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Old 08-29-2015, 08:57 AM   #41
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Peter Ray's posting for the morning of Saturday, 8/29/15

Friends, Erika is coming. The peninsula of Florida will only get some squalls and the east cost of Florida and the USA - nothing.


FORECAST: Tropical Storm (TS) Erika is just off the southeastern tip of Cuba moving NW at 20 mph. Maximum wind winds are 40 mph. As TS Erika moves through Cuba it will weaken into a tropical depression, and the Lower Florida Keys should be prepared for a storm that is with msw of about 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph and rough seas. Then entering the warm Gulf, Erica will strengthen to a Tropical Storm and might even get to a Category 1 hurricane. The Big Bend area (including Cedar Key and South of Tallahassee should be prepared for a storm surge, magnitude of which will depend in part on the timing relative to the tides. At this point as Erika moves up the coast, landfall looks to be along the Gulf Coast. Probably Sunday afternoon or night I will know where. Just have to wait for it to clear Cuba. Again, its exact path will depend in part on its strength.


DISCUSSION: Cuba will really be hard on Erika as it is on all storms because of the central mountains. But the Gulf waters are near their maximum temperature and most hospitable. Erika is barely a TS now, and actually probably really is a Tropical depression. All depends on whether anything survives Cuba. The forecast is based on the assumption that Cuba does not "wipe out" Erika.

If you have coastal relatives along the Panhandle, and want to be cautious, I would take care of them. As mentioned, if Erika goes that far west, it could become a hurricane. I will know that tomorrow in the afternoon, and that would give you 4 days notice. Rain and some gusts is in Tallahassee's forecast for Wednesday. Will NOT interfere with the first FSU game.


NEXT FORECAST: THIS EVENING, Saturday night, Then Sunday Morning and as often

as new data is available as Erika approaches land.


Peter Ray
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Old 08-29-2015, 09:01 AM   #42
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Looks like it is headed for Apalachicola / Carrabelle with St Marks on the "bad" side. Lots of rain, winds forecast not to be too strong. Arrival Wed.
Still lots of time for change in direction or force.
Take care
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Old 08-29-2015, 09:13 AM   #43
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Dominican Republic Mountains did it again, Haiti with an assist.
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Old 08-29-2015, 09:36 AM   #44
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Looks like it is headed for Apalachicola / Carrabelle with St Marks on the "bad" side. Lots of rain, winds forecast not to be too strong. Arrival Wed.
Still lots of time for change in direction or force.
Take care
Yup. I'm hoping that Cuba will kill it, but if it does not, then it will probably get into the warm waters of the Gulf and strengthen. Still too early to tell, but I suspect that you are right on the money as to where it is headed if it survives Cuba.
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Old 08-29-2015, 09:42 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by jwnall View Post
Yup. I'm hoping that Cuba will kill it, but if it does not, then it will probably get into the warm waters of the Gulf and strengthen. Still too early to tell, but I suspect that you are right on the money as to where it is headed if it survives Cuba.
Agree we are leaving Thomasville right above you and headed for the boat in Sarasota in a hour

We spent last weekend at st. George Island near apalachicola and some of the beach are sure small and close to the houses on the plantation
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Old 08-29-2015, 09:46 AM   #46
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Old 08-29-2015, 10:12 AM   #47
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Tropical rainstorm

That's all it is now. For us in South Florida, just another day. 25 mph winds with gusts to 32. A half inch of rain during the day tomorrow, another half tomorrow night. Yes, we prepared for worse, but it's also another example of why the fear others have of hurricanes in South Florida is far greater than the fear those of us who live here have. Seas 4-6' tomorrow and back to 2' by Tuesday.

As to Peter Ray, I'd never heard of him before and wondering why his predictions of note? I did google him. Is this the same Peter Ray who was accused (not to my knowledge ever convicted) of all the sexual harassment at FSU from 1996 to 2002?

I'm just curious as I'd never heard of him or followed him before.
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Old 08-29-2015, 11:07 AM   #48
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As to Peter Ray, I'd never heard of him before and wondering why his predictions of note? I did google him.

I'm just curious as I'd never heard of him or followed him before.
Peter Ray is an FSU meteorologist who kind of specializes in hurricanes. I don't know that his predictions are any better or any worse than anyone else, but he is always more specific about what is coming to my area (since he lives here also). And so I am on his mailing list, and just post his predictions here for whatever they may be worth. IMO, no one should rely upon just one source of information, however -- better to use several sources. I religiously check the National Hurricane Center website twice a day during the hurricane season, and consider them the best source of information. But, as I said, Peter Ray is more specific to my area, and so I get his newsletter also.
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Old 08-29-2015, 11:28 AM   #49
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Erika dissipated at 9:30 am. Yahoo!
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Old 08-29-2015, 11:51 AM   #50
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erika dissipated at 9:30 am. Yahoo!

r.i.p.
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