Weather or Not
I gave a presentation about weather forecasts at last year's Krogen Rendezvous.
If you are along any of the coasts of the US, the NWS Marine Weather forecast is the only thing you need look at for FORECAST information.
These forecasts are written by a forecaster who knows the area and has looked at everything.
Nothing beats real time observations, like weather radar and satellite pictures.
I use Windyty because I am not off the coasts of the US and I like the pretty colors.
HOWEVER I have a rule of thumb, that was recently verified on this past trip from Costa Rica:
1. Always assume the wind speeds can be 50% more (or less) than forecast.
I have found that this is almost always the case in that the winds are higher.
2. Always assume wind direction can be within 45 degrees of forecast. So if forecast is 90 deg, it will actually between 45 and 135 degrees.
A few words about GUI's. Windyty and the rest are all graphical interfaces. They allow you to access the data.
Other than apps or forecasts for specific spots, all this weather data is coming from the same sources. The sources are numerical models, the two main ones are the GFS and the Euro model.(ECMWF). But even these two models come in different resolutions and run frequency.
So what you see in each of these, GFS, ECMWF, are already ensembles of multiple forecasts and multiple runs.
Lastly, weather people are not stupid. If one model worked consistency better than the other, we'd get rid of the bad one. No model works best under any given time, space and duration.
Which brings me back to the Marine Forecast. The forecaster knows which model may be working best for that particular time and place. Models have seasons like the planet. One model may be slow in understanding that winter is over and spring is here (human forecasters have the same problem). SO having a real forecaster massage that message is what makes it the best.
Lastly, if you real the Forecast Discussion, the forecaster tell s you his reasoning and what is working and what is not working. (This is very regional however, in that different regions have cultures of explaining a lot and other regions don't.
Here are three different ones:
(this is actually the
ONLY thing I look at when I'm in the US. The rest is just blather)
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...fc&product=afd&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...OX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Good Luck