The Inverted Yield Curve

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The two places I lived in New England lost there industries because of enviromental issues, I am sure labor was a part of it. Where I grew up the city next to the town we lived in was full of manufacterers, Everything from transformers to golfballs Aerovox to Titalist and textile even Morse twist drill most busineses were on the river which emptied into the harbor and my whole childhood nothing grew in that harbor not even a barnacle. The damage was mostly from PCB's. It became a superfund sight. The majority of those businesses were shut down for polluting.
The second place we lived where I raised my family was southern Maine. They had a Paper mill Industry and a saw mill lumber industry that was booming. the sawmill/lumber industries were put out of business or pushed into Canada because of an endangered owl and the claim was they were destroying there habitat when they would harvest an area. The papermill business got slowly pushed out because of poluting the local lakes and the smell ( the state has a warning to not eat the fish from the lakes more than once a week). Now the largest industry in Maine is the Lobster industry. There are no jobs left in Maine last year the population in New Hampshire exceeded Maines. Maine is three time the size.

Sounds like you're talking long ago and long before I was in manufacturing. However, there is a lot of lumber and paper still in the US so many companies having no issues dealing with the regulations. Lumber issues have nothing to do with their manufacturing process but a lot to do with where they intend to get their trees.

As to the others you mentioned along the river, I don't know what each had as a problem, but some of them shouldn't have or should have easily fixed it. The primary nature of their business isn't an issue. I do know businesses that have used everything as an excuse for leaving when all it amounted to was labor costs. Just look at how the NE was once filled with apparel and then it all moved to the SE. Lower costs in general but significantly lower labor prices at that time.
 
Sounds like you're talking long ago and long before I was in manufacturing. However, there is a lot of lumber and paper still in the US so many companies having no issues dealing with the regulations. Lumber issues have nothing to do with their manufacturing process but a lot to do with where they intend to get their trees.

As to the others you mentioned along the river, I don't know what each had as a problem, but some of them shouldn't have or should have easily fixed it. The primary nature of their business isn't an issue. I do know businesses that have used everything as an excuse for leaving when all it amounted to was labor costs. Just look at how the NE was once filled with apparel and then it all moved to the SE. Lower costs in general but significantly lower labor prices at that time.

I am sure labor was a part of it like you point out especially because the different unions had a pretty solid hold on the manufacturers in New England. I think and hope that american workers without the unions could offset ther cost with increased production if ithe right incentives were in place (piecework ect..). American Workers do better with a carrot versus a stick.
 
I am sure labor was a part of it like you point out especially because the different unions had a pretty solid hold on the manufacturers in New England. I think and hope that american workers without the unions could offset ther cost with increased production if ithe right incentives were in place (piecework ect..). American Workers do better with a carrot versus a stick.

Sorry, but American workers can't do more work than any other. Now, many plants in central and South America are very inefficient, but that's not due to the worker ability. I've been involved with incredibly efficient plants in Jamaica and, also American but off shore, in Puerto Rico. One of the least efficient I ever was involved with was in Australia but it wasn't because the workers couldn't or wouldn't. The plant had 9 unions in one plant.

Now, I will agree the typical Asian plant for chips and boards and computers is very efficient but the apparel plants are not. They don't provide the workers a lot of basic tools and use old equipment and don't engineer much as the cost of inefficiencies is small. Still 60% efficiency at $250 per month wages versus 100% at $2000 per month is still 80% less cost.

Now, I do believe I could build boats in the US and deliver to US customers competitively to building in China and delivering to US customers. They aren't labor intensive. Same with farm machinery.

Hearing all this then why do we have apparel plants here? We wanted to. I still hurt from the elimination of US jobs even though I was very late in the process. Also, had a young idealistic girl who got me into this whole mess on top of my young idealistic wife and it was decided.

How do we make up for the cost differential? We don't compete on price, we compete on styling and quality. Is there an identical garment made cheaper elsewhere? We don't think so, because we don't think there's an identical garment. We're not producing huge volume basic long running styles, not the same thing season after season. We also priced from the outset knowing our production costs. We have incredible industrial engineering and have invested in the best automation and most efficient equipment. We haven't replaced operators with equipment but given them equipment that allows each to produce more. Same equipment would work anywhere, but manufacturers elsewhere aren't going to pay the price. So we close some of the cost gap.

We don't have the shipping or import costs.

Then a huge one, turnaround time. From cut to deliver to customer, we can do in less than 8 weeks, as little as 4 or 5 weeks if we must. We can design and prototype today and start producing it tomorrow. Overseas you have to develop and finalize the line months ahead. We have a style that's selling great and we need more, we can get more and maximize sales. Overseas, often what you plan initially is all you can get. Also, we can wait and if we put in a style that's not selling we can reduce the forecast and not make more. Overseas you contracted long before you have sales data. So maximize sales and reduce closeouts. None of that is reflected in product cost but sure impacts the bottom line.

We produce most of our product in our own plants, but one exception and you'd never guess. We bought a company that was in NY and contracted a lot there. Well, small run, low quantities, amazing what they can do. There's a new facility set up with many manufacturers in Brooklyn, many that were forced out of Soho. We play around with exclusives and items costing double our normal lines and small orders on them but we can turn them around so fast in those NY shops and we've examined them all and none of them are sweat shops, all employees legitimate and all paid right.

We only sell in the US and Canada so no exporting which would eliminate many of our advantages. We are very proud of our quality and it's not you can't equal it elsewhere, but all of management is here. We're not trusting third parties or people on the far side of the planet.

Perhaps we could still make more manufacturing elsewhere but we couldn't be as proud or happy of what we're doing and we're establishing something for the long run, not to make money and run. Our CEO turned down a lot of business this year.

There are some small successful textile and apparel operations still here but not many. If you're going to do it, you have to do it better. I know a knitting mill that is successful as I've known the owner for years. His knitting machines will produce nearly double what the old machines will and because of how they operate, one operator can handle more machines. He can service the apparel company that is 50 miles from him and his largest customer in ways no one overseas could.

Here's a business that can't move away. T-shirts can be made anywhere. Just knit, die, sew. Simple, right? What about T-shirts for sporting events, like those you see on the shelves immediately after the Super Bowl. You knit the fabric and wait until the last minute to die it. You follow the games. You decide at the start of the playoffs what colors to bet on but you watch closely each round. You're happy if the teams are basic teams using Navy or Blue. You don't want the Redskins to win as maroon isn't one of your main colors and they aren't that popular as a team. The Giants or Cowboys are who you want. You premake enough to ship the day after the game but you must have more within 10 days. I'm not in that business but once knew a girl who was in customer service for a company that was. She and her husband were watching the Super Bowl. She didn't like football and he was shocked she was watching. Also, she had a rooting interest. She told him she was rooting for team x because their color was navy and had tons made and ready since it was a very popular color. She knew the primary and secondary color of every team in the league. The team no one ever wanted to win and so far it hasn't been a risk is the Cleveland Browns. Brown T-Shirts? What would you do with them if they didn't win? And their secondary color of Orange isn't much better. Patriots are great with Nautical Blue. But even better, if they lose, every store in the NE will still sell out, you just screen print at the last minute as AFC Champs or Super Bowl Participants. Some stores have even sold Super Bowl Champion shirts when they lost.

Point is that you can't produce here for what you can elsewhere and freight doesn't equalize light products. But you can take advantage of other things you can do. If I'm producing hundreds of thousands of Levi 501 though I can't afford to do it in the US, if I'm producing a hundred thousand sheets for Marriott, I can't afford to do it in the US.
 
Tariff barriers only promote domestic production replacing targeted imports if there is scope for domestic production. If not, it`s just another tax, paid by those who can afford ever more expensive imports as tariffs ratchet up.
But,this is predicated on POTUS motivation being to kick start local production, which seems to be heading south not north. If it`s really a cold war against China waged for some political purpose, or by now just for vanity, the concept of replacing imports with local production is a mere smokescreen.The delightfully vague "Make America Great Again" can mean whatever you want it to.
On the Yield Curve Inversion, yesterday one of our better financial writers said it has origins in the massive Quantitative Easing (ie printing money) that took place as a fix for the GFC in USA and Europe from 2009 on.
Mostly issued as Govt bonds. With so much money created, there is a glut, so supply and demand operates to devalue interest rates. Lower interest rates impact savers, who spend less,less spending is less financial activity,and so it goes on. Financial stimulus being applied here may make it`s way around the economy, or it may go to reduce people`s mortgages, or into a Bank at as little as .5%, for a rainy day. Probably a bit of both spending and saving,it`s too early to tell, but people are definitely nervous.
 
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Sorry, but American workers can't do more work than any other. Now, many plants in central and South America are very inefficient, but that's not due to the worker ability. I've been involved with incredibly efficient plants in Jamaica and, also American but off shore, in Puerto Rico. One of the least efficient I ever was involved with was in Australia but it wasn't because the workers couldn't or wouldn't. The plant had 9 unions in one plant.

Now, I will agree the typical Asian plant for chips and boards and computers is very efficient but the apparel plants are not. They don't provide the workers a lot of basic tools and use old equipment and don't engineer much as the cost of inefficiencies is small. Still 60% efficiency at $250 per month wages versus 100% at $2000 per month is still 80% less cost.

Now, I do believe I could build boats in the US and deliver to US customers competitively to building in China and delivering to US customers. They aren't labor intensive. Same with farm machinery.

Hearing all this then why do we have apparel plants here? We wanted to. I still hurt from the elimination of US jobs even though I was very late in the process. Also, had a young idealistic girl who got me into this whole mess on top of my young idealistic wife and it was decided.

How do we make up for the cost differential? We don't compete on price, we compete on styling and quality. Is there an identical garment made cheaper elsewhere? We don't think so, because we don't think there's an identical garment. We're not producing huge volume basic long running styles, not the same thing season after season. We also priced from the outset knowing our production costs. We have incredible industrial engineering and have invested in the best automation and most efficient equipment. We haven't replaced operators with equipment but given them equipment that allows each to produce more. Same equipment would work anywhere, but manufacturers elsewhere aren't going to pay the price. So we close some of the cost gap.

We don't have the shipping or import costs.

Then a huge one, turnaround time. From cut to deliver to customer, we can do in less than 8 weeks, as little as 4 or 5 weeks if we must. We can design and prototype today and start producing it tomorrow. Overseas you have to develop and finalize the line months ahead. We have a style that's selling great and we need more, we can get more and maximize sales. Overseas, often what you plan initially is all you can get. Also, we can wait and if we put in a style that's not selling we can reduce the forecast and not make more. Overseas you contracted long before you have sales data. So maximize sales and reduce closeouts. None of that is reflected in product cost but sure impacts the bottom line.

We produce most of our product in our own plants, but one exception and you'd never guess. We bought a company that was in NY and contracted a lot there. Well, small run, low quantities, amazing what they can do. There's a new facility set up with many manufacturers in Brooklyn, many that were forced out of Soho. We play around with exclusives and items costing double our normal lines and small orders on them but we can turn them around so fast in those NY shops and we've examined them all and none of them are sweat shops, all employees legitimate and all paid right.

We only sell in the US and Canada so no exporting which would eliminate many of our advantages. We are very proud of our quality and it's not you can't equal it elsewhere, but all of management is here. We're not trusting third parties or people on the far side of the planet.

Perhaps we could still make more manufacturing elsewhere but we couldn't be as proud or happy of what we're doing and we're establishing something for the long run, not to make money and run. Our CEO turned down a lot of business this year.

There are some small successful textile and apparel operations still here but not many. If you're going to do it, you have to do it better. I know a knitting mill that is successful as I've known the owner for years. His knitting machines will produce nearly double what the old machines will and because of how they operate, one operator can handle more machines. He can service the apparel company that is 50 miles from him and his largest customer in ways no one overseas could.

Here's a business that can't move away. T-shirts can be made anywhere. Just knit, die, sew. Simple, right? What about T-shirts for sporting events, like those you see on the shelves immediately after the Super Bowl. You knit the fabric and wait until the last minute to die it. You follow the games. You decide at the start of the playoffs what colors to bet on but you watch closely each round. You're happy if the teams are basic teams using Navy or Blue. You don't want the Redskins to win as maroon isn't one of your main colors and they aren't that popular as a team. The Giants or Cowboys are who you want. You premake enough to ship the day after the game but you must have more within 10 days. I'm not in that business but once knew a girl who was in customer service for a company that was. She and her husband were watching the Super Bowl. She didn't like football and he was shocked she was watching. Also, she had a rooting interest. She told him she was rooting for team x because their color was navy and had tons made and ready since it was a very popular color. She knew the primary and secondary color of every team in the league. The team no one ever wanted to win and so far it hasn't been a risk is the Cleveland Browns. Brown T-Shirts? What would you do with them if they didn't win? And their secondary color of Orange isn't much better. Patriots are great with Nautical Blue. But even better, if they lose, every store in the NE will still sell out, you just screen print at the last minute as AFC Champs or Super Bowl Participants. Some stores have even sold Super Bowl Champion shirts when they lost.

Point is that you can't produce here for what you can elsewhere and freight doesn't equalize light products. But you can take advantage of other things you can do. If I'm producing hundreds of thousands of Levi 501 though I can't afford to do it in the US, if I'm producing a hundred thousand sheets for Marriott, I can't afford to do it in the US.

Good insight and info into manufacturing, so to sum it up We can't do it cheaper but we can do it Better.
 
Good insight and info into manufacturing, so to sum it up We can't do it cheaper but we can do it Better.

We can do some things with greater advantages that make it worthwhile. You work within the confines of the world you live in. Years ago I had to move production off shore to protect jobs on shore. I was making commodity products that had no room for higher costs. Those products for those customers can't be moved back to the US.

It's no different than retail and brick and mortar. It works when the right products and done certain ways. Successful retailers today have found a way to integrate brick and mortar and online.
 
Pardon me while my eyes roll back into my head as I tie a left-handed bowline without looking. Wake me when we get back to boats.
 
Pardon me while my eyes roll back into my head as I tie a left-handed bowline without looking. Wake me when we get back to boats.

Wifey B: Obviously you made a wrong turn into this thread as the door was clearly marked. :rolleyes:

As to your left-handed bowline, it sure looks right handed to me. I'd suggest more practice. :rofl:
 
That's the point of this article on inversion. Investors are paying higher prices for long term bonds so the % yields are less than they are for short term - indicating more people are parking money for longer, indicating less confidence in the global economy. And in equities.

However my point in posting this was to explain in simple language what the inverted yield curve is.

I'm very interested in the topic. I knew most of this but its always good to be refreshed. But, I don't think this is the correct forum for this.
 
I'm very interested in the topic. I knew most of this but its always good to be refreshed. But, I don't think this is the correct forum for this.

Really?

Why?
 
I'm not the only one that noticed. I'm just the one that called you on it.


Because, as I said early in the thread, there were, on the Internet, 4.1 million mentions of "trump inverted yield curve". Presumably most of those had the intellectual integrity to admit that they were Trump Hate. This thread did not have the intellectual integrity of the others.

After you start a thinly disguised Trump hate thread every week or so for a while, it's kinda predictable.

It's in the news today, the FED Chairman said no recession. Sorry Trump haters.
 
We can do some things with greater advantages that make it worthwhile. You work within the confines of the world you live in. Years ago I had to move production off shore to protect jobs on shore. I was making commodity products that had no room for higher costs. Those products for those customers can't be moved back to the US.

It's no different than retail and brick and mortar. It works when the right products and done certain ways. Successful retailers today have found a way to integrate brick and mortar and online.

So we can"t do it it cheaper but on somethings we can do it Better!

My only lingering thought would be for new technology to be developed to solve a problem or increase efficiency the need or demand has to be there. Right now cheap labor in China and such are allready solving that problem, if that was not an option then you would have an increased need or demand for those problems to be solved with improved or new technology.
The examples I would use would be Uber, Lyft and maybe Airbnb. Those businesses use technology to improve efficiencies shared resources.

Bud
 
Wifey B: Obviously you made a wrong turn into this thread as the door was clearly marked. :rolleyes:

As to your left-handed bowline, it sure looks right handed to me. I'd suggest more practice. :rofl:

Practice is good, but you are looking at it upside down. :socool:

I read the first post and the last one before this and made a snap decision it was not about boating. :banghead: Doubt there was much in between about boating either. Look, ot don't look for me elsewhere on TF.
 
I yearn for the days of 4% - 6% tax frees.
 
So we can"t do it it cheaper but on somethings we can do it Better!

My only lingering thought would be for new technology to be developed to solve a problem or increase efficiency the need or demand has to be there. Right now cheap labor in China and such are allready solving that problem, if that was not an option then you would have an increased need or demand for those problems to be solved with improved or new technology.
The examples I would use would be Uber, Lyft and maybe Airbnb. Those businesses use technology to improve efficiencies shared resources.

Bud

Uber and Lyft may not be the best examples as neither one is profitable.

Yes, we can develop equipment, but then so can China and they have it in certain industries.
 
Practice is good, but you are looking at it upside down. :socool:

I read the first post and the last one before this and made a snap decision it was not about boating. :banghead: Doubt there was much in between about boating either. Look, ot don't look for me elsewhere on TF.

I am not sure what your point is, apart from confirming that this was the right forum for this topic?

Harbor Chat (30 Viewing)
Friendly, professional, informal exchange of "NON-boating" topics. Political comments, government policy, weaponry, religious and social issue discussions are off-limits in this forum.
 
Practice is good, but you are looking at it upside down. :socool:

I read the first post and the last one before this and made a snap decision it was not about boating. :banghead: Doubt there was much in between about boating either. Look, ot don't look for me elsewhere on TF.

Wifey B: It's in Harbor Chat.

Harbor Chat Posting Rules and Guidelines
Friendly, professional, informal exchange of "NON-boating" topics. :)

So, you're right, it's not about boating. Now I'm trying to figure out what "ot" means. Can mean Off Topic but generally capitalized. :ermm:

Also, not supposed to be political comments, government policy, weaponry, religious and social issue discussions are off-limits in this forum. I don't think Menzies initial post was any of those things, just a concern that recessions may follow certain market behavior.

You're right I was looking upside down. :eek: Now, I know why we use port and starboard and not left and right. :)
 
Uber and Lyft may not be the best examples as neither one is profitable.

Yes, we can develop equipment, but then so can China and they have it in certain industries.

Thats true they havn't shown a profit yet. But look at Amazon they got away with it for years. Growth seems to trump profit on new technology
 
I am not sure what your point is, apart from confirming that this was the right forum for this topic?

Harbor Chat (30 Viewing)
Friendly, professional, informal exchange of "NON-boating" topics. Political comments, government policy, weaponry, religious and social issue discussions are off-limits in this forum.
If it was a boating topic, it would be in the wrong place.
 
What nonsense. Do people pay good money for that kind of advice?

“Coincidence is not causation.” Author Unknown
 
What nonsense. Do people pay good money for that kind of advice?

“Coincidence is not causation.” Author Unknown

Which post are you referring to? Which "advice."

Explain your quote's relevance, especially what you think the coincidence is.
 
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Inverted yield curve and 4-8X overpriced stock market

There is much more involved than many think.

USA has effectively been in a depression for many years, all covered up with lying propaganda of the actual health of the economy, supplanted with huge debts in all areas, and the US Treasury Dept manipulating up the stock market, using the people's money, and killing diligent investors far on the correct side of fair value. When the market goes up, the economy and society worsens as the middle class loses from the widening wealth divide.

Actual real GDP growth negative for most all the past 20 years and BEFORE accounting for the typical 5 to 7 percent of GDP yearly increase in the national debt. Note also states debt is around $7 trillion.

So could we go into a recession with the inverted yield curve? That's a loaded question. The answer is, it doesn't make sense as we are in worse shape than in a recession currently.

The middle class is being hit 24/7 with lying propaganda. Those who are not asleep realize their cost of living is going up, their bank interest still mostly hijacked, and if investing based on historical valuations of the stock market for an economy in the toilet compelling one to short the market and being unjustly forced to lose, and know there is no economic recovery.

I dug into the BLS number a few years back to arrive at a 26% unemployment rate. Yes, I excluded the groups that should not be included. I estimate the actual unemployment rate is now 24%, and this does not mean an improvement when the quality of jobs keeps going down. Sure you hear about all the many months of 200K jobs added per month TO FOOL THE UNINFORMED PUBLIC as with population growth we need about 170K new jobs added to be at BREAK-EVEN! Where are the acclaimed economists to point to this? Where are the media pundits on this? Why must I have to come out and show the sham of what's going on? It's a conspiracy or the broad public including the popular economists take too much of the government's figures at face value, not questioning the validity.

Armed with immense knowledge and of knowing in bad times PE ratios compress to about half of normal (and normal is a PE around 12 to 13, not 15-16 as many would like you to believe as the higher range is greatly influenced by the ONE TIME effect of the middle class HURTING THEMSELVES by piling into the stock market since the 1990's), it points to large and mid-caps as 4 times overpriced and small caps at 8X overpriced status. So why wouldn't people be wanting to buy bonds to push yields down? I wonder why many of these persons do not short sell the market as greater returns should be made unless they have greater faith in the haters of humanity in both the US Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to keep manipulating up the stock market against fair value and thereby ruining society and crippling the economy. I will make this clear again, the middle class gets hurt when the stock market goes up, even when those in the middle class go long the market and are getting nominal gains. Think hard on this and you should be able to figure it out, hopefully.
 
Good call Real Economy. With no fixed yard stick to gauge anything by, GDP, CPI, unemployment, poverty and cost of everything, you name it, much wool can be pulled over the eyes of the average person. Every time I here a talking-head financial genius on TV say "we are just going to print the money" its like fingernails on a caulk board. The US does not devalue its currency by printing money anymore. We haven't done that since the mid 1950's. We devalue our currency by creating money out of thin air electronically. The only paper bills the US prints today is to replace the worn out bills that are return by the banks. As a percentage of real inflation adjusted GDP this is a tiny fraction of what it was in the 50's when half the population was still paid in cash and no average person had a credit card, direct deposit or even a checking account. Some people had saving accounts in little books like a passport.
 
Damn, Real Economy probably found us with a Google Search and joined just to post that.

Have to applaud him for the effort though :D
 
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Good call Real Economy. With no fixed yard stick to gauge anything by, GDP, CPI, unemployment, poverty and cost of everything, you name it, much wool can be pulled over the eyes of the average person. Every time I here a talking-head financial genius on TV say "we are just going to print the money" its like fingernails on a caulk board. The US does not devalue its currency by printing money anymore. We haven't done that since the mid 1950's. We devalue our currency by creating money out of thin air electronically. The only paper bills the US prints today is to replace the worn out bills that are return by the banks. As a percentage of real inflation adjusted GDP this is a tiny fraction of what it was in the 50's when half the population was still paid in cash and no average person had a credit card, direct deposit or even a checking account. Some people had saving accounts in little books like a passport.

:facepalm: Seems the admins need to check the IP Address of "first ever post" Real Economy and Pro Maritime or Boat.

Wonder what They will find?
 
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Real Economy,Please tell us about your boat?
 
Real Economy,Please tell us about your boat?

Wifey B: He doesn't have one. The economy is too bad. :rofl:

So another member choosing a second id to hide identity or someone just finding us at random?

I think there should be a new rule. You should have to make 10 quality posts before you go off the deep end on a rant. :eek:

I'm not even getting into how I feel about what he posted, I don't like people who have never participated in the forum showing up just to be controversial. :angry:

V..e...r.....y suspicious.
 
What they would find if they cared to is one who is trying to inform the public of what is really going on. I propose actual solutions addressing the underlying problems. I contacted dozen in Congress but they continue going after the superficial nonsense and thus never addressing the widening wealth divide and manipulated up stock market. All the big names who complain about the wealthy gobbling up the wealth of this nation, I contacted and asked them under the FOIA to obtain the records of the US Treasury Dept manipulating up the market since March 2009, and particularly on Dec 26, 2018, a day that SHOULD live in infamy as the market got manipulated up like no time ever in history. I wrote the Federal Reserve over three hundred times to give them a piece of my mind. I doubt anyone has done that much.
 
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Suspicious of what? I know someone who participates here and he sent me a link to this story via email. So you tell me why logically or for any other reason why my words must be considered suspicious. I do not follow your line of reasoning (or whatever emotions trigger you to say what you did). So this site shouldn't allow me to opine based on what?
 
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