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Old 10-04-2016, 03:04 PM   #161
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Pretty glad that at least our friends didn't pick that cruise.
Still unsure about what what will happen with ours, Carnival's next update is 8pm. Seems like they'll go, but we'll see.
Yours will go on as scheduled. They're not about to cancel it. Now, I don't know where yours is scheduled to go. If one of their islands in the Bahamas it might not be in condition to go there. But they'll take you somewhere.
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Old 10-04-2016, 03:10 PM   #162
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Yours will go on as scheduled. They're not about to cancel it. Now, I don't know where yours is scheduled to go. If one of their islands in the Bahamas it might not be in condition to go there. But they'll take you somewhere.
We're headed for Cozumel, so no worries down there.
I think the only thing they're probably looking at is the ability to get out of Tampa Bay under the Skyline Bridge. I think it would take a bit more than TS force winds to hamper that, but no ones quite sure yet what we'll have over here on the left coast by Thurs evening.
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Old 10-04-2016, 03:15 PM   #163
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Mark...Just passed your name to my Mooring contact. The upper Pamlico is pretty protected and you'll have the benefit of the Washington Waterfont ammenities, Restaurants etc. I just made my reservation. Maybe I'll see you up the river this weekend.. PM details should be in your inbox..

Looks like this thing is gonna come right over us unless a radical track change happens..
Great! I just made my reservation.
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Old 10-04-2016, 03:32 PM   #164
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We're headed for Cozumel, so no worries down there.
I think the only thing they're probably looking at is the ability to get out of Tampa Bay under the Skyline Bridge. I think it would take a bit more than TS force winds to hamper that, but no ones quite sure yet what we'll have over here on the left coast by Thurs evening.
Which vessel are you on? Carnival Paradise does the Tampa to Cozumel run. They have a bridge draft of 115' 6". Sunshine Skyway bridge clearance is 174'.

You have 59 ft of tide and storm surge to worry about. I seriously doubt they're worrying about bridge clearance issues.
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Old 10-04-2016, 03:55 PM   #165
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Not worried about height, but if you were aware of what took out the first Skyline Bridge, you could see them exercising caution in a high-wind environment.
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Old 10-04-2016, 03:56 PM   #166
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Which vessel are you on? Carnival Paradise does the Tampa to Cozumel run. They have a bridge draft of 115' 6". Sunshine Skyway bridge clearance is 174'.

You have 59 ft of tide and storm surge to worry about. I seriously doubt they're worrying about bridge clearance issues.
Wifey B: If there is 59 ft of surge, he has a lot more that bridge clearance to worry about. Can anyone say, "Noah?"
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:11 PM   #167
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Interestingly, right now, the Ensemble and NHC models as well as the computer models all tend to show Matthew proceeding up off the coast and not make landfall until SC/NC, making it there at a reduced wind speed. However, there is one exception. Historically the most accurate forecast has been the European Model. It is on the far west part of all the ensemble paths. It shows the storm making landfall in central to northern FL while still a CAT 3 or CAT 4. If this happened there would be a lot of damage in that area of FL and southern GA. It could actually mean less damage in SC and NC as the time over land would likely weaken it. If this was any other forecast, it would be quickly labeled as an outlier. Because it's the European model, most web sites and television forecasts are giving it more consideration than all the other models.
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:13 PM   #168
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:27 PM   #169
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59 ft of surge must be a misprint.
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Old 10-04-2016, 04:34 PM   #170
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Wifey B: If there is 59 ft of surge, he has a lot more that bridge clearance to worry about. Can anyone say, "Noah?"

Keep on the look out for animals lining up two by two...
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:16 PM   #171
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Since the governor's announcement at 3PM today, panic is rearing it's ugly head. Gas lines are already around the block. Roads are at a crawl. Of course marina is full. Looking at the newer weather models, should be an interesting weekend for sure.
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:23 PM   #172
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The NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division model is still keeping Matthew offshore with landfall at Wilmington. I've found their track predictions to be pretty reliable over the years. Not sure what their modelling methodology is, but it seems to work well.

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Old 10-04-2016, 05:43 PM   #173
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The extreme angle at which Matthew is approaching the South Carolina coast makes the predicted path very questionable to me. I'm not a mathematician, but how many degrees would it have to deviate from it's current position (different heading/late turns/early turns) to throw this path out the window? Put another way, it's forecast to miss Charleston by about 35 miles after making some complex turns. It seems like any deviation from its predicted path down near Cuba would result in exponential "downstream" changes by the time it gets to the eastern seaboard.

Or maybe this is all my wishful thinking. We just spent two weeks at Kiawah Island, SC and I hate to think of another Hugo hitting that lovely area.
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Old 10-04-2016, 05:56 PM   #174
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The extreme angle at which Matthew is approaching the South Carolina coast makes the predicted path very questionable to me. I'm not a mathematician, but how many degrees would it have to deviate from it's current position (different heading/late turns/early turns) to throw this path out the window? Put another way, it's forecast to miss Charleston by about 35 miles after making some complex turns. It seems like any deviation from its predicted path down near Cuba would result in exponential "downstream" changes by the time it gets to the eastern seaboard.

Or maybe this is all my wishful thinking. We just spent two weeks at Kiawah Island, SC and I hate to think of another Hugo hitting that lovely area.
Nope...good point.

Just like navigation, a few degrees makes all the difference over time.

That's one thing that makes weather forecasting a tough job all the time...just a matter of degrees....temp and direction.
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Old 10-04-2016, 06:16 PM   #175
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Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
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Old 10-04-2016, 06:48 PM   #176
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You have to wonder what Nicole entering the picture will mean . . . curiouser and curiouser as they say . . .
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:09 PM   #177
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About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:17 PM   #178
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About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive.
Meaning, I suppose, that they were going pretty fast, and perhaps more wake than one would really like? I have noticed over the years that both the CG and the Marine Patrol (in Florida) tend to do that. Oh well.
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:21 PM   #179
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One of the biggest problems, as I'm sure everyone has noticed, is that this storm has been incredibly difficult to forecast. Models are all over the place. Models that usually are not close, are turning out to be much closer than "old reliables".
In the week+ that I've been watching this storm, it appears to me that the NCH forecasts have been playing catch-up the entire time. Other models, that historically have been poo-pooed have turned out to be much more accurate, at least so far.
A week ago, NHC was calling for OTS, and anything that came close to Florida was laughed at. Now?...people are vehemently arguing over whether the storm makes landfall in Port St. Lucy, or JAX, or pick you spot.
Bottom line, and my takeaway is that NOBODY knew where this storm was going. We all look at the models, and we asses risk based on those models. When a few models call for a track that's further west, and then a few more models start agreeing with those, you've got to believe that something's up.
These are called models for a reason. And one thing you can be sure of, is the old GIGO....Garbage In...Garbage Out. So when conditions are normal?...then the models perform fairly well. When the conditions are ABnormal, which they clearly are in this case?...then all bets are off, and you have to watch it like a hawk.
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:32 PM   #180
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I was under the impression, 5 days was the reason able amount of time for any weather model...past that and probabilities of error skyrocket.

For daily westher, it is often as low as 3 days in my experience.
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