power was out here a day or
two. I'm in League City, right off Galveston bay. We're the spot with the
big bullseye on our town. Tremendous damage around here, but thankfully my
boat at South Shore Harbour marina doesn't have a scratch, and only a fence
down at my house. Others didn't fare nearly so well. More later, but you can
check out pictures at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/keith77/ Lots of boats
on land, roads, sunken, and a 60 footer wedged in between two houses. Yike!
Power and water is back on now, hopefully for good. Stores are reopening,
things getting back to normal, but there is one heck of a cleanup ahead for
this area. Watergate marina was slammed, and looks like the Houston yacht
club was also hard hit.

Here's a couple of teasers...

Keith:

A few questions:

Any guess on how*many boats went down for the count? Is it possible that home or boat insurance will be impossible to obtain in the future in that area? Will locals rebuild in the same places? Thanks

I saw many boats that were damaged beyond repair, at least for what they were worth.* I'm sure it is in the hundreds.* Some marinas were almost untouched.* Legend Point and Waterford Harbor are two that I saw with very little boat/dock damage.

I spoke with an employee in the office at Watergate Marina and she said that she fielded dozens of calls from folks looking for space.* Most were looking for floating docks under 40 feet.* It seems like most of the survivors were smaller boats in marinas like Houston Yacht Club which was pretty much destroyed from what I'm hearing.* I do know that most of the 50' plus crowd at Lakewood Yacht Club received major damage.* It is my personal opinion that some of these marinas just don't have the docks to handle boats of this size.

My wife and I helped some friends remove their belongings from the second floor of their house in San Leon (6 miles SE of Kemah).* Some surveyors from the Harris County flood district (even though San Leon is in Galveston Co.) came into the home while we were there.* They took some measurements and determined that the water was about 6' 2" high inside of the home that had a ground floor elevation of 8'.* Over 14' of water in that area of homes.* Many homes were completely destroyed.

When I asked if they would rebuild on pilings they responded that they will not be building again at that location.* It was just too devastating for them.* Very sad.* Their home was originally built in the 1950's and you can't build anything that low anymore.

From what I am hearing the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area also received very dangerous surge.* Has anyone heard any reports on the marinas over there?

DD

I can't even begin to guess how many boats were messed up. Like Doug said, in the hundreds at least, maybe thousands. Some are still sinking. Boats that were listing a few days ago are on the bottom now. No power to charge the batteries, and the bilge pumps get exhausted.

Insurance will always be available... just look at FL. Now how much it'll cost is an entirely different story. There are no agencies regulating what boat insurance costs, unlike cars and homes. Every time there's a storm, they use it as an excuse to make huge hikes in the rates. I know they suffer losses, but from what I've seen the increases WAY more than cover those losses, and increase their profitability.

When the water level rises to the point that the floating docks are above the pilings , the damage is even worse with the docks on the boats.

FF

sloboat wrote:

Anybody know how Harborwalk Marina in Hitchcock area fared?

Click to expand...

Rumor has it that the homes are fine and that over half of the boats were destroyed.* I heard someone mumbling this and they had it second or third hand as well so take it for what it is worth.

FF wrote:

When the water level rises to the point that the floating docks are above the pilings , the damage is even worse with the docks on the boats.

FF

Click to expand...

The Baytown Marina under the Fred Hartmann bridge had this happen.* They are right where the whol bay constricts to become the Houston Ship CHannel land cut.* SO they are basically at the point where the storm surge will be the absolute worst.* The whole marina floated off and is on land.* The "marina" is now just an inlet of water and pilings...no piers.

There are some compelling pictures that hat been posted of boats and dinghys impaled by pilings. it is clear that they floated higher in the surge and then came down on top of the piling (especially those that had the pointed caps on top). I don't want to denigrate in any way the damage or losses that have been suffered, but as an example, we had a "100 year" flood on the Columbia River in 1996, and the lesson is that the pilings needed to be higher than the adjacent dike (levee). The analog is that piling for a floating dock need to be 2' (or so) higher thatn the expected surges - which becomes an economic (and to some extent aesthetic) issue for marina developers. So I agree that floating docks are a better alternative, but

sorry hit the enter button too soon
only if there is adequate consideratin to expected surge.

I want to emphasize, our heart goes ot to those who lost homes, boats, dreams in this event.

Having been in the business ,

" The average boat owner doesn't know if the dock he is renting for $300 a month will hold his boat or not and most marina just don't do much after the initial build in the way of replacing out dated docks."

The usual boater doesn't CARE , until the storm.

Do you think the $300 a month boater would pay $500 a month for a reasonably safe dock ?

DREAM ON!

I'm sure they WON'T , until the named storm comes within a few days , then they will demand a discount for a weeks dock rental.

Over the years I have seen dozens of boats , sold to the insurance co , by the owner.

When a hurricane is in the cards , and the owner uses old 1/2 line to tie to a sound mooring , what else is it ?

Vinny wrote:
The point is there doesn't seem to be any controlling body that requires a marina to be in compliance to some standard.* The average boat owner doesn't know if the dock he is renting for $300 a month will hold his boat or not and most marina just don't do much after the initial build in the way of replacing out dated docks.

Maybe insurance companies could have an incentive program for marinas to improve their docks to a set standard with a discount on their premium or rate.

Click to expand...

Vinny, great point.* Look at the dock cleat that I found attached to a friends mid-ship deck cleat. I think that this particular floating dock was installed nearly 20 years ago.* You can see that there is almost nothing left of the galvanized bolt.* When the cleat was in place it looked very secure!

I am starting to hear that many newer docks are using SS hardware.* However, I have bought some very substandard SS hardware that came apart in about 2 years of exposure to a salty air environment.* The stuff was probably some cheap Chinese SS that really shouldn't have been called SS.

But requiring them ( seat belts)solved the problem.

Nope ,

Gov force and fraud , the threat of a ticket or loosing ones license by any cop that thinks he didnt see a seat belt , and an internal buzzer "solved the problem".


"The point is there doesn't seem to be any controlling body that requires a marina to be in compliance to some standard. "

NO problem , but that $300 slip may cost $2,300 , and to insure the "Other" renters you may have to provide a monthly fitness survey , proof of $3,000,000 liability insurance, only use gov rated dock lines and all the rest.

I have attempted to work with with Co that HAD gov contracts.

IMPOSSIBLE.

A small yard that could crank out a nice 70 ft steel head boat would ordinarily have 4 guys a building and 2 in the front office , one "a girl" the other the foreman , responsible for ordering the materials and overseeing the job.

AFTER a single Gov contract , the same 4 guys would still be hammering away , but 15 to 20 would be in the front office , filling out papaerwork.

Guess what the price of a newbuild went to?

And you want Gov Approved docks?




FF

I put some more up at my site over the past few days: http://www.flickr.com/photos/keith77/

Also, here are all the links I've collected. They contain lots of pictures of all the damage from personal viewpoints.
http://jakeabby.com/cb/*Mostly Crystal Beach area
http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2008/09/aftermath-of-hurricane-ike.html
*http://tinyurl.com/4ng5ds**Pleasure Island, Port Arthur, TX - Bud Byram's house
http://picasaweb.google.com/ehmorrell/HurricaneIke# Pictures of the area taken from a boat. Lots of sunken boats and marina damage.
http://www.tpicks.com/pictures%20people%20have%20sent%20me.html*Probably the largest collection, taken from all over.
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html*Story and 28 photos from the Boston Globe.
http://rklowe.zenfolio.com/p219036363*Lots of boat and marina pictures, taken from the water.
http://rklowe.zenfolio.com/p194264673*Another batch, taken from land.

Keep in mind this was only a strong category 2 hurricane. Imagine what a hit from a cat. 4 would do...