Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
Old 09-29-2016, 02:29 PM   #21
RNL
Senior Member
 
RNL's Avatar
 
City: Sitka
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Rob n' Lee
Vessel Model: Kadey Krogen 42' #192
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 108
I used Windyty first time this summer where I had net access in SE Alaska and liked it.

Glen
__________________
Advertisement

RNL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2016, 09:11 PM   #22
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 12,234
Wifey B: We were looking at about half a dozen different forecasts earlier this evening for Lake Michigan. You could easily tell those pulling from NOAA and a couple of others were very close to each other. But what we figured out is that most probably we can expect 3' to 10' with perhaps some up to 13' tomorrow. We had 3-4', 6-10', 7-10'. We'll see what it's really like when we get up tomorrow morning. I've seen hurricane forecasts way different, but not such a hodgepodge of waves and seas. I'm guessing it's a Lake Michigan thing.
__________________

BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2016, 09:43 PM   #23
Al
Guru
 
Al's Avatar
 
City: ketchikan, Alaska
Country: usa
Vessel Name: 'SLO'~BELLE
Vessel Model: 1978 Marben-27' Flybridge Trawler Pilothouse Pocket Cruiser[
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seevee View Post
Windyty is interesting, but how to you really know what the wind velocity is? The color coding is awkward at best. And there's no info on gusts.
In South East Alaska, Windy works well enough to trust it. Yes, in the confines of the narrow inlets there is a lack of indications, however, common sense applied to the direction, velocity color, gust intensity have proven in my use, very close.
We use Windy and the North Coast B.C. North Coast East Dixon Entrence Canada marine forecast with full faith.

Al-Ketchikan
Al is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2016, 09:47 PM   #24
Guru
 
Nomad Willy's Avatar
 
City: Concrete Washington State
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Willy
Vessel Model: Willard Nomad 30'
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 13,379
The weather channel on my i-pad and several channels on my VHF.
__________________
Eric

North Western Washington State USA
Nomad Willy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-29-2016, 10:52 PM   #25
TF Site Team
 
Peter B's Avatar
 
City: Brisbane
Country: Australia
Vessel Name: Lotus
Vessel Model: Clipper (CHB) 34 Sedan/Europa style
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 6,611
Send a message via Skype™ to Peter B
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seevee View Post
In our part of the world, I find this site very good...
Coastwatch
__________________
Pete
Peter B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2016, 05:50 PM   #26
Senior Member
 
garrobito's Avatar
 
City: Oakland
Country: US
Vessel Name: Arcangel
Vessel Model: Buewater 40
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 150
my own, trained knees.. 100% accurate for rain or wind from west...

PD: good just for local weather...
garrobito is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 08:06 PM   #27
Veteran Member
 
NightCrawler's Avatar
 
City: Southport, NC
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Shangri-La
Vessel Model: Grand Banks 42 Classic
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 63
Being new to the East Coast and living aboard, We've found Sailflow to be most accurate. They nailed it with Mathew.
__________________
Jan & Lee

Eat Life -
www.grandpapickers.com
NightCrawler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2016, 08:59 AM   #28
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 165
Whatever god sends me.
MVDarlin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2016, 09:22 AM   #29
Senior Member
 
shufti's Avatar
 
City: Brisbane
Country: Australia
Vessel Name: Wine Down
Vessel Model: Riviera 35' FB
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by RNL View Post
I used Windyty first time this summer where I had net access in SE Alaska and liked it.

Glen

I just d/l'ed this app the other day and it's fantastic! Haven't yet used it in conjunction with going out on the boat, but it certainly looks great for instant visualisation of wind vs map. I can see myself using this app a lot for searching out suitable anchorages.
shufti is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 04:13 PM   #30
Senior Member
 
City: Marathon
Country: Usa
Vessel Name: silver gift
Vessel Model: 45 jefferson
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 194
Not failed yet!.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	IMG_20170403_165954.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	196.9 KB
ID:	67363  
Deckape is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 04:30 PM   #31
Guru
 
Nomad Willy's Avatar
 
City: Concrete Washington State
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Willy
Vessel Model: Willard Nomad 30'
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 13,379
Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?
__________________
Eric

North Western Washington State USA
Nomad Willy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 04:47 PM   #32
Guru
 
AusCan's Avatar
 
City: Adelaide
Country: Australia
Vessel Name: Kokanee
Vessel Model: Cuddles 30 Pilot House Motor Sailer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,931
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad Willy View Post
Vhf

I typed this three times all in caps as in upper case.
Three times it comes out like this w two letters in lower case.
Why?

The wonders of auto-correct programs. It knows that a sentence will always begin with only one capital letter.
AusCan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 04:51 PM   #33
Senior Member
 
Group9's Avatar
 
City: Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi, (or where the anchor drops)
Country: USA
Vessel Model: 1973 42 Bertram MY
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 220
I check:
1. NWS
2. Weather Underground
3. WindyTS


Then, I base our cruising plans on the worst forecast.
__________________
Living life at one quarter speed.
Group9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 05:05 PM   #34
Guru
 
AusCan's Avatar
 
City: Adelaide
Country: Australia
Vessel Name: Kokanee
Vessel Model: Cuddles 30 Pilot House Motor Sailer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,931
The Windy weather site is great for open water, but like most (all?) forecasts, you have to add a bit of your own judgement regarding the way the wind and waves will react around land masses.

Winds will tend to follow the water rather than going over high land masses. It seems Windy.com takes this into account for larger land masses but not the minor stuff.

I haven't seen any site that takes the water depth change into account with wave predictions. This seems to be a weak point in all forecasting. Even large drop offs at the edge of the continental shelf seem to have no effect on wave height with the forecasters.

Hopefully the prediction programs will continue to evolve, and more data will be used to put a more accurate picture together.
AusCan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 06:31 PM   #35
Guru
 
dhays's Avatar
 
City: Gig Harbor
Country: United States
Vessel Name: Kinship
Vessel Model: North Pacific 43
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 5,006
On Windy, which forcast do folks find is the more reliable out more than a few days, gfs or ecmwf?
__________________
Regards,

Dave
SPOT page
dhays is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 06:51 PM   #36
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 12,234
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhays View Post
On Windy, which forcast do folks find is the more reliable out more than a few days, gfs or ecmwf?
I haven't analyzed enough to have facts and I use both. I couldn't say one is consistently more conservative than the other although I feel like I'm seen slightly worse conditions from GFS.

For instance, looking at Wed morning offshore from Jacksonville. GFS has 3' at 8 seconds all the way in. ECMWF has 2' at 6 seconds offshore and as you near land has 1' at 6 seconds. They have direction within 10 degrees. For wind, GFS has 7 knots and ECMWF has 3 knots. However, if I move to Panama City, I get nearly the opposite with 1' on GFS and 2' in ECMWF.

Now, looking east of the Eastern Caribbean, both have some bad conditions by next Sunday but they move a bit faster on GFS so reach each area slighly sooner.

My opinion is like all available data, you just take it all into consideration. Wish I had it all charted with a consensus and with the extremes shown on one chart. If I was looking at the data above, I'd be fine with it all, except if I was east of the Caribbean Islands I would keep the GFS in mind since it is the worst case for the date I was looking.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 08:01 PM   #37
Senior Member
 
City: Boston
Country: US
Vessel Model: IG 30
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 168
I haven't found anything to be accurate several days out.
I check
NOAA marine forecast
National Data Buoy Center for (almost) real time check on closest buoy
Wundergound
Windy
MyRadar

There's a buoy 16nm east of Boston. Windy data (ECMWF) is usually close to buoy data.
SoWhat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 08:25 PM   #38
Senior Member
 
SaltyDawg86's Avatar
 
City: Carrollton, Va
Country: USA
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 332
Marine Weather.
SaltyDawg86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 09:29 PM   #39
Dauntless Award
 
Wxx3's Avatar
 
City: New York, NY
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Dauntless
Vessel Model: Kadey Krogen 42 - 148
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,270
Weather or Not

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltyDawg86 View Post
Marine Weather.
I gave a presentation about weather forecasts at last year's Krogen Rendezvous.

If you are along any of the coasts of the US, the NWS Marine Weather forecast is the only thing you need look at for FORECAST information.
These forecasts are written by a forecaster who knows the area and has looked at everything.

Nothing beats real time observations, like weather radar and satellite pictures.

I use Windyty because I am not off the coasts of the US and I like the pretty colors.

HOWEVER I have a rule of thumb, that was recently verified on this past trip from Costa Rica:
1. Always assume the wind speeds can be 50% more (or less) than forecast.
I have found that this is almost always the case in that the winds are higher.
2. Always assume wind direction can be within 45 degrees of forecast. So if forecast is 90 deg, it will actually between 45 and 135 degrees.

A few words about GUI's. Windyty and the rest are all graphical interfaces. They allow you to access the data.
Other than apps or forecasts for specific spots, all this weather data is coming from the same sources. The sources are numerical models, the two main ones are the GFS and the Euro model.(ECMWF). But even these two models come in different resolutions and run frequency.

So what you see in each of these, GFS, ECMWF, are already ensembles of multiple forecasts and multiple runs.

Lastly, weather people are not stupid. If one model worked consistency better than the other, we'd get rid of the bad one. No model works best under any given time, space and duration.

Which brings me back to the Marine Forecast. The forecaster knows which model may be working best for that particular time and place. Models have seasons like the planet. One model may be slow in understanding that winter is over and spring is here (human forecasters have the same problem). SO having a real forecaster massage that message is what makes it the best.

Lastly, if you real the Forecast Discussion, the forecaster tell s you his reasoning and what is working and what is not working. (This is very regional however, in that different regions have cultures of explaining a lot and other regions don't.

Here are three different ones:
(this is actually the ONLY thing I look at when I'm in the US. The rest is just blather)

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...&highlight=off

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1

Good Luck
__________________
M/Y Dauntless, New York
a Kadey Krogen 42 Currently https://share.delorme.com/dauntless
Blog: https://dauntlessatsea.com
Find us: https://share.delorme.com/dauntless
Wxx3 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2017, 10:34 PM   #40
Guru
 
Simi 60's Avatar
 
City: Queensland
Country: Australia
Vessel Model: Milkraft 60 converted trawler
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 641
VHF
Pocket grib.
BOM
Obsevation


Pocket grib works if in bad reception areas as it downloads the smallest of files which can be analyzed at ones leisure.
__________________

Simi 60 is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:55 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012