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Old 09-27-2016, 01:53 PM   #1
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Hurricane Matthew?

Looks like we can all start speculating where Mathew's going to go...
Half of the models have it going a bit South of Cuba and then taking an abrupt 90deg turn due North.
Most amateurs say they've never seen a model run look like that.

Looks like a week to 10 days away from U.S. right now. Hurricane hunters are flying it now so should have some more details soon.

Scroll down to see two graphics of different models:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...?entrynum=3446

Ugly thing is that usually GFS turns out to be less accurate. Hope that's not the case this time.
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Old 09-27-2016, 02:17 PM   #2
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Its good to be in Panama! We may get some good surfing swell at of it.
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Old 09-30-2016, 11:02 AM   #3
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Well...no longer a TD/TS...
Mathew just went to Major status, ahead of NHC forecasts.
This is turning into a very dangerous and very large storm...
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Old 09-30-2016, 11:20 AM   #4
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Now a Cat 3, with sustained winds at 115 mph. Very dangerous.

Hope all in its way can find some safe harbor.
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Old 09-30-2016, 11:50 AM   #5
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Very strange storm, making forecasts very difficult.
Track really depends on when/where it makes the "turn"...
Track forecasts have changed dramatically over past 4 days...NHC now says Fl could be in play...
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:06 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
Very strange storm, making forecasts very difficult.
Track really depends on when/where it makes the "turn"...
Track forecasts have changed dramatically over past 4 days...NHC now says Fl could be in play...
Lobstah,

Seems like FL was always a possibility, being so far out. But don't see where they've change their mind about the most probably path, and FL is more at risk. Did I miss that?
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:28 PM   #7
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Perhaps...
Not sure which models/sites you use, but for instance, GFS was indicating a track further East, and EMCEF was West of GFS. Those tracks have now moved further West, as has the projected turning point, increasing odds for Florida to be in play.
On Dr. Master's 11am update, he mentioned this change in model runs, and stated that Florida may be in play, and I believe that his first mention of this in the past few days.

Mark Sudduth on Hurricanetrack.com said yesterday morning that there was no way this storm would enter the GOM, then on his 11pm youtube update, changed his opinion: https://youtu.be/3TvLzMNgV1Y


So I guess IMHO, the chances have increased, and more so over the past 12-24hrs.

A model that not many talk about presents a pretty scary run for FL residents here:
GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool


I think there's a fairly high pucker-factor associated with that model.

With any luck, Mathew will shrug, and head ENE out into the Northern Atlantic. But it's looking like that may require a LOT of luck.
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:34 PM   #8
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Link doesn't work for me?

RB

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
A model that not many talk about presents a pretty scary run for FL residents here:
GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:42 PM   #9
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Link doesn't work for me?

RB
Hmmm...that's odd. Try this?


GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool

or this?

GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:46 PM   #10
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Sorry folks.
Try this link. Once there, click on the map, then click "animate".

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/

interesting frames are up around Frame 54 and forward...
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:09 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
Sorry folks.
Try this link. Once there, click on the map, then click "animate".

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/

interesting frames are up around Frame 54 and forward...
Yeah, that one works just fine. Not that I like the scenario, though, living in Florida . . .
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:10 PM   #12
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I guess one of the problems with a storm this size is there's no where to run if you're on the East coast...
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:16 PM   #13
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Thank you for the new link!

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Old 09-30-2016, 01:17 PM   #14
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Yeah, that one works just fine. Not that I like the scenario, though, living in Florida . . .
Was up in St. Marks a month ago...stayed at the Fish Camp on my way to Tallahassee. Great place.

Room for a 48' trawler up there?
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:25 PM   #15
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Thank you for the new link!

RB
Btw...if you go back to that link make sure to look at the "Forecast initial time" and hit the drop down to make sure you're looking at the latest run. New runs are posted roughly every 12hrs.

That is a very scary model to watch tho, and it is VERY DIFFERENT than what other models are calling for...can't stress that enough.

VERY DIFFERENT, VERY DIFFERENT, VERY DIFFERENT...
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:39 PM   #16
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Was up in St. Marks a month ago...stayed at the Fish Camp on my way to Tallahassee. Great place.

Room for a 48' trawler up there?
Um, I don't really think that any of the slips at Shields Marina (where I am) would easily accommodate a 48-footer. I'm in one of the larger slips, and my 36-footer takes up most of the length. Plenty of beam room, but the slips are just not long enough for a large boat. IMO.

Not that you would not be welcome, of course.
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Old 09-30-2016, 01:40 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
I guess one of the problems with a storm this size is there's no where to run if you're on the East coast...
My worry right now has to do with that track moving further Westward . . .
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Old 09-30-2016, 02:02 PM   #18
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The good news for Florida it is south of Cuba.....bad news for Cuba.....often the mountains knock a good bit out of it as long as it doesn't slow and reintensify.

Anyone know if Capt. BILL is still in Cuba?
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Old 09-30-2016, 02:05 PM   #19
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Lobstah,

Thanks to the link, good one, and didn't know Dr. Mathews on Wunderground had a blog, also good.

I've been using the NHC, and Mark's Hurricane Track for info., but the last one I got from him was at 1am.

Looks like us Floridians need to pay attention.
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Old 09-30-2016, 02:36 PM   #20
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Passageweather has it scary close to NC on thurs. No likey.
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