What do you use for weather?

[Nomad Willy]

Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?

 

[AusCan]

Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?

The wonders of auto-correct programs. It knows that a sentence will always begin with only one capital letter.

 

[Group9]

I check:
1. NWS
2. Weather Underground
3. WindyTS


Then, I base our cruising plans on the worst forecast.

 

[AusCan]

The Windy weather site is great for open water, but like most (all?) forecasts, you have to add a bit of your own judgement regarding the way the wind and waves will react around land masses.

Winds will tend to follow the water rather than going over high land masses. It seems Windy.com takes this into account for larger land masses but not the minor stuff.

I haven't seen any site that takes the water depth change into account with wave predictions. This seems to be a weak point in all forecasting. Even large drop offs at the edge of the continental shelf seem to have no effect on wave height with the forecasters.

Hopefully the prediction programs will continue to evolve, and more data will be used to put a more accurate picture together.

 

[dhays]

On Windy, which forcast do folks find is the more reliable out more than a few days, gfs or ecmwf?

 

[BandB]

On Windy, which forcast do folks find is the more reliable out more than a few days, gfs or ecmwf?

I haven't analyzed enough to have facts and I use both. I couldn't say one is consistently more conservative than the other although I feel like I'm seen slightly worse conditions from GFS.

For instance, looking at Wed morning offshore from Jacksonville. GFS has 3' at 8 seconds all the way in. ECMWF has 2' at 6 seconds offshore and as you near land has 1' at 6 seconds. They have direction within 10 degrees. For wind, GFS has 7 knots and ECMWF has 3 knots. However, if I move to Panama City, I get nearly the opposite with 1' on GFS and 2' in ECMWF.

Now, looking east of the Eastern Caribbean, both have some bad conditions by next Sunday but they move a bit faster on GFS so reach each area slighly sooner.

My opinion is like all available data, you just take it all into consideration. Wish I had it all charted with a consensus and with the extremes shown on one chart. If I was looking at the data above, I'd be fine with it all, except if I was east of the Caribbean Islands I would keep the GFS in mind since it is the worst case for the date I was looking.

 

[SoWhat]

I haven't found anything to be accurate several days out.
I check
NOAA marine forecast
National Data Buoy Center for (almost) real time check on closest buoy
Wundergound
Windy
MyRadar

There's a buoy 16nm east of Boston. Windy data (ECMWF) is usually close to buoy data.

 

[SaltyDawg86]

Marine Weather.

 

[Wxx3]

Weather or Not

Marine Weather.

I gave a presentation about weather forecasts at last year's Krogen Rendezvous.

If you are along any of the coasts of the US, the NWS Marine Weather forecast is the only thing you need look at for FORECAST information.
These forecasts are written by a forecaster who knows the area and has looked at everything.

Nothing beats real time observations, like weather radar and satellite pictures.

I use Windyty because I am not off the coasts of the US and I like the pretty colors.

HOWEVER I have a rule of thumb, that was recently verified on this past trip from Costa Rica:
1. Always assume the wind speeds can be 50% more (or less) than forecast.
I have found that this is almost always the case in that the winds are higher.
2. Always assume wind direction can be within 45 degrees of forecast. So if forecast is 90 deg, it will actually between 45 and 135 degrees.

A few words about GUI's. Windyty and the rest are all graphical interfaces. They allow you to access the data.
Other than apps or forecasts for specific spots, all this weather data is coming from the same sources. The sources are numerical models, the two main ones are the GFS and the Euro model.(ECMWF). But even these two models come in different resolutions and run frequency.

So what you see in each of these, GFS, ECMWF, are already ensembles of multiple forecasts and multiple runs.

Lastly, weather people are not stupid. If one model worked consistency better than the other, we'd get rid of the bad one. No model works best under any given time, space and duration.

Which brings me back to the Marine Forecast. The forecaster knows which model may be working best for that particular time and place. Models have seasons like the planet. One model may be slow in understanding that winter is over and spring is here (human forecasters have the same problem). SO having a real forecaster massage that message is what makes it the best.

Lastly, if you real the Forecast Discussion, the forecaster tell s you his reasoning and what is working and what is not working. (This is very regional however, in that different regions have cultures of explaining a lot and other regions don't.

Here are three different ones:
(this is actually the ONLY thing I look at when I'm in the US. The rest is just blather)

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...fc&product=afd&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...OX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Good Luck

 

[Simi 60]

VHF
Pocket grib.
BOM
Obsevation


Pocket grib works if in bad reception areas as it downloads the smallest of files which can be analyzed at ones leisure.

 

[FF]

For brown water cruising the VHF weather tends to be overly cautious .

We use a small DC TV to get the local weather picture.

A picture is worth way more than 1000 words.

 

[Seevee]

Question,

Is there any service where one can call for a marine weather briefing? (Kinda like a Flight Service station for aircraft, only for boats).

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

So with Crusty Windyty, I use Predict Wind, NOAA, Environment Canada and compare it to Crusty's Windyty. Some times they don't match. When this happens we throw a coin in the water and guess......

 

[rwidman]

Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?

VHF.

I think you have to examine what you are typing it on. My computer has no problem with all caps.

 

[hmason]

I use the "Conditons" tab on Coastal Explorer. Find it to be fairly accurate. It is based on NOAA forecasts and shows the forecast for wherever you click the cursor.

 

[BruceK]

Question,

Is there any service where one can call for a marine weather briefing? (Kinda like a Flight Service station for aircraft, only for boats).

Probably, but it might require a subscription. For the Sydney-Hobart race many boats use a private weather forecasting service which has a good reputation. They are not just after possible adverse events, but also currents favorable and otherwise, and where they may be running,for tactical advantage.

 

[BandB]

Probably, but it might require a subscription. For the Sydney-Hobart race many boats use a private weather forecasting service which has a good reputation. They are not just after possible adverse events, but also currents favorable and otherwise, and where they may be running,for tactical advantage.

There are private forecasters, some very popular, but generally they are confined to one area.

 

[Simi 60]

VHF.

I think you have to examine what you are typing it on. My computer has no problem with all caps.

Neither does my cheap android tablet

 

[Codger2]

I'm interested (basically) in a 12 hr forecast for the day and time of my planned departure. My normal runs are usually 5-10 hours in length of time. "Magic Seaweed" is basically a surfer's site but gives amazingly accurate swell, wave heights & wind info for my desired date & time.

Point Loma Surf Report, Surf Forecast and Live Surf Webcams

 

[BruceK]

Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?

Cap lock on, you get Caps. Cap lock on,press shift and type, you get lower case.

 

[FF]

"Is there any service where one can call for a marine weather briefing? (Kinda like a Flight Service station for aircraft, only for boats)."

When I was working , the usual question at dispatch was

" Why check the weather, were going anyway?"

 

[Seevee]

"Is there any service where one can call for a marine weather briefing? (Kinda like a Flight Service station for aircraft, only for boats)."

When I was working , the usual question at dispatch was

" Why check the weather, were going anyway?"

Yea, got the same answer when I was paid to fly. Retired now and still make 97% of the trips without issue, but boating is a bit different and often can't outrun the wx.

Would be nice to get a second opinion at times. Winds are often not very predictable and often the marine forecasts just aren't very good, especially several hour out.

But, will deal with it.

Taking the boat out today after being away for three weeks, will feel good.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

"Is there any service where one can call for a marine weather briefing? (Kinda like a Flight Service station for aircraft, only for boats)."

When I was working , the usual question at dispatch was

" Why check the weather, were going anyway?"

Yep. I have used Bob on several occations.

http://www.oceanmarinenav.com/

 

[JimW]

StormSurf 180 hour outlook on sea conditions anywhere in the world, great for timing gulf (Apalachicola to Tampa) crossings.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_height

 

[ktdtx]

Map Results | Wind, Forecast, Radar, Weather & More | WindAlert

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/sisters-island

https://forecast.predictwind.com/atlas/#Wind

National Weather Service

https://www.windy.com/58.194/-135.368?57.804,-136.049,8,m:fh8acpy

National Data Buoy Center

https://weather.gc.ca/marine/region_e.html?mapID=02

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:99801.1.99999

Ocean Prediction Center


Not in any particular order

 

[BandB]

Wifey B: Well, we had 1' today, have 1' tomorrow and have 1' forecast for the next week. So perfect, we changed plans to stay around home for the next few days.

 

[Northern Spy]

Reviving an old thread to add this website:

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;y=28.1495;x=-79.0655;z=4;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

which gets data from this website:

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php

 

[CaptTom]

Yes, the NWS has really ducked up their web presence.

As far as I can tell, each regional office has gone off and done their own thing. On longer cruises or deliveries, the best I've been able to do is go to the national map and "drill down" to the area of interest, then scan the whole page to see if there's anything similar to "marine forecast," although different regions call it different things and put it in different places.

 

[Davil1]

Yea, got the same answer when I was paid to fly. Retired now and still make 97% of the trips without issue, but boating is a bit different and often can't outrun the wx.

Would be nice to get a second opinion at times. Winds are often not very predictable and often the marine forecasts just aren't very good, especially several hour out.

But, will deal with it.

Taking the boat out today after being away for three weeks, will feel good.

========================

Received my first email summary today from Parker.
https://mwxc.com/marine_weather_services.php

very nice

Covers all Bahamas, eastern seaboard to and including Shelburne NS

I think $ 219 yearly subscription is a bargain to complement all other services I use like Predictwind and Windy.
Wish I was more competent to analyze weather so I am more than happy to pay for second opinions.

Also purchased a pack of 5 reports that are tailored to my boat and my experience.

Will use them once I leave Cape Cod to Shelburne.

Once out of Wi-Fi will receive Parker's reports in my inReach.

Once I am off the coastal/near exit safety places more than willing to pay.

On the email daily reports can include any number of the emails, that is a nice feature, have family and friends that can redirect summaries in case of failures to receive in my end.