PM story on a sunken GB in Hopetown

[BandB]

Of course there is the obvious question, as posed several times earlier in this thread. Why leave one's vessel in the "islands" during hurricane season to begin with? Which is the same question insurance carriers raise with ever increasing frequency.

Perhaps because no CAT 5 winds had hit here since 1932 and the only CAT 4 in decades was Floyd in 1999? Perhaps because had this hurricane stayed as forecast in intensity it would not have damaged the boat? Perhaps because had this storm gone 30 miles north of where it was (original forecast path) it would not have damaged the boat? This storm was an outlier to what they'd faced.

Since 1999, here's what they've seen. 2012 Sandy, 80 mph. 2011 Irene, 105 mph. 2004, Jeanne, 115 mph, Frances 105 mph. So one CAT 3 and 2 CAT 2's. Prior to Floyd, you have to go back to 1933 to find a CAT 4.

 

[psneeld]

If there were great hurricane holes in the islands....it wouldn't matter as much.

I can't say for sure how many there are or how good they are...but insurance companies seem to think there's not enough to safely hide your boat from even a Cat 1 I most cases

 

[sunchaser]

BB
Please note I said islands. Every year a few hurricanes hit the islands. Where and when you choose to cruise is a personal decision shared with friends and family. Your choice and call, mine and many others may choose a less risky adventure.

I spent decades building big projects where catastrophic events must be mitigated on a 5,000 to 10,000 year basis or no loans and permits would spring forth. Getting approvals for 50 to 100 year events would get one laughed right off the first step.

 

[Seevee]

I am NOT arguing that LUCK is a substitute for training and experience. I AM arguing that LUCK (or whatever you wish to call it, Divine intervention....etc.) can cancel ALL the training and experience you have. a broken part that was made correctly and installed correctly and inspected correctly several times and then broke unpredictably in a way that made the aircraft nose down at 50 feet above the threshold, is LUCK.
As an engineer that designed things for the military we were painfully aware that Murpy would reach up and cancel ALL planning And ALL experience, when you least expected it.
Yes, you can plan for almost everything, but some things just cant AND shouldnt be planned for because the effort is more than the risk.

Jim,


Your premise is valid, however, 99.9% of the pilots out there just don't have luck intervene or devine intervention. We PREPARE for the worse and have SOPs and procedures. We do not push the envelope. And we have smart mechanics maintain our planes. (Heck, I maintain my own, but have a second mechanic to occasionally look over things).


Rogue wave.... sure, but I could argue to do a better job of checking the wx for conditions that produce them.



Out of 27000 hours of flying, I have yet to see ONE luck experience that couldn't have been prevented by better training or SOPs. Unfortunately, most accidents (airplane and boat) are the captains error. Now, there were a few that were questionable and close to luck.



I don't have nearly the boating experience that you folks have, but same thing, with 20 boats I've owned and boating for over 40 years.... NO luck involved in ANY accident. All would have been prevented with better training or just not doing stupid things.


Sure, luck can show up..... but I'd bet on training and SOPs as number one.

 

[BruceK]

I`ve heard said "The harder I study and work, the luckier I get".

Of course it`s not really luck at all. The good result, superficially from good luck, comes from study and work.

 

[slowgoesit]

Well, not quite.....LOL. I had the controls but not the answer, in fact had been warned NOT to do it. But I was not waiting for death either. I had full confidence in Norris and wasnt even worried, I just handed it over to him to "fix". He was the one that was worried....because of all his experience. I was too ignorant to be worried....only 12 hours time under my belt.

Are you speaking of 12 hours IN TYPE? Or 12 hours TOTAL flight time? If 12 hours of total flight time, . . . . well, that brings up a whole nother discussion of why your FI thought you were capable of practicing spins while solo!

 

[jimisbell]

Are you speaking of 12 hours IN TYPE? Or 12 hours TOTAL flight time? If 12 hours of total flight time, . . . . well, that brings up a whole nother discussion of why your FI thought you were capable of practicing spins while solo!

12 hours TOTAL, soloed at 6 hours, all 12 in type. He thought I was good. I had a lower opinion of myself. Back in those days we started spins in the second hour, before one took us out. I have one of the "blue seal" licenses that show you had to be proficient in spins to get the license. Now days they dont even teach spins. They thought they were loosing too many pilots when they taught spins. Personally, I think not being proficient in spins is dangerous. Response has to be instantaneous if you are near the ground.

 

[k9medic]

Hmmm. I wonder this discussion puts me -

I'm a pilot
I have a boat
I have a house on one of the outer Cays in the Abacos

Never in my dreams would I have though that a hurricane would sit over my house for 2 days.

 

[psneeld]

No but it was a higher probability than many other places...any yet lower for tornadoes, spring floods, wildfires and earthquakes.


So it should have been in one of your nightmares...but as long as you can take the hit every so years that falls in line with the probabilities of a repeat...that's what life is made of.

 

[BandB]

Hmmm. I wonder this discussion puts me -

I'm a pilot
I have a boat
I have a house on one of the outer Cays in the Abacos

Never in my dreams would I have though that a hurricane would sit over my house for 2 days.

Nor would you have imagined it would be a 185 mph CAT 5.

 

[slowgoesit]

12 hours TOTAL, soloed at 6 hours, all 12 in type. He thought I was good. I had a lower opinion of myself. Back in those days we started spins in the second hour, before one took us out. I have one of the "blue seal" licenses that show you had to be proficient in spins to get the license. Now days they dont even teach spins. They thought they were loosing too many pilots when they taught spins. Personally, I think not being proficient in spins is dangerous. Response has to be instantaneous if you are near the ground.

I didn't get spin training until later on in the course. Soloed at 10 hours (I think), license at 40 hours. I appreciated doing spins, and being comfortable with them. Most well designed aircraft, if controls are released, will naturally pull out of a spin, ending up in a dive . . . if you have enough altitude. If not, you'd better know how to handle it, or your friends will be kind to your wife and attempt to console her in other ways . . .

 

[Group9]

Once again, proving the adage, that hoping really hard that nothing bad happens, is not really a plan.

 

[McGillicuddy]

My flying lessons came courtesy of the Royal Air Force in 1968. First flight flight was flat spins, loops and barrel rolls. After the flight, I asked instructor why we didn’t start with straight and level flight? Answer was, “Sonny, this is the air force, we need to know that if you find yourself upside down you can still get this expensive aero plane home in one piece. And if you are a puker, better for us to find out now before we spend a whole bunch of time and money on you.” Mind you my Air Force career was very short. At the end of basic flight training the whole class was washed out. Harold Wilson and his Labor Party (socialist government) had slashed the defense budget. Had to wait on Maggie Thatcher to come to power to turn that around and by then I had moved on to a career at sea.
Sorry about extreme thread creep. I will stop talking now.

 

[Juggerknot]

And if there boat had become disabled after leaving, we would be referring to them far differently. The difference between smart and stupid in this scenario only comes down to whether you were successful.

Ted[/QUOT


Success has a thousand fathers yet failure is an orphan...

 

[OldDan1943]

Sorry about extreme thread creep. I will stop talking now.

Did you at least get your civilian pilots license?

 

[skipgundlach]

Success has a thousand fathers yet failure is an orphan...

What he said. In spades.

 

[psneeld]

Any yet as a society havent we swayed that way?


If you don't follow the pack and don't succeed .....are you not crucified whether there is merit in your decision or not?


So is a person to weigh the potential loss or gain based on an abundance of data or judged by the outcome only in terms of success or failure?


The "success stories" I think that were used in this discussion were to prove to the naysayers that "running" is always a bad decision is not always true.... not that it is the "preferred" decision in all cases....but in some where there WAS enough info to seek an alternative to staying put and battening down.

 

[McGillicuddy]

Did you at least get your civilian pilots license?

Long time ago. Been flying in the States for over 30 years, gliders/sailplanes, and instrument rated power. Owned, in sequence, Piper Cherokee, Rockwell Commander and Cirrus SR22. Made it a point to fly to each corner of the USA, Florida, Maine, Alaska and Southern Cal. It’s been a blast.

 

[OldDan1943]

Long time ago. Been flying in the States for over 30 years, gliders/sailplanes, and instrument rated power. Owned, in sequence, Piper Cherokee, Rockwell Commander and Cirrus SR22. Made it a point to fly to each corner of the USA, Florida, Maine, Alaska and Southern Cal. It’s been a blast.

Then it wasn't a total loss. SMILE
You arrived pre-trained.

 

[SoWhat]

I didn't get spin training until later on in the course.

I received a lot of stall recovery training in 152. Then a friend took me up in his Citabria. Oh, so THAT'S what a spin is. (His wife gave him a parachute for christmas one year)

Like docking a boat in high wind. Takes a lot of practice.

 

[McGillicuddy]

Then it wasn't a total loss. SMILE

You arrived pre-trained.

Yeah you right!
I hate to say it in this forum but the sea is my vocation but flying was my passion.