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Old 09-08-2014, 04:12 PM   #41
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Heard on the dock the other week that Grand Banks has returned to profitability after a bunch of years of losing money.
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Old 09-08-2014, 04:16 PM   #42
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Heard on the dock the other week that Grand Banks has returned to profitability after a bunch of years of losing money.
Yes, and they hope to get off the watch list on the Singapore exchange. Their sales were up considerably and their costs down. Now have a new CEO. Over 60% of their sales to US. Their stock is up from it's low point but still far less than it once was.
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Old 09-09-2014, 03:10 PM   #43
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Where will the Trawler Market go?

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Marin made an interesting comment the other day.

With the baby boomers retiring at 10,000/day for the next 2 decades, I would think the market should be good for the near future.
It seems to me that the market for Trawler-like boats (the definition is difficult as people know) - is dependent upon three key things:

1. Number of people interested in trawler boats/cruising (i.e. total possible market) - largely driven by baby boomer retirees.

2. Net assets of those people

3. Price of fuel (and fuel efficiency of boats).


Here is the data I could find:

1. Baby Boomer Trend - starting to weaken and will continue to weaken for a decade or two.


2. Net Assets: Many baby boomers have lost a significant portion of their retirement funds due to the great recession - and they are at an age where those resources will not be regenerated.


3. Fuel Prices - heading up: If the operating costs of a trawler continues go to up like it has during the past two decades - we will see a significant impact on the demand.
http://www.roperld.com/science/miner...riceExpFit.gif


So - I think the trawler market will go down / shrink considerably over the next 10 to 15 years.
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Old 09-09-2014, 03:32 PM   #44
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Old 09-09-2014, 09:04 PM   #45
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Old 09-10-2014, 04:49 PM   #46
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We are in our early 40s and on our first trawler (OK, SD boat). Having grown up in New England, a pilothouse was just what I always wanted, and comming from a sailboat, the slower speeds were not an issue. We travel a lot faster than before, and in a straight line, too). We make a good living, but no where near the 1%. We were only able to afford our NT due to lots of hard work and savings, and by doing all the work on the boat ourselves. There is no way we could afford this boat if we were checkbook boaters. Getting back to the comments, it sounds like we will be ready for our next boat just at the time when the recession/lack of boats will impact what is available to us. We bought Carolena II when she was 10 years old, and plan to sell her when she is around 16 so that new buyers can still get financing if they want (ie will be less than 20 years old). I sure hope there are some 10 year old Nordic Tug 37/39s on the market when we get to that stage. We will probably have the next boat into retirement - at least that is the plan unless we can somehow afford our dream Nordhavn by then.
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Old 09-10-2014, 07:53 PM   #47
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The so called trawler market for nice clean vessels is pretty good in the PNW, so say the brokers who are combing flotillas for listings. Largely because so many enjoy the cruising grounds from Tacoma to Glacier Bay. Every mile offers something it seems, so going slow is not a burden if one has the time and enjoys the cruising experience.

With the long distances to be traveled when going to AK, good fuel economy and range are pretty important. Some friends have a Westport 112. Their favorite speed is 10 knots. Again, to enjoy the PNW experience, extend their range and they have the time.

Two years ago we were seriously looking at different "trawler" vessels. We had about 6 favorites, all sold within a few months. Yes, the Taiwan style 30 to 36 foot trawlers are gone as new builds. For the well kept newer 36 to 50 foot trawlers in the used market I sense life is good.
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Old 09-10-2014, 08:07 PM   #48
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The so called trawler market for nice clean vessels is pretty good in the PNW, so say the brokers who are combing flotillas for listings.
I know brokers in Florida who specialize in Trawlers and complained about shortage of listings as well. Now part of that I'm afraid is trawler owners not selling and moving up, but holding on to what they have.
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Old 09-11-2014, 06:02 AM   #49
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With house prices stuck at crap levels , there will be a demand for old boats but the creation of new boats will stay low.

What is required is a change in building methods to lower new boat prices by 50% or more.

The methods exist , although not inexpensive to start production .

The interiors will no longer consist of a forest of dead trees , much simpler like on a modern fish killer.
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Old 09-11-2014, 06:51 AM   #50
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I bought my trawler when I was 30 yrs old and don't every plan on selling. I would give it to my son before selling it to much sweat equity and my wife would never let buy another.
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Old 09-13-2014, 06:29 AM   #51
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Building Methods to reduce building cost

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With house prices stuck at crap levels , there will be a demand for old boats but the creation of new boats will stay low.

What is required is a change in building methods to lower new boat prices by 50% or more.
That was one thing I was trying to work on with this Pilgrim project

Designing a new Coastal Cruiser

KSS construction ideas

Cabin Superstructure Construction



Quote:
The methods exist , although not inexpensive to start production .
I was also taking this 'start-up cost' into consideration.....ie
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Why steel for the hull,...why not fiberglass like most other production boats these days? One of the key words here is 'production boat'. Sure making up the plugs, then the molds for a production run of boats makes sense. But what if you don't really know how many copies you may build,...what if its a limited run geared for a specific market?? Then you are trapped with an up-front, expensive bit of tooling that you can not amortize over a goodly number of vessels.
....more here
Trawler Forum - View Single Post - Redesigning the Pilgrim 40 Trawler / Canal Boat
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Old 09-13-2014, 06:38 AM   #52
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....The interiors will no longer consist of a forest of dead trees , much simpler like on a modern fish killer.
Cutting Labor Hrs @ Composite Woods

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Old 09-13-2014, 11:56 AM   #53
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I grew up in Pittsburgh Pa., known for decades as the largest inland port in the US. My dad has us boatingin the late 60s and 70s, think Tri-Hull outboards and Sweet 16s stacked like sardines at the local family marina. It was primarily a "blue collar" hobby. Most of our Marina boaters were Mill workers, union guys making good money. Those jobs are gone and so is that boating community. I don't know where new boaters are coming from.
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Old 09-13-2014, 12:18 PM   #54
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I grew up in Pittsburgh Pa., known for decades as the largest inland port in the US. My dad has us boatingin the late 60s and 70s, think Tri-Hull outboards and Sweet 16s stacked like sardines at the local family marina. It was primarily a "blue collar" hobby. Most of our Marina boaters were Mill workers, union guys making good money. Those jobs are gone and so is that boating community. I don't know where new boaters are coming from.
New boaters are coming older on the whole. Now plenty of exceptions as many still start young with their parents. While money is a big issue, it's by far not the only one. The biggest may be TIME. Today's schedules don't provide it. Parents working long hours, many days, and getting little vacation, then exhausted when they do. Even the kids. Teenagers today often have many extra responsibilities. Sports, band, debate, honor society tasks. After school and weekends being eaten away. Boating is a very expensive hobby and, if you don't have the time to do it, hardly justifies the investment. Look at the boats that sit unused. Family time isn't the priority it needs to be. Not with us, not with employers, not even with schools.
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Old 09-13-2014, 12:36 PM   #55
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I agree, I don't know where a steady stream of bigger boaters would come from either. Oh sure, runabouts on a trailer will always be around, or bigger boats for the guys who sold a company, or even some of the Boomers who are now inheriting their parents' assets - but to me those financial situations are a pretty small fraction of the population in general.

But then on the other hand we just finished a weeklong charter in the San Juans. The number of million dollar boats in Roche Harbor was amazing. So maybe piles of disposible dollars are still out there and I just don't understand the sources.
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Old 09-13-2014, 01:01 PM   #56
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There will always be million dollar boats at Roche Harbor. How many 30s are at the local Marina? I don't see many "transition" boats anymore. Lots of $50K runabouts financed over 10 years or more. Tons of PWCs. Maybe a dozen 40'+ in the $300k to $500k range.
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Old 09-13-2014, 01:08 PM   #57
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I think there are several factors that have reduced the number of potential big boat buyers. This has affected the market, and I think it will continue to affect the market.

B and B mentioned time. Time is a big factor. I have noticed my sons generation is different from my generation in that the kids have more activities taking up their time. There has always been little league, but now, kids seem to be involved in more and more time committed activities, reducing the parents ability to take off for weekends on the boat.

Another factor affecting time and money is that we are having kids later in life. It used to be seeing babies to 30+ year olds was pretty rare. Now its the norm it seems. Well, a 30+ parent is going to have a financial and time commitment to their children much later in life than a 20 year old parent. This means that as a persons 50's, they are likely to not have the disposable income or the time at that age that previous generations had. For those that do not believe this just ask a true empty nester. I can tell you that I have more disposable income as a empty nester than I ever dreamed about raising kids. Kids are expensive, pure and simple.

Yet another factor is home ownership. Now days paying off your home seems to be discouraged by many. Upsizing your home, and or refinancing to pull out the equity is more the norm. The problem with that is people are always paying a full mortgage based on the current value of their home. Think about it... If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.

Singly these and other factors may not seem to have much meaning, but when you combine them often in the same person, or family large boat ownership gets harder and harder.
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Old 09-13-2014, 01:21 PM   #58
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People used to have "note burning" parties after they paid their mortgages off. Now reverse mortgages are the norm.
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Old 09-14-2014, 06:07 AM   #59
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>If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.<

A plot of home prices vs currency depreciation (aka Inflation) from 1900 shows there is very little increase in inflation adjusted prices for homes for a century.

When a VW was $1100 bucks your home was $15K, today the VW is $20K and your house is $220K .

The only thing home ownership got was an interest deduction on progressive taxation.

My father was a plumber on large jobs. In 1950 he earned $75 a week gross and after fed and state and NYC taxes taxes took home $69 .

Today a plumber would be happy with $750 a week but the after tax take home would hardly be $690.

Thats where your boat money went , to the TAXMAN
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Old 09-14-2014, 09:49 AM   #60
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Quote:
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>If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.<

A plot of home prices vs currency depreciation (aka Inflation) from 1900 shows there is very little increase in inflation adjusted prices for homes for a century.

When a VW was $1100 bucks your home was $15K, today the VW is $20K and your house is $220K .

The only thing home ownership got was an interest deduction on progressive taxation.
Thats the point entirely. If you bought a home for $15K way back when, even if you had a mortgage it would seem like a really small mortgage in todays dollars. That would free up your monthly income to buy a large boat.

If on the other hand you kept refinancing your home, pulling out the equity, or if you kept trading up homes, you'd be making a mortgage payment today on a $220K home. That would not leave enough left over at the end of the month to pay a large boat payment.

It gets even worse when you consider retirement. If you'd just kept your home, it would be paid off and you could live rent free during your retirement years. Instead you're stuck with a mortgage payment during your retirement.

I really hope someone young reads this and thinks about it. I think the average TF member is frankly too old to do anything about it. By the time you are in your 50's you're there or you are not.
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