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Old 05-27-2016, 10:18 PM   #1
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Hurricane season approaching . . .

Yep. Regular as clockwork. June 1st through November 30th is hurricane season. Generally speaking, from North Carolina down through the Florida Keys, the Gulf Coast, and the Bahamas are all areas which need to keep a weather eye out, although (again generally speaking) September and October are the worst months. Best advice that I can offer is to keep a close eye on the National Hurricane Center website (National Hurricane Center) to see what is going on, should you be in our area.

And a lot of very experienced boaters on the Trawler Forum, also, so they bear listening to. A good thread is at securing for hurricanes
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Old 05-27-2016, 10:38 PM   #2
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Doesn't time fly.

Since Category 3 Hurricane Wilma roared ashore in South Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, the Sunshine State has gone over 10 years without a single hurricane landfall.

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Old 05-27-2016, 11:30 PM   #3
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Yep, here we go....

"On this Friday morning, NHC continues to closely watch the low pressure area located between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The shower activity associated with it continues to show signs of organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. It has a high chance (90%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

All interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon." ..

.

Invest 91-L - is expected to become Tropical Depression #2 or Tropical Storm Bonnie by late today or Saturday .. and will impact coastal areas of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia throughout the Memorial Day weekend ..

.

Invest 91-L - is located near 27.6 North Latitude, 72.9 West Longitude, is disorganized this morning even though the amount of wind shear impacting this system is lower today, compared to what it was 24 hours ago .. even though this system is disorganized, it has become a little more organized this morning .. with the forecast for favorable environmental conditions over the next couple of days we fully expect Invest 91-L to become Tropical Depression #2 and then very probably Tropical Storm Bonnie late today or during the day on Saturday .. finally, a reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 91-L to determine whether it has become a tropical depression or a tropical storm ..

.

looking ahead - at the environmental conditions around Invest 91-L, there is 10 to 20 knots of west-southwesterly wind shear impacting this system and this is more favorable for development as compared to the environment it encountered yesterday .. it is apparent that wind shear values will range from 5 to 15 knots as Invest 91-L approaches the South Carolina coastline from later today through Saturday and I think that “all systems are go” for this to be a tropical depression and very probably a tropical storm as it moves along the South Carolina coast during Saturday and Saturday night ..

.

at this time - the latest model track guidance are clustered around a path that takes it inland along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and Hilton Head Island during Sunday afternoon as a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm .. the HWRF model is a little further north than the model cluster and forecasts Invest 91-L to come ashore between Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina late Saturday night or Sunday morning as a 45 mph tropical storm ..

.

bottom line - we think that when reconnaissance aircraft get into Invest 91-L and investigate it this afternoon, they will find that it is a Tropical Depression .. in addition we think that it is very likely (80 percent) that this system will strengthen further into Tropical Storm Bonnie sometime during the day on Saturday ..

.

as of right now - we are thinking that we will see a landfall near Charleston, South Carolina around midday Sunday as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm .. then as we get into Monday and Tuesday, it looks likely, based on all of the data that we have looked at, that this system will track right along the coast of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina and slowly weaken before it becomes entrained into a eastward moving frontal boundary by the middle part of next week ..

.

also - at this time I t looks unlikely that Invest 91-L will have enough time over water to become a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane and instead I think we should see it peak out at a moderately strong tropical storm ..

.

coastal Georgia, Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina - rain and gusty winds are forecast to gradually spread inland starting along the coast of eastern and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening and spreading southwestward across coastal parts of South Carolina by late Saturday night and Sunday morning and possibly parts of the Georgia coast during Sunday. We are not forecasting excessive amounts of rainfall or excessive amounts of wind, but there is expected to be enough of a combination of rain and wind to produce a nasty weekend along the beaches and coast of eastern and southeastern North Carolina, South Carolina and parts of Georgia ..

.

rain totals - rain and gusty winds are forecast to gradually spread inland starting along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina from Charleston to Cape Hatteras by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night and then spread southwestward across the rest of the South Carolina coast by Sunday morning and then possibly as far south as Savannah, Georgia during the day on Sunday. Overall, we are not forecasting excessive amounts of rainfall or excessive amounts of wind, but there is expected to be enough of a combination of rain and wind to produce a nasty weekend across the beaches and coast of North Carolina and South Carolina.



winds - the exact track and intensity of this system will dictate how much wind occurs across coastal parts of North and South Carolina. Right now, I would say prepare for wind gusts of 40 or 50 mph at times along the immediate coast of South Carolina and the immediate coast of southeastern and eastern North Carolina, especially from Charleston, South Carolina to Wilmington, North Carolina, from Saturday night through Sunday and into Sunday evening ..
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Old 05-28-2016, 12:25 AM   #4
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Sounds like "situation normal." Hope the rest of the year makes up for the hurricane season.
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Old 05-28-2016, 01:18 AM   #5
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If the last few years are any clue, there wont be many full blown hurricanes this year either. They always forecast more than actually occur it seems. Especially since so many have their knickers in a twist about so called global warming.
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Old 05-28-2016, 06:22 AM   #6
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after being sued for a bad forecast the buro tends to magnify every drop of rain into a deluge.
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Old 05-28-2016, 06:57 AM   #7
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Hurricane season makes up for Hurricane season, beautiful warm clear water, miles upon miles of gorgeous undeveloped beaches, wonderful anchorages and cool places to take your boat. Dealing with the boat is a major PITA when a named storm is coming, but you forget about that quick the other 95% of the time. And, it's never earthquake season.

By the way, storm action around the entire globe has increased, for those of you who choose not to pay attention.
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Old 05-28-2016, 08:39 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menzies View Post
Doesn't time fly.

Since Category 3 Hurricane Wilma roared ashore in South Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, the Sunshine State has gone over 10 years without a single hurricane landfall.

That is true but it still doesn't keep the insurance industry from charging home owners rates as if 2005 is going to occur every year.
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Old 05-30-2016, 06:55 AM   #9
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"That is true but it still doesn't keep the insurance industry from charging home owners rates as if 2005 is going to occur every year"

I asked USAA why my rates were going up since (thank God!) its been 11 years since a hard blow.

Their response was the FL gov had not allowed the rates to reflect their losses a decade ago, and they were still playing catch up.

Anyone moving to a hurricane zone should get the rulles from their insurance company , Before looking at homes.

A hip roof can be insured for about 1/2 the cost of a gable roof.

There are many rules to know before you purchase.

Even useless FEMA has some ideas for better construction.
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Old 05-30-2016, 07:52 AM   #10
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My home insurance has gone down since 2004. Paying less than I did in 2004. Have the hip roofs, steel reinforced block walls, extra nailed shingles, metal ties from roof to walls, and hurricane rated windows. Guess it was those FEMA guidlines that allowed the insurance companies to classify some home as a significantly lower risk. Currently my premium as a percentage of replacement value is .3%.

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Old 05-30-2016, 08:09 AM   #11
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I asked USAA why my rates were going up since (thank God!) its been 11 years since a hard blow.

Their response was the FL gov had not allowed the rates to reflect their losses a decade ago, and they were still playing catch up.
You fall for that???

BTW, my house was built to the 2006 Miami-Dade Hurricane standards and has a hp roof of tile and cement. Doesn't stop the insurance carpetbaggers.
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Old 05-31-2016, 06:07 AM   #12
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I consider insurance to be a big con, but a total loss wiuld be hard on the budget.

Should a twister or hurricane eat the house the next will be poured concrete in foam forms with a commercial metal roof , and shutters.

With a bit of effort hurricane insurance would be dirt cheap or not purchased.

Still need insurance tho for a trespasser that steps on a lawn rake , etc.
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