Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 05-27-2016, 09:18 PM   #1
Moderator Emeritus
 
jwnall's Avatar
 
City: St. Marks, Florida
Vessel Name: Morgan
Vessel Model: Gulfstar 36
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 3,673
Hurricane season approaching . . .

Yep. Regular as clockwork. June 1st through November 30th is hurricane season. Generally speaking, from North Carolina down through the Florida Keys, the Gulf Coast, and the Bahamas are all areas which need to keep a weather eye out, although (again generally speaking) September and October are the worst months. Best advice that I can offer is to keep a close eye on the National Hurricane Center website (National Hurricane Center) to see what is going on, should you be in our area.

And a lot of very experienced boaters on the Trawler Forum, also, so they bear listening to. A good thread is at http://www.trawlerforum.com/forums/s...anes-7596.html
__________________
John
jwnall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2016, 09:38 PM   #2
Guru
 
menzies's Avatar
 
City: Jacksonville
Vessel Name: SONAS
Vessel Model: Grand Alaskan 53
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,235
Doesn't time fly.

Since Category 3 Hurricane Wilma roared ashore in South Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, the Sunshine State has gone over 10 years without a single hurricane landfall.

menzies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2016, 10:30 PM   #3
Moderator Emeritus
 
dimer2's Avatar
 
City: Cameron, La
Vessel Name: Baobab
Vessel Model: Bayliner 4788
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,660
Yep, here we go....

"On this Friday morning, NHC continues to closely watch the low pressure area located between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The shower activity associated with it continues to show signs of organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. It has a high chance (90%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

All interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon." ..

.

Invest 91-L - is expected to become Tropical Depression #2 or Tropical Storm Bonnie by late today or Saturday .. and will impact coastal areas of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia throughout the Memorial Day weekend ..

.

Invest 91-L - is located near 27.6 North Latitude, 72.9 West Longitude, is disorganized this morning even though the amount of wind shear impacting this system is lower today, compared to what it was 24 hours ago .. even though this system is disorganized, it has become a little more organized this morning .. with the forecast for favorable environmental conditions over the next couple of days we fully expect Invest 91-L to become Tropical Depression #2 and then very probably Tropical Storm Bonnie late today or during the day on Saturday .. finally, a reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 91-L to determine whether it has become a tropical depression or a tropical storm ..

.

looking ahead - at the environmental conditions around Invest 91-L, there is 10 to 20 knots of west-southwesterly wind shear impacting this system and this is more favorable for development as compared to the environment it encountered yesterday .. it is apparent that wind shear values will range from 5 to 15 knots as Invest 91-L approaches the South Carolina coastline from later today through Saturday and I think that “all systems are go” for this to be a tropical depression and very probably a tropical storm as it moves along the South Carolina coast during Saturday and Saturday night ..

.

at this time - the latest model track guidance are clustered around a path that takes it inland along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and Hilton Head Island during Sunday afternoon as a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm .. the HWRF model is a little further north than the model cluster and forecasts Invest 91-L to come ashore between Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina late Saturday night or Sunday morning as a 45 mph tropical storm ..

.

bottom line - we think that when reconnaissance aircraft get into Invest 91-L and investigate it this afternoon, they will find that it is a Tropical Depression .. in addition we think that it is very likely (80 percent) that this system will strengthen further into Tropical Storm Bonnie sometime during the day on Saturday ..

.

as of right now - we are thinking that we will see a landfall near Charleston, South Carolina around midday Sunday as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm .. then as we get into Monday and Tuesday, it looks likely, based on all of the data that we have looked at, that this system will track right along the coast of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina and slowly weaken before it becomes entrained into a eastward moving frontal boundary by the middle part of next week ..

.

also - at this time I t looks unlikely that Invest 91-L will have enough time over water to become a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane and instead I think we should see it peak out at a moderately strong tropical storm ..

.

coastal Georgia, Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina - rain and gusty winds are forecast to gradually spread inland starting along the coast of eastern and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening and spreading southwestward across coastal parts of South Carolina by late Saturday night and Sunday morning and possibly parts of the Georgia coast during Sunday. We are not forecasting excessive amounts of rainfall or excessive amounts of wind, but there is expected to be enough of a combination of rain and wind to produce a nasty weekend along the beaches and coast of eastern and southeastern North Carolina, South Carolina and parts of Georgia ..

.

rain totals - rain and gusty winds are forecast to gradually spread inland starting along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina from Charleston to Cape Hatteras by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night and then spread southwestward across the rest of the South Carolina coast by Sunday morning and then possibly as far south as Savannah, Georgia during the day on Sunday. Overall, we are not forecasting excessive amounts of rainfall or excessive amounts of wind, but there is expected to be enough of a combination of rain and wind to produce a nasty weekend across the beaches and coast of North Carolina and South Carolina.



winds - the exact track and intensity of this system will dictate how much wind occurs across coastal parts of North and South Carolina. Right now, I would say prepare for wind gusts of 40 or 50 mph at times along the immediate coast of South Carolina and the immediate coast of southeastern and eastern North Carolina, especially from Charleston, South Carolina to Wilmington, North Carolina, from Saturday night through Sunday and into Sunday evening ..
dimer2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2016, 11:25 PM   #4
Master and Commander
 
markpierce's Avatar
 
City: Vallejo CA
Vessel Name: Carquinez Coot
Vessel Model: penultimate Seahorse Marine Coot hull #6
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 12,559
Sounds like "situation normal." Hope the rest of the year makes up for the hurricane season.
__________________
Kar-KEEN-ez Koot
markpierce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2016, 12:18 AM   #5
Guru
 
78puget-trawler's Avatar
 
City: LaConner
Vessel Model: 34' CHB
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,257
If the last few years are any clue, there wont be many full blown hurricanes this year either. They always forecast more than actually occur it seems. Especially since so many have their knickers in a twist about so called global warming.
78puget-trawler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2016, 05:22 AM   #6
FF
Guru
 
FF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 22,553
after being sued for a bad forecast the buro tends to magnify every drop of rain into a deluge.
FF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2016, 05:57 AM   #7
Guru
 
caltexflanc's Avatar
 
City: North Carolina for now
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 6,348
Hurricane season makes up for Hurricane season, beautiful warm clear water, miles upon miles of gorgeous undeveloped beaches, wonderful anchorages and cool places to take your boat. Dealing with the boat is a major PITA when a named storm is coming, but you forget about that quick the other 95% of the time. And, it's never earthquake season.

By the way, storm action around the entire globe has increased, for those of you who choose not to pay attention.
__________________
George

"There's the Right Way, the Wrong Way, and what some guy says he's gotten away with"
caltexflanc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2016, 07:39 AM   #8
Guru
 
City: Satsuma FL
Vessel Name: No Mo Trawla
Vessel Model: Hurricane SS188
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 2,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by menzies View Post
Doesn't time fly.

Since Category 3 Hurricane Wilma roared ashore in South Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, the Sunshine State has gone over 10 years without a single hurricane landfall.

That is true but it still doesn't keep the insurance industry from charging home owners rates as if 2005 is going to occur every year.
Donsan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-30-2016, 05:55 AM   #9
FF
Guru
 
FF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 22,553
"That is true but it still doesn't keep the insurance industry from charging home owners rates as if 2005 is going to occur every year"

I asked USAA why my rates were going up since (thank God!) its been 11 years since a hard blow.

Their response was the FL gov had not allowed the rates to reflect their losses a decade ago, and they were still playing catch up.

Anyone moving to a hurricane zone should get the rulles from their insurance company , Before looking at homes.

A hip roof can be insured for about 1/2 the cost of a gable roof.

There are many rules to know before you purchase.

Even useless FEMA has some ideas for better construction.
FF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-30-2016, 06:52 AM   #10
Guru
 
O C Diver's Avatar
 
City: Fort Myers, FL... Summers in the Great Lakes
Vessel Name: Slow Hand
Vessel Model: Cherubini Independence 45
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 12,818
My home insurance has gone down since 2004. Paying less than I did in 2004. Have the hip roofs, steel reinforced block walls, extra nailed shingles, metal ties from roof to walls, and hurricane rated windows. Guess it was those FEMA guidlines that allowed the insurance companies to classify some home as a significantly lower risk. Currently my premium as a percentage of replacement value is .3%.

Ted
__________________
Blog: mvslowhand.com
I'm tired of fast moves, I've got a slow groove, on my mind.....
I want to spend some time, Not come and go in a heated rush.....
"Slow Hand" by The Pointer Sisters
O C Diver is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-30-2016, 07:09 AM   #11
Guru
 
City: Satsuma FL
Vessel Name: No Mo Trawla
Vessel Model: Hurricane SS188
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 2,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by FF View Post
I asked USAA why my rates were going up since (thank God!) its been 11 years since a hard blow.

Their response was the FL gov had not allowed the rates to reflect their losses a decade ago, and they were still playing catch up.
You fall for that???

BTW, my house was built to the 2006 Miami-Dade Hurricane standards and has a hp roof of tile and cement. Doesn't stop the insurance carpetbaggers.
Donsan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-31-2016, 05:07 AM   #12
FF
Guru
 
FF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 22,553
I consider insurance to be a big con, but a total loss wiuld be hard on the budget.

Should a twister or hurricane eat the house the next will be poured concrete in foam forms with a commercial metal roof , and shutters.

With a bit of effort hurricane insurance would be dirt cheap or not purchased.

Still need insurance tho for a trespasser that steps on a lawn rake , etc.
FF is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


» Trawler Port Captains
Port Captains are TF volunteers who can serve as local guides or assist with local arrangements and information. Search below to locate Port Captains near your destination. To learn more about this program read here: TF Port Captain Program





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:12 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012