This is the storm to keep an eye on

OK GOM, Florida and east coast boaters this is the storm to keep your eyes on.




000
WTNT44 KNHC 211450
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

A BURST OF CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1010 MB AT NOAA BUOY
41040...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT
FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE UKMET
ON THE RIGHT EDGE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE LEFT EDGE
SHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...THEN IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT. THE TRACK IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT 24 HR OR SO...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR...SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST DURING THAT TIME HAS BEEN LOWERED BY 5-10 KT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.1N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.5N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/1200Z 20.5N 77.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WAT

This looks like it might barely become a F1.

Big deal, thunderstorms happen almost EVERY PM with similar winds.

The only boats that will have problems are those "sold to the insurance co.".

We can use some rain!

FF said:

This looks like it might barely become a F1.

Big deal, thunderstorms happen almost EVERY PM with similar winds.

The only boats that will have problems are those "sold to the insurance co.".

We can use some rain!

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Lacking any actual Hurricane experts on this site, I guess we are supposed to take your prediction of F1 (A tornado rating), as an actual rating for a Hurricane, which would be correctly rated at Category one for the lowest level hurricane?

I am told that I and my coworkers should speak publicly only of that which we know. Not bad advice.

MY opinion on ANY subject is just that ,simply MY OPINION.

Here is a few maps to bring you up to speed.

Drawn by "experts". [FONT=trebuchet ms,sans-serif]www.spaghettimodels.com[/FONT]

From the present plots Lake O is outside the hurricane area .

So in our Hurricane Hole (8 O Clock to Lake O ) will get some breeze , and probably loads of rain.

As we are in a slight drought the rain is very welcome , and since it looks like the eye will be 100 miles out from shore , 150+ distant from us , the breeze may blow away some mosquitoes but no boats.

FF

Oh there's always gonna be a few........If they don't break their mooring, they'll sink from the surge and tight lines.

FF whadda ya charge if I'm concerned enough to run inland to ride one of these out?!

Try this for minimal.Have someone drive down the hiway at 75mph in a rainstorm and put your head out thru the sunroof. That is minimal.!!!!

waterfront said:

Try this for minimal.Have someone drive down the hiway at 75mph in a rainstorm and put your head out thru the sunroof. That is minimal.!!!!

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Lol No be realistic. Have someone drive down the road in the conditions you describe backwards and open the door because you forgot to XXX and have to go out into the storm to take care of it! As the door is ripped from your hand and sprung backward, you begin to wonder if those folks in Wyoming might have something right after all! Now you hang as much of your body as possible out the door in your personal flogging outfit aka slickersuit! Oh what fun. I have a funny story about my ex and "It's just a Cat 1, why are you doing all that?"!!

FF said:

This looks like it might barely become a F1.

Big deal, thunderstorms happen almost EVERY PM with similar winds.

The only boats that will have problems are those "sold to the insurance co.".

We can use some rain!

Click to expand...

Now it looks like it'll make Cat2, and I wouldn't be suprised if it went to cat3.

If it stays offshore then it could be bad. If it moves onshore in south Florida then it won't have much time to get too strong.

It really needs watching. Allot could happen.

FF whadda ya charge if I'm concerned enough to run inland to ride one of these out?!

Most folks work an arangement out sometime in the fall.

All my heavy duty dock space is spoken for , as is the good spots my neighbors have.

There is a great anchoring spot just East of us , Google Map

Turkey Creek Ortona FL 33471 , and you will see a lolipop looking bit of water next canal to our East. About 60 ft deep , good sandy bottom and frequently empty.

You have to get past the bridges before the breeze gets to 35K .

FF

Greeings to all from the projected landfall bullseye...Gulf Shores, AL. We're holed up in Homeport Marina, one of the few places that doesn't drive off patrons when a named storm threatens. Even with floating docks, what concerns me most is someone breaking free during the storm and bouncing around the marina like an 8-ball. You should see how some of these yahoos have secured their vessels!

Captain K said:

Greeings to all from the projected landfall bullseye...Gulf Shores, AL. We're holed up in Homeport Marina, one of the few places that doesn't drive off patrons when a named storm threatens. Even with floating docks, what concerns me most is someone breaking free during the storm and bouncing around the marina like an 8-ball. You should see how some of these yahoos have secured their vessels!

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Why doesn't the marina tie them up correctly to protect their docks and the other boats?

Captain K, good luck. I hauled out in Pensacola. Having rode out Ivan and Dennis, I would say we are in for some fun. Spent more time prepping the boat than the house! But then again this isnt the first rodeo..
You should do well. Tight lines! Landfall is at a rising tide so surge shouldnt be too bad for you that far inland. Hopefully Pirates Cove survives.

If they don't see to it, somebody else might. Know what I mean?

Hi Blue Heron--thanks for the well wishes. Same back at you. I was at Island Cove Marina in Bayou Chico there in Pensacola when Ivan came through in '04. Nasty as hell, but made it through without a scratch. Then I was in Gulf Shores when Katrina and Dennis hit us in '05. Lucked out then too. There's no such thing as a good hurricane, but at least Isaac looks mild compared to both Ivan and Katrina...for whatever that's worth!

After a lot of preparation for the predicted winds and rain of the NE part of the storm, I awoke about 3:50 AM with a 55 mph recording that lasted about three minutes. There was more after that, but actually I never saw anything worse than that up to now. I'm looking at the back half of the storm circulation for us here in Key Biscayne (Miami), and I don't see much organization. Key West reported that for them, the storm has been a dud. I had completely tarped the roof and window area of my pilothouse and the wind never really challenged it. There are still the tornado warnings, but I think we won't be getting much more. I'll be praying that the storm saves most of its moisture for the drought areas.

Update for Patricia Louise. While securing new dock lines about 3 hours ago the dock master informed me that my hurricane plan was not acceptable. Everyone had to go. We are currently in the Gulf heading west. Slidell tonight, then to our slip in the Tchefuncte River tomorrow. This thing is getting to be a PITA!

Good luck Fork!

You have my sympathy. Makes me appreciate I needn't winterize or hurricanize here in heavily regulated and taxed California.



In KKMI boatyard's berthage in Santa Fe Channel, Pt. Richmond, CA yesterday.

Thanks BH. Things are going smooth. Seas not bad at all. Sunset!

Why doesn't the marina tie them up correctly to protect their docks and the other boats? __________________


Because the storm surge may bring in 10-15 ft of extra water.

Most marinas do not have pilings long enough to not see all the boats and docks go floating off downwind .

Up a river 30+ miles the surge may be less , depends mostly on time.

The best protection is a few locks in the river .

...Because the storm surge may bring in 10-15 ft of extra water...

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When we were in Mexico, fortunately storm surge was not an issue, just wind and rain. If surge was, we would have been screwed. Here's a picture of Hobo just before a Cat 1 hit: 13 lines with 5 tied direct to pilings. And here's why marinas want you to leave.

Good luck all.

Larry M said:

When we were in Mexico, fortunately storm surge was not an issue, just wind and rain. If surge was, we would have been screwed. Here's a picture of Hobo just before a Cat 1 hit: 13 lines with 5 tied direct to pilings. And here's why marinas want you to leave.

Good luck all.

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Kinda defeats the ability of a floating pier??

I think I've seen less tangled spaghetti.

My son left for Okinawa on Saturday, fortunately he is still sitting in Guam. Typhoon Bolaven just blew over Okinawa with winds up to 160 MPH, now THAT'S a storm.

Sounds like minimal damage though. They say everything there is constructed of solid concrete and they know how to deal with storms.

For us here in Key Biscayne (Miami), there's little left but a steady breeze with the occasional gust to 40 mph or so. I ordered 4 sets of Tide-Minders last Tuesday and paid nearly 100 bucks for overnight delivery just in case we had a high surge, but they never came. The consequence is waking up overnight and adjusting the lines to prevent shock loading in the big gusts. I just sent them a nasty e-mail saying "thanks for nothing". Tide-Minders are a great idea and very effective in surges, but hardly useful when you can't get them in time. They had three good days to deliver "overnight".

I hope you get them and store them up for the next time. They're handy tools to have.

Forkliftt said:

Kinda defeats the ability of a floating pier??

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You're right. Fortunately at the time, the tidal range was ~2'. When the docks started breaking apart it was a scramble to hold it together and it was done the 'Mexcian' way.

Got a message from Tide-Minders saying "Sorry, accidentally sent them regular ground delivery". They arrived about an hour ago. It was a real surprise to see a late 150 mile long band of nasty weather that was perfectly aligned and headed over us. It still was able to spit out a few 50 mph bursts and a heck of a lot of rain. It's moved a bit east now, headed for West Palm Beach. I don't see much more.

As of monday evening looks like we are going to be right near the center of the cone when Isaac come ashore Tuesday.
Started out today driving to the fishing camp in Cocodrie, Louisiana prepping things and moving the Whaler from its hoist to the trailer for a trip home. Spent the afternoon at the Trawler in Houma La. adjusting and doubling up on the dock lines. I'm in a good location as far as the winds go but might have problems if the tidal surge is as predicted 3-6 feet at the coast I'm thinking around 4' in Houma.
Lots of rain and strenghtening wind tomorrow.
Good luck to all
Steve W