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Old 08-23-2014, 02:39 PM   #621
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Old 08-23-2014, 02:50 PM   #622
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Just sent some texts to Richard with data from current, 48 and 96 hours surface charts along with some wave and wind data.

The only person who has the most complete weather information is Richard.

We might have more data but the accuracy of the data is questionable. Richard does know what is happening at his location. He can watch the barometer and temperature. He knows the size of the waves, their period, and direction. He knows the wind direction and speed. He can see the clouds. He can see the changes in all of the above which is just as important.

We can only look at the forecasts which have changed in very important ways over the last several days. The forecasts are based on computer programming, and in some cases human opinions, on what is happening thousands of miles at sea. Richard can make predictions with the REAL data at his position.

NONE of this is certain which is what makes it interesting, challenging and yes, risky.

If one is going to do long ocean crossings in a traditional trawler there is just no way to outrun the weather. One is going to get hit by storms. One can avoid the worst part of most storms but one is still going to have bad weather. The front that has been moving slowly across the Atlantic is going to hit Richard at some point. His only option to avoid it would be to head to Spain or Portugal and wait for another weather window. He would then have to implement his first plan to France, then to the UK and finally Ireland. Nothing wrong with that plan either. If he tried to head back to Ireland from Spain/Portugal, he still has the same distance to cover and the same weather risks.

Richard is still heading north to Ireland. I think that is what I would do too.

If you are going to cross oceans expect to the ocean to spank your a...ss. Its going to happen. One just needs to minimize the a...ss spanking.

Now if we could afford a Dashew FPB 64 we could really minimize risk. Dauntless could easily get to Ireland if she could do 240 NM a day.

The model boat we are planning to buy has handled 30 foot seas. The 96 hour forecast at Ireland is for 9 foot seas. I don't know what Dauntless can do.

One option Richard has is to slow down and let the low pass Ireland. There is another Low that in 5 days will be over the Azores *** IF *** the 96 hour forecast is right. The previous 96 hour forecasts have had lows at the tip of Ireland but they then moved north. Where will the Irish low go?

Later,
Dan
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Old 08-23-2014, 04:30 PM   #623
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I got a message from Richard a little while ago.

Quote:
I hope that's one thing people get out if this. Forecasts are a tool, but simply can't be your primary tool.
This is VERY VERY VERY important to understand. Helping Richards has really driven that message home to me.

Richard has a great deal of weather knowledge and experience the predates the weather models in use.

Later,
Dan
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Old 08-23-2014, 05:09 PM   #624
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Weather forecasts over an ocean crossing are fairly accurate over a certain number of days, but as you add days based on speed and distance, the probability of change obviously increases. While Richard would prefer not to have them, 9-10' waves are within a range he and his boat can handle. In such a crossing you prefer 6' and under but you simply hope to avoid the 20'+. And actually you go in a boat that can handle them. 40' is another story entirely. You're very right that you don't undertake such a crossing expecting good weather all the way.

I don't think Richard has faced any conditions he wasn't prepared for or that he didn't anticipate somewhere along the way. He was probably pleasantly surprised to encounter so little bad conditions on the way to the Azores.
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Old 08-23-2014, 05:24 PM   #625
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"The model boat we are planning to buy has handled 30 foot seas. The 96 hour forecast at Ireland is for 9 foot seas. I don't know what Dauntless can do."

The forecast on Passage Weather is for 3 meter seas. Which is almost 10 feet. And wave forecasts are generally not forecasting what the highest waves will be but what a certain percentage of the waves will be. There will always be a percentage of larger wave and even a percentage of much larger waves thrown in there.

http://www.mxak.org/weather/waves.pdf

With luck the on site conditions will be better than the predicted ones.
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Old 08-23-2014, 06:10 PM   #626
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Originally Posted by Capt.Bill11 View Post
...
The forecast on Passage Weather is for 3 meter seas. Which is almost 10 feet. And wave forecasts are generally not forecasting what the highest waves will be but what a certain percentage of the waves will be. There will always be a percentage of larger wave and even a percentage of much larger waves thrown in there....
The wave height prediction is the average height of the highest one third of the waves. Average is the key word. The highest wave could be twice the average. So it is possible that Richard could get a 20 foot wave. However, the highest wave is usually not that large but I figure if it was me, I would plan for the wave that was twice the average.

Later,
Dan
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Old 08-23-2014, 06:26 PM   #627
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Just said hello, no need to respond if he is resting, told him Dannc sent weather info, From Dauntless 6:23 pm est:

Thanks.
I'm gonna rest now.
Yes got the wx data

Night

Richard Bost sent this message from:
Lat 42.438662 Lon -18.339465
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Old 08-23-2014, 07:15 PM   #628
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Average diesel cost for Ireland as of today (converted from Euros per liter to USD per gallon) $7.31.

Saudi Arabia $0.38

Libya $0.45 and much closer to Med cruising.

Gives a bit of credence to Dashew's FPB 64 design criteria. With 3400 gallons of fuel tankage a fill up in Ireland would be $25K, Libya $1462. With a cruising range of 6400 nm @ 9 kt, that is a lot of cruising for the buck.
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Old 08-23-2014, 08:50 PM   #629
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Average diesel cost for Ireland as of today (converted from Euros per liter to USD per gallon) $7.31.

Saudi Arabia $0.38

Libya $0.45 and much closer to Med cruising.

Gives a bit of credence to Dashew's FPB 64 design criteria. With 3400 gallons of fuel tankage a fill up in Ireland would be $25K, Libya $1462. With a cruising range of 6400 nm @ 9 kt, that is a lot of cruising for the buck.
Thread creep...
As in all phases of yacht ownership just calculating the fuel burn and capacity of a Dashew boat is only part of the equation.. yes they are fuel efficient at higher speeds.. but have you priced one of those things?. you can get a Nordhavn and a lot of fuel for the cost of a FPB. And Sailors get clipped in fast boats too.. because they believe they can out run the weather.. doesn't always happen though.
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Old 08-23-2014, 09:37 PM   #630
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Well, it looks to me that at his current speed and course he'll be closer to Ireland than anyplace else by Sunday night or Monday morning. And not to mix in two other threads, but I believe we're all praying for his safe arrival and when he does reach port, we'll all hoist a tall cold one in celebration.
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Old 08-23-2014, 10:09 PM   #631
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Roger that. He is certainly running a straight course now.


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Old 08-23-2014, 10:42 PM   #632
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I find it amusing to read some of the comments on this thread where "sailors" who have never had, and never will have the bravery or fortitude to take on what Richard has, judge his wisdom, or his decision making skills.

Hats off to you Richard!
That's why I'm not advising him, and I guess it's also why I'll never get a Captain Cojones Award.
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Old 08-24-2014, 06:40 AM   #633
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From Richard on M/V Dauntless 6:15 am, est:

Morning,
A quick update.
Only the second clear day since Rhode Island.
Also, InReach was in window and have me a heat warning so had to turn it off


For a bit.
Working fine now, but just want to tell you in case I go if the air, it doesn't mean
I sank!
Again, all is well now. Boat too. Stl getting 4.2nm/gal

Richard
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Old 08-24-2014, 07:20 AM   #634
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More from Dauntless, this morning, had just asked him several general questions. 7:06 est:

Yes to all. Position correct.
Looks like 4 days and 4 nights. I'm just barely making 6kts @1600 rpm and I don't want to run faster until I'm closer.

I was telling Roger? That had a little frontal passage last night.
I slept thru it, but noticed the winds were NW for a while.

Also got a 40 kt gust.

I'm good. Just hoping I csn keep these sw winds for a few days.

Richard Bost sent this message from:
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Also asked him if his first port of call is still Castletownbere, I asked the question just shortly before receiving texts above.
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Old 08-24-2014, 08:00 AM   #635
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Asking Dauntless if Castletownbere is his destination, received the following at 7:43 est:

Yes, but in the next day I'll look at the cruise guide to see how it is on bad wx.

And there is also the risk that strong westerlies will push me to far east, at which point I'll go to Waterford, or even England

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Old 08-24-2014, 08:14 AM   #636
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I have been chatting with Richard for a while this morning. We discussed weather and I provided weather and seas from passageweather.com for the next few days on his route. He also gave me weather lessons over thousands of miles. Man he really knows his stuff and knows how it affects him on the water. Blubyu covered pretty much of the types of discussions I had with him. He is going to have a fun and challenging next few days but he knows. It was enjoyable conversation and I can't wait till he speaks somewhere back here.
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Old 08-24-2014, 08:20 AM   #637
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We also discussed other specifics on the weather and I deferred to Dan which Richard said he would be getting from him later today. Dan has been the point man on weather and I only discuss passageweather.com, which Richard likes. He and I refer to Dan for the technical aspects. We never provide recommendations, just the information.
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Old 08-24-2014, 09:24 AM   #638
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This has really got me interested in some more courses

Preview Starpath Online Courses

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Old 08-24-2014, 09:27 AM   #639
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Late to the thread but read all 32 pages- better than a novel!
Very exciting and educational. Such guts!
Thanks to all. Prayers with Richard.
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Old 08-24-2014, 09:29 AM   #640
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It sure is a great thread thanks to Richard and all the TF team
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