Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 05-25-2017, 09:38 PM   #1
Senior Member
 
Acheron2010's Avatar
 
City: New Tazewell
Country: United States
Vessel Name: Saoirse
Vessel Model: 1983 Nauticat 44 Ketch
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 151
NOAA Says More Hurricanes - what's ur Plan

Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

I'm a west coast sailor, and do not know what is the "normal" procedure for those in the frequent path of hurricanes.
Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina? What do you do when the big one comes?
__________________
Advertisement

Acheron2010 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2017, 10:07 PM   #2
Enigma
 
RT Firefly's Avatar
 
City: Slicker?
Country: Bumpkin?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,456
Greetings,
Mr. A20. "Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina?" All or none of the above or tie down as best you can and hold on. There are only so many hurricane holes and too many boats. The variability of landfall, direction and strength of various systems makes selection of a 100% safe location difficult. Just my $.02...I'm sure others will offer their more experienced views.
__________________

__________________
RTF
RT Firefly is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2017, 10:09 PM   #3
Guru
 
Comodave's Avatar
 
City: Au Gres, MI
Country: US
Vessel Name: Never Say Never
Vessel Model: President 41 DC
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 4,492
Our plan is to stay in Michigan during hurricane season.
Comodave is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2017, 10:09 PM   #4
Master and Commander
 
markpierce's Avatar
 
City: Vallejo CA
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Carquinez Coot
Vessel Model: penultimate Seahorse Marine Coot hull #6
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 11,276
Gee. One should expect "more than normal" hurricanes half of the time.
__________________
Kar-KEEN-ez Koot
markpierce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2017, 10:32 PM   #5
Guru
 
swampu's Avatar


 
City: Biloxi, MS
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Cajun Rose
Vessel Model: Biloxi Lugger
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,330
I have two spots, both up the river. One is about 3 miles and the other is about 5. The first one is full I'll go to the next one
swampu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2017, 11:04 PM   #6
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 16,660
We stay right where we are. We do make sure all lines are doubled and right and that the boats are the best protected they can be. We use what we feel is a well protected marina. This is South Florida with a huge volume of boats. There's no where to take them all and certainly can't remove them all from the water.

Different people in different areas plan differently.
BandB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 01:25 AM   #7
Guru
 
Benthic2's Avatar
 
City: Boston Area
Country: United States
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,460
That is comical.

The headline says "Above normal Atlantic Hurricane season is likely this year"....
but the article says that there is a 45% chance of an above normal season....

45 % is less than half....that means there is a 55% chance of an average season or less hurricane activity than average.

And more importantly....even if they knew what they were doing...it would be totally irrelevant.

Just imagine 20 named storms making landfall this year. That would be a terrible year....yes ???

But....if all 20 storms hit Miami and you keep your boat in Myrtle Beach, you had a great year.....

If only 1 named storm makes landfall, that would be a great year for everyone....unless that 1 storm hit your marina.....

National statistics mean nothing for an individual, and NOAA says that above average hurricane activity has a 45% chance of happening...and they call that "likely" ....but that means that there's a 55% chance of average or less than average activity...and that seems 'More Likely".....

its all a crapshoot.....pay attention....move when you need to....and ignore the predictions.
Benthic2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 01:51 AM   #8
Master and Commander
 
markpierce's Avatar
 
City: Vallejo CA
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Carquinez Coot
Vessel Model: penultimate Seahorse Marine Coot hull #6
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 11,276
The Weather Service is just guessing. Hurricanes are a normal occurrence in some portions of the Earth. ... Thankfully, I don't have to deal with them near my home port. ... Have experienced two hurricanes on ships, once receiving a serious knee strain taking two years to heal.
__________________
Kar-KEEN-ez Koot
markpierce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 05:57 AM   #9
Guru
 
O C Diver's Avatar
 
City: Fort Myers, FL... Summers in Crisfield, MD
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Slow Hand
Vessel Model: Cherubini Independence 45
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 7,306
NOAA's predictions are historically wrong. You have better accuracy predicting with a coin toss. Avoiding FL during hurricane season is the first part of my plan. Spending most of it in the Great Lakes this year.

Ted
__________________
Blog: mvslowhand.com
I'm tired of fast moves, I've got a slow groove, on my mind.....
I want to spend some time, Not come and go in a heated rush.....
"Slow Hand" by The Pointer Sisters
O C Diver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 07:16 AM   #10
Guru
 
Nomad Willy's Avatar
 
City: Concrete Washington State
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Willy
Vessel Model: Willard Nomad 30'
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 15,773
Mark wrote;
"The Weather Service is just guessing"

Hogwash.
I'm supprised at you Mark. I would think an incredible amount of information is fed into a pool and all the information is aligned to the greatest probabilities. Sure, probabilities may not happen. But far more likely the probabilities will happen, to some degree or to a greater degree than most anyone fears. Gambling is stupid. Acting on the best scientific predictions is smart.
__________________
Eric

North Western Washington State USA
Nomad Willy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 07:16 AM   #11
Guru
 
ranger42c's Avatar
 
City: Maryland
Country: USA
Vessel Model: 42' Sportfish
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 4,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acheron2010 View Post
Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina? What do you do when the big one comes?

Yes. The "which" depends on more storm detail... but then also depends on how quickly our own yard might be able to haul and block if necessary, whether significant follow-on storm surge (which might flood our back lot) is also predicted, whether temporary slips are available at our preferred better-protected marinas, etc.

IOW, it depends.

-Chris
__________________
South River, Chesapeake Bay
ranger42c is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 08:24 AM   #12
Guru
 
cardude01's Avatar
 
City: Victoria TX
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet steadysailer
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 4,145
My plan is like BandB's. Find a marina in FL where I can get back to from the Bahamas in a day or three, tie up and prepare, then get out.

Some marinas make boats move if a hurricane is coming, right?
cardude01 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 08:36 AM   #13
Enigma
 
RT Firefly's Avatar
 
City: Slicker?
Country: Bumpkin?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 12,456
Greetings,
Mr. 01. Yup. it's my understanding some marinas DO make you leave.
__________________
RTF
RT Firefly is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 10:12 AM   #14
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 16,660
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude01 View Post
My plan is like BandB's. Find a marina in FL where I can get back to from the Bahamas in a day or three, tie up and prepare, then get out.

Some marinas make boats move if a hurricane is coming, right?
Not in Florida. It's illegal to do so.
BandB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 10:30 AM   #15
Senior Member
 
City: Wherever the boat is
Country: United States
Vessel Name: Silver Quarter
Vessel Model: Bayliner 3870
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 456
I am somewhat new to the southeast US, originally from the PNW. Matthew was my first hurricane. I recently had a dock neighbor tell me the other day "well.. you have to be *somewhere*, so its just a matter if the hurricane is in the same place or not" For some reason this gave me comfort.
kev_rm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 10:59 AM   #16
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 16,660
Quote:
Originally Posted by kev_rm View Post
I am somewhat new to the southeast US, originally from the PNW. Matthew was my first hurricane. I recently had a dock neighbor tell me the other day "well.. you have to be *somewhere*, so its just a matter if the hurricane is in the same place or not" For some reason this gave me comfort.
Some areas seem to have more activity than others or so you believe until....

Those in NJ thought it was a SE issue, until Sandy.

SE Florida has been a long time without, but then this is the 25th anniversary of Andrew.

Then rule number one. Don't risk life for property.
BandB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 11:26 AM   #17
Senior Member
 
City: Wherever the boat is
Country: United States
Vessel Name: Silver Quarter
Vessel Model: Bayliner 3870
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by BandB View Post
Some areas seem to have more activity than others or so you believe until....

Those in NJ thought it was a SE issue, until Sandy.

SE Florida has been a long time without, but then this is the 25th anniversary of Andrew.

Then rule number one. Don't risk life for property.
+10000 on that rule.

did find it totally amazing all the bravado about people staying behind for Matthew in October. Me - took dog and cat in the RV west on the interstate a couple hours and had a lovely if breezy evening in a state park, came back to two very large trees on the house (boat was fine)
kev_rm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 12:04 PM   #18
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: AICW
Country: USA
Vessel Name: Freedom
Vessel Model: Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 19,347
Oh horse pucky....anyone that understands hurricanes knows that any waterfront from Texas to Maine can be devastated by weather....

Matthew wasn't a hurricane when it hit NJ...it was extratropical.

I have lived in Miami, Pensacola, Mobile, Annapolis and NJ and weathered the effects of hurricanes and extratropical storms.

Only an idiot boater does't understand and follow them closely.

In 45 years of owning boats in those places and a few more, Matthew was the only one I ever moved a boat for. I have studied them like a hawk...of course in my USCG career, I was also responsible for hurricane preparedness and asset movement when necessary.

So no, not only SE residents care about hurricanes.

In fact experienced boaters know the Northeast probably experiences more destructive Noreasters than east coast Florida has experienced hurricanes.....

No offense to the panhandlers...you get your assessment kicked on a regular basis.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 12:24 PM   #19
Guru
 
Seevee's Avatar
 
City: st pete
Country: usa
Vessel Model: 400 Mainship
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 2,075
I'm securing the boats on the docks behind the house and if a cat 1 or greater approaches from the west, I'm leaving town and hope for the best.

History is on our side in the Tampa St. Pete area.
__________________
Seevee
Seevee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2017, 12:35 PM   #20
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Country: USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 16,660
But lot's of people don't know. I hear all the time people talking about keeping their boat north of FL which some insurers might encourage, but as far as providing hurricane protection, just doesn't. People say you can't get insurance to cover their boat in FL. That's just such a crazy statement when you realize there are more boats in FL than any other state. One can research the history and then even toss that aside a bit knowing the next one might make history. The Gulf Coast certainly has it's share. I have a cousin who lives near Beaufort, NC and he's been impacted by hurricanes far more than we have. Plain and simple, if you live on or near a coast, you may have a storm and if it's the East or Gulf Coast, then you may have an Atlantic hurricane. You follow them, monitor, and make the best choices you can based on the available information.

People can evacuate, but you can't move your home when a hurricane approaches and while some may move boats, the majority of boats cannot be evacuated.

So much misinformation too and living in Fort Lauderdale, we get questioned by others who act as if we're in the middle of a war zone. Yet, the hurricanes to hit Fort Lauderdale have been few and far between. We get asked about flooding and people are shocked that living just off the ICW we're in a zone and elevation that hasn't flooded in the last 100 years and is only in a moderate flood zone, not upper level.
__________________

BandB is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012