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Old 10-15-2015, 01:59 AM   #61
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You mean like predicting the 7th inning of the Jays-Rangers game today?
Bingo
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Old 10-15-2015, 07:20 AM   #62
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"Black Swan" events; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
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Old 10-15-2015, 08:37 AM   #63
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Greetings,
Hmmm....interesting chain of comments. I experience Black Swan events (thanks Mr. MM-never heard that term before) on a daily basis. Hell, just waking up in the morning is a BS experience. Never ceases to amaze me.
A strictly mechanical reaction to an event, keeping in mind a foreseeable scenario, can be programmed quite readily as evidenced by something as simple as your wall thermostat. An autonomous vessel is just a very complex wall thermostat and reaction/operation parameters can be built in.
The problems will arise as mentioned when a BS occurs. Now the solution, as I see it, is currently evolving out of the realm of what used to be science fiction a la Eando Binder (I Robot-1939) ie: mechanical self awareness. So the concept is most definitely NOT new, just able to be realized now with increasing technology.
Hmmm...Better read up on Asimov's Three Laws... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics
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Old 10-15-2015, 09:43 AM   #64
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WOW - This is quite the thread to stumble upon. Couldn't take time to read all posts; some quite long... but good points seem to be made on several levels.

Just thought I might add a "Little Bitty" - Great BIG Game-Changer that I believe is not toooooo far off in the future.

I.E.: Molecular Teller-Transportation

Star Trek "toys" in the 60's were simply the next evolution of Dick Tracy "toys" during early 20th Century.

Once Molecular Teller-Transportation really gets perfected - Well... just let your mind wander/wonder in amazement of the changes that will globally occur for our entire human race.

Anyone who thinks this will not become available holds similar blind spots to those who said Flying / Radio / TV / X-Ray / Microwave Cooking / Nuclear-Power… etc… etc would not happen.

Be ready to be utterly astounded once Molecular Teller-Transportation grows legs. World changes of all sorts will become faster and more pronounced than what occurred via any (human or product) transportation device ever before invented/created/perfected by the “Human-Brain”!

You can thank God, or you can thank evolution… makes no matter to the Fact that: Molecular Teller-Transportation will eventually become available on a large scale and that it will alter our world beyond anyone’s current wildest expectations.

Happy Future Daze! - Art
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Old 10-15-2015, 11:50 AM   #65
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...I think the key thing that many are missing here is that technology is not something that replaces humanity, but is, in essence, an extension of humanity. So technology is likely to inherit many if our human shortcomings.

That we are predetermining the requirement for autonomous ships may in itself be a fallacious goal.

I mean, if we are so technologically advanced in the future, why would we want to move goods across an unstable interface of two fluids, one fluid corrosive, at a relatively low speed (aka shipping) anyways? I'm sure there is a better solution, if this is even a problem then...
OMG!!!!

This has to be one of the absolutely best responses I've read in this thread!

If I wasn't sending this from a phone, (who'd a thunk it'd be possible? ), I'd add a "bow down" emoticon! Lol

But i can't, so I'm gonna crawl back in my cave and continue to hammer and chisel out a letter on this rock slate...

OD
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Old 10-15-2015, 12:03 PM   #66
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I just want to see the computer do this: lol

https://www.quora.com/How-did-ships-...-the-waterline


I'm sure there's a solution. Maybe the ability to "grow" a new skin to patch a hole or rip?

As marin said, maybe use the engineering technology to make the valves fit and function better?

But I still believe that some things, especially on a ship, will still require some human intervention. Use technology to our advantage, to make life easier, maybe less stressful and of course more cost effective.

Ok, back to the cave.

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Old 10-15-2015, 01:59 PM   #67
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But I still believe that some things, especially on a ship, will still require some human intervention.
I don't disagree with that. But the humans will have no need to be on the ship (or the plane). They will simply be refining the systems that are controlling the ships.

And Spy's notion of why have to ship anything by sea at all is, I believe, the ultimate fate of ocean shipping. But we have to crawl before we can walk and I suspect that fully autonomous ships will be an interim step to whatever replaces ocean shipping altogether.

In Boeing's archives building there are scale models of airplanes conceived in the 1980s of massive blended wing aircraft that would replace ocean tankers for the international transport of oil. Obviously these aircraft never got past the conceptual dreaming stage.

But the fact there were design engineers seriously thinking about this idea and actually designing aicraft that could conceivably accomplish the mission is a good demonstration of man's vision in action.

If a market had existed for these aircraft, and if the technology had supported their development, manufacture and operation-- powerplants, structural materials, ground facilities, control systems; it's a long, long list-- they would have made it past the dusty-model-on-a-shelf stage.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:20 PM   #68
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After running 3 different nuclear power plants for a living for 33 years all I can say is good luck with full auto mode.
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Old 10-15-2015, 02:59 PM   #69
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I think I just stumbled onto the "You kids, get off my lawn!" thread.

It's probably going happen. Because we just don't know what we don't know about the future.




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Old 10-15-2015, 03:08 PM   #70
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It's probably going happen.

Because we just don't know what we don't know about the future.
Hmmmmm.

If we don't know what we don't know, how can it be probable?
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:14 PM   #71
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Hmmmmm.

If we don't know what we don't know, how can it be probable?

Because it will "probably" cost less.

Maybe "possibly" or "quite likely" may have been a better choice of words. Somewhere between possible and probable.
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Old 10-15-2015, 03:28 PM   #72
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Old 06-01-2017, 05:48 PM   #73
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At risk of reawakening this slumbering thread that once blazed across the ether for three days, here's news of an actual autonomous commercial ship in the works:

"In early May, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, a Norwegian maritime-technology firm, and Yara ASA, a fertilizer manufacturer, announced a partnership to build the world’s first fully autonomous cargo containership. Manned voyages will start in 2018, and in 2020 the Yara Birkeland will set sail all on its own. It’s the beginning of a revolution that should transform one of the world’s oldest and most conservative industries — and make global shipping safer, faster and cleaner than it’s ever been."

No mention in that quote of the truly decisive consideration, i.e., efficiency (or put differently, money). But read on and it's clear that autonomous ships are simply industrialization carried to a new level.

https://www.workboat.com/blogs/marit...ent=newsletter

The A.S. may be safer in some ways, but how safe will the rest of us be, who boat anywhere near it? I'm imagining a maritime insurance underwriter sitting down to rate this new class of vessel, or an admiralty lawyer, each asking themselves, "What could possibly go wrong here?"
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Old 06-01-2017, 06:20 PM   #74
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Bear with me here: Our two cars both have automatic braking, lane change sensors, back-up alarms if they sense approaching cars from either side, etc. Hers learns each driver's highway habits in about 50 miles and vibrates the steering wheel if it thinks you're getting sleepy (based on your left-right drift). If a car is coming up too fast from behind and you're stopped, it instantly moves the headrests slightly forward and tightens your seatbelt before a potential collision. It's also very intuitive. No false alarms in 3 years.

Point is, I've seen a lot of reports over the years where people fired off flares at sea near a supposedly manned ship with zero response. Nobody really on watch. My guess is the autonomous vessels will actually be far more "aware" of small craft, and able to take appropriate action.

Although I don't know what would happen if one of them developed a big leak in the middle of the south Atlantic.
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Old 06-01-2017, 06:21 PM   #75
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I did not read the whole thread so bare with me if I repeat something that has been already said. Want it or want it not but autonomous transportation s coming our way and faster than we think. Transportation companies are already taking action to align themselves in a way to be able to compete against near future concurrent with autonomous truck/boat.

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Old 06-01-2017, 06:58 PM   #76
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I did not read the whole thread so bare with me if I repeat something that has been already said. Want it or want it not but autonomous transportation s coming our way and faster than we think. Transportation companies are already taking action to align themselves in a way to be able to compete against near future concurrent with autonomous truck/boat.

L.
No argument here, and I'm increasingly ready to welcome autonomous vehicles on public streets and highways. They could hardly be worse than some of the purportedly cognitive life forms that I see behind the wheel of "manned" cars on the road. For a ship at sea, maybe 99+% of the time, unmanned operation will be uneventful. It's the $#^%storm that breaks during the remaining .5% of the time that concerns me.
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Old 06-01-2017, 07:04 PM   #77
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Greetings,
Mr. B. With the ever increasing powers of AI, it may be that those "$#^%storms" will be less of a problem. Higher tech, better built and stabilized ships will most possibly be keeping pace with dehumanization.
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Old 06-01-2017, 07:18 PM   #78
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"In early May, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, a Norwegian maritime-technology firm, and Yara ASA, a fertilizer manufacturer, announced a partnership to build the world’s first fully autonomous cargo containership.
Wifey B: So, full of sh.......?
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Old 06-01-2017, 07:19 PM   #79
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Wifey B: So, full of sh.......?
Why yes, as a matter of fact!
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Old 06-01-2017, 07:42 PM   #80
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No argument here, and I'm increasingly ready to welcome autonomous vehicles on public streets and highways. They could hardly be worse than some of the purportedly cognitive life forms that I see behind the wheel of "manned" cars on the road. For a ship at sea, maybe 99+% of the time, unmanned operation will be uneventful. It's the $#^%storm that breaks during the remaining .5% of the time that concerns me.
Or when it breaks down, gets hacked, gets hijacked, has a fire, etc.
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