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Old 08-01-2017, 02:09 PM   #1
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Weather and Sea Conditions Predictions.

I was wondering what website or other source do people use for weather and or sea conditions when planning a trip? Currently I visit a few and compare the results.

Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather

https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/

National Weather Service Marine Forecasts

We are going to head down to Cape May NJ this weekend for a few days so I am looking at about an 8 hour trip off shore from Jones Inlet. I don't really want to run the icw so if conditions don't cooperate we may just go up the Hudson River.
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Old 08-01-2017, 03:59 PM   #2
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I have used the ones you referenced, but I now mostly use windy.com. It uses a wind prediction model like everyone else, but I like the easy graphical interface. If you click on a point and then click on "forecast for this location" you get a detailed hour by hour forecast for the next five days. Then if you click on "Display- waves" at the lower left you also get a detailed wave and secondary swell forecast.

Looks like the wind will be light and mostly out of the south until late Saturday when a mild cold front passes through and shifts it to the north, but still light. Waves will be about 2 feet.

How fast do you cruise your P34? Speeding up to 12 kts or more will stabilize that hull in a cross chop. But even 7 kts will be comfortable in those conditions.

David
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:21 PM   #3
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Thanks for your input David. I tend to keep her at 2600 rpms and try not to worry about the actual speed unless I am trying to make a deadline or some other pressing reason. 2600 can put me anywhere from 14 to 18 knots depending on tides, currents, and wind.
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Old 08-02-2017, 12:12 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djmarchand View Post
I have used the ones you referenced, but I now mostly use windy.com. It uses a wind prediction model like everyone else, but I like the easy graphical interface. If you click on a point and then click on "forecast for this location" you get a detailed hour by hour forecast for the next five days. Then if you click on "Display- waves" at the lower left you also get a detailed wave and secondary swell forecast.

Looks like the wind will be light and mostly out of the south until late Saturday when a mild cold front passes through and shifts it to the north, but still light. Waves will be about 2 feet.

David
I too use Windy. I've of the best graphical depictions.

Use the 50% and 90 rule and you'll be fine.

Off the East, I'd also read the NWS forecast discussion AND the associated maritime forecast that will be below the fd.
Here is the link for the fd from Upton, which is the one you should be looking at.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

It will explain the underlying issues that that particular forecast run has.
Don't disregard it.

Richard on Dauntless in Mexico, finally.
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Old 08-02-2017, 12:42 AM   #5
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I use Marine Weather. So far, so good.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:09 AM   #6
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Weather and Sea Conditions Predictions.

I used BuoyWeather and Windy for our trip from BC to San Diego in the past three weeks. Both were pretty accurate.... I have a question for David, and any other regular Windy users. I had trouble working out what they mean by Swell/period, Swell1/period and Swell2/period. Is there a correlation between the three swell data provided, and what is it?Click image for larger version

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Old 08-02-2017, 01:59 AM   #7
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The local newspaper showing temperatures, wave conditions, and wind speeds.
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Old 08-02-2017, 02:27 AM   #8
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Frankly I think the NWS has so hosed up their web sites that they are almost unusable. They have buried the text forecasts so far down in their web site they are hard to find. The weather observations are equally buried. They think everyone has access to high speed internet but when cruise ships hit southeast Alaska you don't have much bandwidth. Everything they have on their main web sites is based on clicking on a map. When you click on Clarence Strait near Ketchikan, you get a forecast for some point 7 mi west of Loring. Loring is now just a collection private homes. The forecast they give you is actually for Clarence Strait but you can't tell by its description. I would pull their IT funding, fire the webmaster, and tell them to keep it simple and direct. If I wanted graphics and maps I would go to Windy if I have the bandwidth. I want information and they have buried it. Comments to the Alaska Region of the NWS go nowhere. 2 years ago they had a very good website that communicated effectively and one of the best satellite images of Alaska that told you what was happening by looking at one picture. They deleted that image (you can find it at the Alaska Aviation Unit web site) and replaced it with something that is completely useless. I wish Environment Canada would take over our weather.

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Old 08-02-2017, 02:46 AM   #9
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:53 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MV Content View Post
I used BuoyWeather and Windy for our trip from BC to San Diego in the past three weeks. Both were pretty accurate.... I have a question for David, and any other regular Windy users. I had trouble working out what they mean by Swell/period, Swell1/period and Swell2/period. Is there a correlation between the three swell data provided, and what is it?Attachment 67288
I haven't found any specific information about how the swell data is interpreted on windy.com, but I expect it is similar to how the Australian Bureau of Meteorology presents it.
A second swell is reported there are 2 weather systems causing swell from multiple directions.
Swell 1 is the dominant swell from the more powerful weather system. Swell 2 is the effect from a secondary system. They each have their own period.

The BOM website explains it better here. Second Swell

When there is a second swell, it makes it a bit more challenging when choosing a good anchorage.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:17 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Wxx3 View Post
I too use Windy. I've of the best graphical depictions.

Use the 50% and 90 rule and you'll be fine.

Richard on Dauntless in Mexico, finally.
Richard, or anyone else that wants to chime in,
Pardon my ignorance but can you clarify the 50% and 90* degree rule? Does that mean expect it to be 50% worse and off by 90*? Sorry, I am not as well versed as others.
Thanks,
Kevin
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Old 08-02-2017, 10:27 AM   #12
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All.

We use subscription services plus wunderground plus windy plus passageweather plus buoyweather. We like to see where they agree and disagree and stay aware of both consensus but also the outlier forecast to keep an eye on as it could turn out right. If we're on the boat, at sea, routing services are very helpful, but as we sit here docked along the coast, looking ahead for the next week or so, windy is hard to beat and for quick forecasts of specific areas, wunderground is easy. What I like best about windy is the selection of layers and the ease of seeing the wind waves and swells separately. I also like being able to see a greater picture and what is approaching, where the systems are.
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