PM story on a sunken GB in Hopetown

[Boat]

I'm in the boonies outside Mobile, AL and about the time this storm glanced off Puerto Rico, I became concerned for my health and well being. My weather background goes back decades and I am mostly self-taught but I pretty soon decided it wasn't going west of the AL-GA line. I think any prudent person who was in his position would have realized there was a real danger to The Bahamas. I ran a couple gallons of gas through a generator anyway.

Self-preservation is an individual thing and is offset by self-destruction. A strong sense of self-preservation has been vital to my continued existence. Maybe they're just winding down and this part of their lives is passing them by. Looks like it was good while it lasted.


A graph that plots the strengthening storm against their blood alcohol levels may be interesting.

I was not far away from where he said he was in Katrina. We were NOT IN Katrina by any stretch of the imagination. The high water levels were impressive and there were a couple tornados in the area, but no. We were not in Katrina, didn't count.

For a few,they calculate there best move is to "sell the boat to the insurance company".

This possibility crossed my mind also. The easy way out.

 

[Boat]

And if there boat had become disabled after leaving, we would be referring to them far differently. The difference between smart and stupid in this scenario only comes down to whether you were successful.

Ted

If the hotel fell in on them, same, same. It is a fallacy in thinking. Anything can fail, anytime, especially in chaotic times like those. When the meteor falls on you, or lightning strikes, game over.

The butterfly that landed on the swim platform might have made the difference between life and death.

 

[mvweebles]

A graph that plots the strengthening storm against their blood alcohol levels may be interesting.

I was really surprised and saddened to see comments like this (and the Insurance-as-a-way-out comment). There is so much to learn about tragedy - as the saying goes, those who ignore history are bound to repeat it. Rather than take the approach of "I'd never do that," maybe a bit of humility "Gee, sure seems like he's been around the block - might even have more experience than I do. Wonder why he did what he did?"

I thank the owner for sharing his story. It's a sobering reality. Not bragging, but I have over 25,000 offshore miles on power boats, though in vastly different waters (the Pacific Coast - past delivery skipper transitioning to cruising). I'd love to know his thinking along the way and the decisions he made. We in the bleachers see it as one big decision. In my experience, tragedies are a daisy chain of small decisions that lull you into a chain of events that may not have an exit.

 

[sunchaser]

I re-read the OP's post and attachment. Not only did they choose to be there knowing a storm was brewing, they invited friends to join them. Another blog entry came forth, a sad one.

The question as posted earlier by me and Ski remains. Why was this vessel and so many other boaters as well, there in the first place during hurricane season? I've got to pull up the movie "Key Largo" with Bogart and Edward G Robinson, it rings true 80 years later.

To Kevin's point as to why not leave? The answer appears simple, they rolled the dice before and lucked out. Tried again with a different result. But rather than beat up on these poor unfortunates too much, TF and it's members should start reminding and nagging next June or so about the hazards of cruising in hurricane alley without a plan, in many cases an exit plan.

This thread and all the magazine articles saying similar should be taken to heart and hopefully serve to save some vessels and hopefully lives in the future.

 

[psneeld]

Do people think this is a simple go-no go decision?


Boiling it down to that seems strange as most decisions invoke more thinking and more risk management than that.



Every storm and your current situation is different. No one decision fits all.


Thus learning tidbits from every angle is necessary, whether your own or someone else's.


Few people ever bat a 1000, but using the same tactic every time is sure to strike you out sooner or later.

 

[Tom.B]

The question as posted earlier by me and Ski remains. Why was this vessel and so many other boaters as well, there in the first place during hurricane season?

For the record... The Bahamas was the SAFEST place to be last year.

 

[psneeld]

Statistically Wilmington, NC should have been safe this year after last year.


It darn near got slammed again.

 

[boathealer]

Thus learning tidbits from every angle is necessary, whether your own or someone else's.

That's why I keep watching all those "cruisers" on Youtube. Good or bad, smart or dumb, I learn at least one thing from every one of those videos.

 

[Boat]

Backing up to when Dorian was just a babycane and predicted to spend several days over eighty-five degree water with no wind shear, come on, should have seen it coming.

Think back to the day, before modern communications, before modern storm prediction, see the swirling clouds coming and hide. The National Hurricane Center was formed in 1956. Talk about listen and learn, it is a privilege and a pleasure to tune in to the NHC.

 

[psneeld]

Be careful, the more I understand life.... The less I trust those that publish...either written or video...some of the worst are splashy bloggers.



While they are busy publishing, others are out learning.

 

[Boat]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#galveston


Galveston Hurricane 1900[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

This killer weather system was first detected over the tropical Atlantic on August 27. While the history of the track and intensity is not fully known, the system reached Cuba as a tropical storm on September 3 and moved into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 5th. A general west-northwestward motion occurred over the Gulf accompanied by rapid intensification. By the time the storm reached the Texas coast south of Galveston late on September 8, it was a Category 4 hurricane. After landfall, the cyclone turned northward through the Great Plains. It became extratropical and turned east-northeastward on September 11, passing across the Great Lakes, New England, and southeastern Canada. It was last spotted over the north Atlantic on September 15.
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This hurricane was the deadliest weather disaster in United States history. Storm tides of 8 to 15 ft inundated the whole of Galveston Island, as well as other portions of the nearby Texas coast. These tides were largely responsible for the 8,000 deaths (estimates range from 6,000 to 12,000) attributed to the storm. The damage to property was estimated at $30 million...[/FONT]

 

[boathealer]

Be careful, the more I understand life.... The less I Trish those that publish...either written or video...some of the worst are splashy bloggers

While they are busy publishing, others are out learning.

Yup.

My experiences appear to allow me to be able to pick out what matters and what doesn't.

 

[ksanders]

Guys, our lives are the result of the totality of the decisions we make. We generally analyze these decisions, and their results internally, but in this case the person that lost their boat posted their “story” on the internet inviting peer review.

The end result of a series of decisions was that he lost his boat, and put his family and friends at high risk of injury and or even death. That is indisputable.

The fact that others, when given the same data as this person made different decisions, resulting in the saving of their boat, and keeping out of harms way is also indisputable.

The natural conclusion is that if the person that lost his boat, and suffered in the hotel had chosen to instead leave, the results would have been far different.

The big take away from this is not that “stuff happens”. It is that leaving the area was a good decision for those that chose to leave, and staying was a poor decision. We should learn from this persons mistakes that they so graciously put into the public arena so that we do not repeat those mistakes.

I thank the person that lost his boat for being brave enough to weather critical review, so that others can learn.

 

[psneeld]

Where are those that claim "luck" is altered by ones "experience, decision making, etc...etc"...?????


If one studies investing/business/etc and has become a millionaire...they aren't usually bashful is saying how it was 'their" decisions over the less informed of their outcome.


Does one truly think avoiding hurricanes is really all that different?


Sure we all don't bat a thousand...but the best study the opponent to get the upper hand.


Sometimes it just doesn't matter and you swing and miss....just make sure that all you are betting is your boat and not your life or anyone else's.

 

[Marlinmike]

I really think the weather forecasters boned this one up, I follow weather a lot and this looked clearly like a 1 maybe low 2 that was going to skip the top of the Abacos, I remember watching the weather channel and I'm hearing gust of 200mph and surge of 20' on the day of, WTF?!?!

 

[psneeld]

Whenever they predict a turn because of a ridge or another steering air mass....all bets are off for ultimate track and intensity.


This cane had a few major turns...predicted (though ultimate path and intensity were off/unpredictable) when it was traveling straight....and the final track up the coast...I thing the models did a spectacular job...even though the forecasters were biting their nails the whole transit from Florida to Newfoundland which is quite the stretch.

 

[Boat]

You're right about the weather forecasters. It's on in the background sometimes but usually with the sound turned off. I remember back when weather people were kinda nerdy and homely. It wasn't about appearances, big tits and stuff.

This is my daily weather:

RAP Real-Time Weather

Links from there take you to more than you want to know.

I got these from this Trawler Forum and look at them sometimes too:

I think Richard on Dauntless posted this one:

https://earth.nullschool.net/

type an e for a setup menu

I forget who posted this, but thanks:

https://www.windy.com/?29.981,-90.166,5

 

[Boat]

My amateur prediction of Dorian was unusual even for me. It was not based on strengthening forces and steering forces but on a lack of weather; if you can make any sense of that.

 

[Group9]

Sometimes, OODA loop failure just kicks in. I think that's the reason a lot of people don't move their boats out of harms way (or even properly prepare them where they are), although no one likes to admit that as the reason later.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ooda-loop-decision-making-2017-8

 

[Boat]

Agreed, their ability was amazing in predicting the stall and the turn. Awe inspiring.

 

[sunchaser]

Sometimes, OODA loop failure just kicks in. I think that's the reason a lot of people don't move their boats out of harms way (or even properly prepare them where they are), although no one likes to admit that as the reason later.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ooda-loop-decision-making-2017-8

Good link, thanks. Kinda how Jack Reacher acts.

I note, on August 27th, in the Dorian thread you stated things were going to get pretty sporty in the Bahamas. Sadly prophetic.

 

[High Wire]

When I read through the story and saw the BEFORE photos of dock, those pilings looked pretty darn thin and short to hold a 20 ton vessel in any hurricane. That alone would have scared me out of there unless there was no better choice. The guy made his decision that he has to live with forever. But here behind my keyboard in NJ, that's easy to say.

 

[psneeld]

I think the military replaced the OODA concept with ORM in the late 90"s as I was part of the interservice ORM team. Same idea...just refined.



The International Organization for Standardization defines the risk management process in a four-step model:[3]

1. Establish context
2. Risk assessment
   • Risk identification
   • Risk analysis
   • Risk evaluation
3. Risk treatment
4. Monitor and review

 

[wkearney99]

But here behind my keyboard..., that's easy to say.

Which really speaks to the ease with which folks are ready to pile on the nearly gleeful amount of criticism when someone meets with misfortune.

It's an ugly behavior.

One usually checked in the past by the reality of physical interaction. As in, get your ass handed to you if you tried saying such things to someone in person. Or at the very least not wanting to risk the criticisms from one's peers.

But in recent years it's turned into an ugly 'mob of one' mentality, with little or no personal accountability. Not directed toward you, of course, just a general observation.

 

[wkearney99]

I think the military replaced the OODA concept with ORM in the late 90"s as I was part of the interservice ORM team. Same idea...just refined.

Motorcycle courses here in Maryland in the past used to teach 'SIPDE'. Scan, identify, predict, decide and execute'. This was also in the early 90's.

Look around, identify risks, predict what those risks might do, decide what you would do if that happened, adjust your driving accordingly.

I teach this to my boy when out on the water or on bicycles/scooters. Always assume there's something that'll present a risk to your passage and understand what you can and can't do to avoid problems.

Get to know how whatever you're operating handles and be ready to deal with issues armed with that understanding. Doesn't do much good to see a problem when it's too late to do anything about it.

 

[psneeld]

The motorcycle rule forgot the most important item.....the feedback loop....one of the main tenants of why ORM was enacted by the military.



No decision should ever be final... immediately after execution, new input can demand an alteration in how risks are mitigated.....and it starts all over again.


I don't think anyone is being gleeful.... I think most of us are scared shi*less of making the wrong decision when we have damage mitigation options....and maybe...and only maybe.... being forceful in our opinions of not that we think we are right...just praying we are.

 

[BandB]

Let's look back a moment. On 8/27, Dorian was forecast as a weak CAT 1. On 8/28, the forecast changed to a CAT 2 and then a CAT 3 with landfall around the middle of the FL east coast and then crossing over to the Gulf. GFS forecast had it passing north of Abaco and not over land. ECMWF was the first to have it passing over land there. On 8/28, it became a hurricane.

It passed over PR and VI with minimal damage as a CAT 1. On 8/29, the forecast changed to CAT 4 and landfall in FL was projected to be as early as 9/2 and as late as 9/4 by different models. On 8/31 it became a CAT 4, less than two days after the first forecast of a CAT 4 and only 3 days after first forecast of CAT 2 and then CAT 3.

On 9/1 it became a CAT 5 and made landfall on Elbow Cay. It reached 185 mph winds that had never been forecast.

From the moment it first became a hurricane until the time it was a CAT 5 was 4 days. From the time it was forecast to be a CAT 1 until forecast to be a CAT 4 was less than 2 days and less than a day later the forecast was CAT 5.

We talk about it following the forecast path but that was after the path was changed over and over. As to intensity, there was less than 48 hours between the first forecast of a CAT 4 and actual CAT 4. The pattern was very much daily increases in forecast intensity based on increases in actual intensity. Very little advance. First person to even say CAT 3 or 4 was on the table was Chris Parker on 8/28, but no official forecast mention of CAT 4 until 8/29.

Landfall was forecast for various parts of the coast of the US. There were dueling models. Some had landfall as far south as South Florida and others as far north as SC. All the models had US landfall, yet the only landfall in the US was in the Cape Hatteras area. Only other coastal landfall was Nova Scotia.

Another change along the way. Initially it was a small tight hurricane and forecast to remain the same. As time went on, it became massive in size.

What have we learned? Well, one thing appears obvious, all the forecasters and all the models are doing a woeful job in underestimating intensity. They've done it now for 4 years at least and for many storms. They've done it with Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Michael, all either 4's or 5's. From 1963 to 2016, there were officially four CAT 4's or 5's. Now, just as Maria doesn't show up on the mainland chart, neither will Dorian.

Now, suffering a bit from post hurricane stress disorder, next time I hear a forecast for a CAT 1 on it's way, I'll think CAT 5. I guess we always knew they could intensify greater than forecast, but now I feel as they approach, they probably will. At the same time we've had tremendous impact of flooding from lesser storms. That really hit us with Sandy, but since we've had regular storms enhanced by Joaquin, Matthew, Harvey (although not a lesser storm but was by the time it hit Houston), and Florence.

I admit to having been rather dismissive of CAT 1's and even CAT 2's, but now I won't be so much, not until they arrive and are still only CAT 1 or 2. I will not trust the forecast and am far more conscious of the fact intensity can easily be far more than forecast.

The first CAT 3 forecast on Dorian was 8/28, first CAT 4 was 8/29. On 8/31 it was a CAT 4 and on 9/1 it made landfall as a CAT 5, as an extremely strong CAT 5, not just a CAT 5. Because we followed Dorian so long we seem to think there was far more time to anticipate it's damage than there was.

 

[psneeld]

To me the discussion of intensification gives more credence to moving than staing put.


As the Abacos found out as well as Florida's panhandle last year...surviving a CAT 5 hit is never a good bet....moving gives you some chance....and often seen...you really don't have to move far to escape the worst of it.



You just have to have a tidbit for which way and even then be prepared to move again.



No....leaving port for the open ocean is not a great option...but I think that's Ski's point. If you are on a small island during hurricane season, you have already limited your chances. Staying there when there is a chance to move...well...sort of the same argument.

 

[sunchaser]

Which really speaks to the ease with which folks are ready to pile on the nearly gleeful amount of criticism when someone meets with misfortune.

It's an ugly behavior.

One usually checked in the past by the reality of physical interaction. As in, get your ass handed to you if you tried saying such things to someone in person. Or at the very least not wanting to risk the criticisms from one's peers.

But in recent years it's turned into an ugly 'mob of one' mentality, with little or no personal accountability. Not directed toward you, of course, just a general observation.

WK
Not all are gleefully reacting. As have been responsibly pointed out, there are a few positive lessons to be learned from this event. This is the strength of the Internet, to learn while ignoring the crap. Remember too, PMM posted the well circulated blog, intentionally eliciting comment. It worked.

 

[McGillicuddy]

For those who think being in the Bahamas during hurricane season is an unreasonable risk just think of the huge areas of potential risk worldwide during hurricane season. Should we all abandon boating during the summer months and then again during winter storm season?
On the Dorian thread alone just look at all the potential landfalls and horrific loss of life and property that was a possibility. All the way from the Virgins to Nova Scotia. Was everyone who owned a boat in these areas foolhardy for being there in hurricane season?
I owned a nice sailboat and lived in New Orleans. When Katrina came along and destroyed everything there were many who said it was foolhardy to live in a city below sea level and I was stupid to be there. Yet there are many millions who live in Coastal Cities who take the same risk. Think Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay, Savannah and even New York City all of whom have been subjected to damaging hurricanes. Of that list, only New Orleans suffered a Cat 5. The major flooding of Houston was only a Cat I but it hung around for three days. How catastrophic would it have been as a stalled Cat 5. Yet many second guess princes from that city have made fun of my choice to live in New Orleans at the time.
I was on my boat in St. Petersburg for Irma. Ask me how many boaters were tied up in that area knowing it was hurricane season. How many boats are in the Caribbean right now? Or the West Coast of Mexico? If the right combination of storm strength and direction hits, how stupid will boaters in these areas be? How about Chesapeake? Or in towns south of Hatteras? Maybe Panama City, FL?
Let’s face it, all of the after the disaster commentators are just that, opinionated commentators. Unless your boat was there and you were analyzing your own risk, you don’t know what you would have done. I have stayed at that exact marina in Marsh Harbor just this year. Talking with the fine people who run the place, they tell me that they consider the marina to be a fine hurricane hole. It is well situated tucked in the corner of a well protected bay with a ridge of high ground to its back. Pilings had been recently replaced. I’m sure all of that came in to the decision making.
Marsh Harbor was a three day daylight only run from West Palm Beach for me at 9 knots. It is a full two days to Freeport going north around and over the northern shoal areal or similar headed south and then west around the deep water at the south end of Abaco. Both routes require an exit through a possible rage, that is a pass where tide runs against swells to produce very dangerous conditions. If taking the southern route, next south be the deep Atlantic trench to the Berries where it shoals rapidly and then across the shoals to Bimini.from there a crossing of the Gulf Stream is necessary and it is well known that any northerly component of wind against the stream causes very difficult conditions and is to be avoided. An approaching hurricane would announce itself with northerly winds. So I wouldn’t take that route.
Remember the sailboat that headed to Cuba from Freeport had a day and a half start over a vessel leaving Marsh Harbor traveling at 8 knots.
Taking the Northern Route would have required rounding Whale Cay and thus subjecting your vessel to the rage twice (out then back in again) then up the sound and a left turn to cross the shoals which is about 12 hours transit daylight only for the wise. (I do know a few people who would run it at night but that requires a bit of local knowledge and I don’t recommend it) then after that is a crossing of the Gulf Stream with the hope there is no northerly component to the wind.
A straight run to escape to the south might be feasible only if you know the hurricane was headed to Abaco. However, even Nassau to the south was under hurricane watch so that would have been out for me.
So, if you find yourself in Abaco in the face of an approaching storm, your best bet is to tuck deeply in the bay and tie off as best you could. This is what the writer did. As I wrote earlier, his decision making process was sound for being where he was at the time.
As for being in the Bahamas during a hurricane season. I consider that the be just noise.