Hurricane Matthew?

[BandB]

Well this is really starting to look like number four for me. Grace is still out in Ocracoke and that looks to be about the worst place you can be. I'm heading back to the boat tomorrow and try to make a bumpy run across the Pamlico Sound on Wed to try and find a hiding spot either in Adams Creek or further up toward New Bern. There just aren't any good places to hide in Eastern NC for this one.

Hopefully if it gets as far as you, it will be down to CAT 2 by then.

 

[Besslb]

Well this is really starting to look like number four for me. Grace is still out in Ocracoke and that looks to be about the worst place you can be. I'm heading back to the boat tomorrow and try to make a bumpy run across the Pamlico Sound on Wed to try and find a hiding spot either in Adams Creek or further up toward New Bern. There just aren't any good places to hide in Eastern NC for this one.

Mark, either River Dunes, or come on up to Northwest Creek. Call Paul or Dawn......we have slips next to us that should be available. NWC is a hurricane hole. Or Jarrett bay to haul out. We'll be down on Thursday for final prepping.

 

[Daddyo]

Mark....the Hurricane Kid!....you must be a glutten for punishment. This time, get us a selfie of you holding on to the pulpit rail while spitting Mathew's eye right in the eye! You do still have that storm anchor, don't you?

Trust me I'm not liking this one. The protection in NC sucks. If I can get to the Trent River in New Bern I would be golden. Winds for my "ride" on the Pamlico will be 20mph give or take so it won't be a pleasant day on Wed. I'll be spending my birthday on Thursday alone staring at weather maps

 

[Daddyo]

Mark, either River Dunes, or come on up to Northwest Creek. Call Paul or Dawn......we have slips next to us that should be available. NWC is a hurricane hole. Or Jarrett bay to haul out. We'll be down on Thursday for final prepping.

I hadn't really thought about River Dunes as I hate hard objects when the wind freshens but it's so protected in there that might be a real choice. I don't even know where NWC is. I need to take a look again at the charts.

 

[BandB]

The ensemble continues to skew further west. Almost all the tracks either hit land early or just follow the coast line, just off shore, all the way up. Also, has picked 5 mph back up to 145 mph. All can change, but during the course of today, the outlook has worsened considerably.

 

[SCOTTEDAVIS]

The ensemble continues to skew further west. Almost all the tracks either hit land early or just follow the coast line, just off shore, all the way up. Also, has picked 5 mph back up to 145 mph. All can change, but during the course of today, the outlook has worsened considerably.

Indeed!

 

[Lobstah]

Very slight shift East before going through the pass between Jamaica and Haiti.
WAY too early to read anything into that, but anything moving East at this point is a bit of good news for SE US.
Next HH flight leaves in an hour or so...but looking at sat images, that's a really strong and well defined eye. Folks are calling Cat 5, waiting for HH run to confirm.

And what can you say about Haiti?...they were still screwed from the earthquake before this. I can't imagine it.

 

[sdowney717]

It looks to affect the much of our southeast coast.
I have a window out, working on it, I will have it back in today.

I expect for our Hampton area, mid level winds and lots of rain, no direct hit.

 

[Lobstah]

Storm surge warning in the latest NWS-Miami update:
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

15' surge, in the Bahamas? That'll leave a mark.

 

[sdowney717]

So do you loosen your lines, I do.
I run fore and aft spring lines anyway.
I loosen the lines that are cross tied at the stern.
I use 3/4 " 3 strand nylon all the time.

Last Hurricane we had an 8 foot surge, and where I plug in the power the post was under water, so about 3 feet above the parking lot pavement. I park right next to the boat, so about a 10 foot walk to get on the boat.

 

[Lobstah]

Here's an site that's interesting...I'm just beginning to explore it, but it provides live data from the hurricane hunters:
Live Recon in the Atlantic Basin - Tropical Atlantic

Pretty amazing that today's technology allows you to sit anywhere in the world and watch radar images live, from a plane that's flying through the eye of a hurricane.

 

[Lobstah]

"I park right next to the boat, so about a 10 foot walk to get on the boat."
or swim to the boat, as the case may be?

Hope this heads OTS before it gets that far North.

 

[psneeld]

Daddyo, the Dismal Swamp is considered a good hurricane hole.

 

[sdowney717]

"I park right next to the boat, so about a 10 foot walk to get on the boat."
or swim to the boat, as the case may be?

Hope this heads OTS before it gets that far North.

Imagine standing there and your boat is floating 8 feet higher than normal.
That is a lot of water coming in. I think this surge will be not more than a few feet for us.

Hurricane Isabel, I was at another marina in the York River near the Coleman bridge, and stood there far off up the hill watching the boat rise (seemed like)3 feet in an hour and the lines getting taught looking.

2 days afterwards, I drove out there, and there was this big rusty steel hook had grabbed the bow rail, heeling the boat over. I pried the boat off, glad I did as tides were still much higher.

Boat survived ok. Some boats in the sheds got damaged when they floated up.

 

[boatpoker]

think I'll stay up here at the top of the Chesapeake for while.
Might head over to Weems Creek near Annapolis today, anyone know if there is space in that anchorage right now ?

 

[sdowney717]

Isabel entered Virginia as a Cat 1 storm.

Strong winds from the hurricane affected 99 counties and cities in the state,[1][2] which downed thousands of trees and left about 1.8 million without power. The storm surge impacted much of the southeastern portion of the state, peaking at around 9 feet (2.7 m) in Richmond along the James River; the surge caused significant damage to homes along riverways.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Virginia

 

[Lobstah]

I know this sounds silly, but among the long list of preparations that we all go through, whether it be boats, homes, or RVs, one thing I added to my list was checking my insurances were all current. About 2yrs ago, my motor home had been parked for 6mos, and I called the insurance company to ask them a question about something totally unrelated, and they informed me that my policy had "lapsed".
Took a few days to straighten it out, and it had NOT lapsed, but all the same, had anything happened during that time, it would have increased the butt-ache factor significantly.

 

[cappy208]

Just took boat to Fairhaven snug in behind Hurricane Barrier for early haulout. Now off to big boat and thrash on east coast awaiting Matthews arrival. Matthews gonna liven things up in New England I fear.

Stay safe in your hurricane holes (wherever they may be).

 

[McGillicuddy]

And what can you say about Haiti?...they were still screwed from the earthquake before this. I can't imagine it.

If ever there was a Hell on Earth it is Western Haiti right now. Pray for those poor people.


Sent from my iPad using Trawler Forum

 

[Daddyo]

Daddyo, the Dismal Swamp is considered a good hurricane hole.

I would agree accept for flying debris being my biggest concern. Also I just don't have enough time to make it that far north.

 

[FootballFan]

Haiti is heartbreaking.


Saw images on the network news last night. Discussion was people were worried about evacuating, losing what little they had. Really puts our blessed lives in perspective.


Mark

 

[jwnall]

Daddyo, the Dismal Swamp is considered a good hurricane hole.

We had imminent warning of a hurricane when we were cruising on the sailboat in that area, back in around 1998. We were trying to figure out where to go when several other boats came past us, and one of them stopped to talk to us since we were obviously strangers in the hood. He said that they were headed for the first lock up north of Elizabeth City, and that they would close the lock at both ends during the storm and let boats stay in there. So we followed them in there, and sure enough. Stretched lines to either side of the lock and kept the boat pretty much in the middle, and rode it out with very little damage. (During the height of the storm we heeled over far enough to do some slight damage, but nothing which could not be fixed with some fiberglass).

 

[Daddyo]

Mark, either River Dunes, or come on up to Northwest Creek. Call Paul or Dawn......we have slips next to us that should be available. NWC is a hurricane hole. Or Jarrett bay to haul out. We'll be down on Thursday for final prepping.

NWC said they don't allow boats in for hurricane shelter plus Grace is too big for them. Jarrett Bay charges a $15 per foot contract at the beginning of the season and then $9 per ft to haul each time. For example a haul in Deltaville is $6.50 a foot vs $24!! Oh and they're full. River Dunes is on a waiting list and a five day minimum is required. Looks like the Trent River might be the only choice.

 

[Daddyo]

We had imminent warning of a hurricane when we were cruising on the sailboat in that area, back in around 1998. We were trying to figure out where to go when several other boats came past us, and one of them stopped to talk to us since we were obviously strangers in the hood. He said that they were headed for the first lock up north of Elizabeth City, and that they would close the lock at both ends during the storm and let boats stay in there. So we followed them in there, and sure enough. Stretched lines to either side of the lock and kept the boat pretty much in the middle, and rode it out with very little damage. (During the height of the storm we heeled over far enough to do some slight damage, but nothing which could not be fixed with some fiberglass).

The risk you take with that is the lock can remain closed due to flooding or lock damage and might keep you there much, much longer than expected. Debris is still a big problem if you're right at the shore like that.

 

[Bigsfish]

As the storm moves further west I am rethinking my plans, tomorrow will be decision day and if need be ill double the lines, take off the covers, add fenders, put up the antennas and hope for the best. The Miami River is fairly well protected from wind and I'm far enough up not to worry about the surge. My biggest concern are other boats not being secured.

Of course, I could go out and anchor in the bay to test the Boss anchor. LOL

 

[BandB]

For countries like Haiti, everything adds up. They're still suffering from a cholera outbreak which came after an earthquake. Now sending people to shelters as well as flooding is all likely to increase the cholera issue.

Seeing devastation like that really makes any fear we have of the storm seem so minor in comparison.

As the cone shifted slightly, our home is now 15 miles out of the cone. So, we have a tropical storm watch and those 15 miles north of us have a hurricane watch. However we have businesses, not so important, with employees, very important, in the hurricane warning area.

i find it difficult to take any solace in the fact it's not likely to hit us directly, when it is hitting and will continue to hit other areas directly.

For the southern areas of the Bahamas, it's expected to have much the same effect Joaquin had a year ago. That's going to be very difficult on people who have spent the last year rebuilding.

 

[angus99]

think I'll stay up here at the top of the Chesapeake for while.
Might head over to Weems Creek near Annapolis today, anyone know if there is space in that anchorage right now ?

Wallace, Worton Creek had some transient spots when I was there Sunday. It's well-protected, especially from the east. If you end up there, let me know; like to shake hands.

Ian (angus99)

 

[Heron]

Looks like, based on current tracks, this is gonna come right over us at the head of the Pamlico. There is a small mooring field off my docks in Washington NC. I'm about to make arrangements to go out on a ball. At $10 a day this looks like a no brainer. Just serviced, rated for 50 ft in 100 mph winds. Should be OK. A little leery of staying at the docks, even though pretty well protected. Decision point tomorrow...

 

[yachtbrokerguy]

I have hired a deckhand to come to some of my listings here at the shipyard in Fort Lauderdale and remove the Bimini tops. He will be paid $25 per hour with an estimate cost of $50 to $100 per Bimini to take down and put back up. How could you get any canvas repair for that amount of money?
The shipyard is five miles up river from the ocean and is already full.

 

[BandB]

This is a special weather statement on Carnival Cruise Line's website, changing the itinerary of a cruise that left Jacksonville at 4pm today:

Carnival Elation – 10/3/16 departure
We will need to cancel our calls in Half Moon Cay and Nassau and replace them with a visit to Key West and Freeport. Please find the new itinerary below.

Day Port Arrival Departure
Mon Jacksonville, FL 4:00PM
Tue Fun Day @ Sea
Wed Key West 8:00AM 8:00PM
Thu Fun Day @ Sea
Fri Freeport, The Bahamas 7:00AM 2:00PM
Sat Jacksonville, FL 7:00AM


So Thursday, they'll be going from Key West East over to the Bahamas?
That's the exact time that Mathew is supposed to hit the Bahamas as a Cat4/Cat5 storm.

That "Fun Day at Sea" on Thursday might be really something.

As an update, Freeport now is under the same hurricane warning as Nassau.

Prediction, the Fun Day will be very near Key West. Current forecasts off the coast around Fort Lauderdale are seas of 9 to 11' with occasional 14' for Thursday and Gulf Stream is 14-17' with occasional 20'. The Gulf Stream in the area toward Freeport is in excess of 20' with occasional 28'. This assumes winds of 40-50 knots and gusts of 60 knots.

Now if the storm moved east, then the winds would be double that, actually if in a CAT 3 hurricane. The good news for Carnival is that Friday looks good in South Florida and the storm would probably hit the Jacksonville area around 8 am on Friday so they should be able to cruise Friday night and be back to Jacksonville as planned on Saturday morning.

I think we can safely assume now that the cruise ship will not visit the Bahamas on this trip. Rename it the "Key West Cruise".