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Old 10-03-2016, 01:34 PM   #81
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Here are some posts with the near "real-time" analysis I spoke of earlier, from within the past 30mins:

"ALL 20 GFS ensembles shifted west just off the coast or make landfall in Florida and up to the SC and N. Carolina coast, Major impacts even if off shore."

Quote from NHC Director:
"Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector ∑ 1h1 hour ago

Dr. Rick Knabb Retweeted Josh Bassan

Some #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles, not all shown on TV, show possibility of Florida hurricane impacts

Dr. Rick Knabb"

"
Just about all of the 12Z GEFS are coming into FL now. WOW!!!"

So most of this info you'd never see from NHC. That doesn't mean they don't have value.
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:51 PM   #82
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"Folks..Navy Model now has Matthew INLAND southern Florida....stay alert and ready folks.............."

This model is called NAVGEM, it's available on Levi's tropicaltidbits page:
Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

I really hope that's an outlier, and does not come to fruition, however...this IS the Navy, and I believe they've come to learn a few things about weather and storms.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:01 PM   #83
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Well...I'm not sure what to tell you, you seem to think I'm making all of this up?

Here's a forecast map from NHC. This "cone" has shifted considerably West over the past 24hrs.
When I look at this, Miami is seems to be within the cone of probability. Is it 20%?...30%??...don't know, and really don't care. The point is just that I think folks in FL/GA/SC/NC need to be aware that the forecasts on this, especially the track, are very dynamic.
Hurricane MATTHEW
No, I just caution about implications that it's a the preponderant theory at this point and the statement you didn't agree with either saying ALL members. I agree everyone seems to be aware even if it doesn't make land in the US. Right now, I think the odds are very bad for the Bahamas and better for some areas on the coast. South Florida isn't in the NOAA cone now even. Notice Miami outside it. Still, living in Fort Lauderdale (or if I was in Miami), I'm not making any assumptions that anyone knows what it will do. As long as it's alive and south of us, I'll follow it closely.

Interestingly, the current projected path is right in line with the vast majority of October 3, 4 and 5's that originated where it did. One went to LA and the others have primarily made US landfall in the SC/NC area. Another thing is that they've been 4's leading up to landfall and strong 3's when they've hit. Also, they've remained hurricanes (CAT 1) all the way through Lake Ontario.

One person says the consensus has moved east and another says west. Either way the accuracy of forecasts 4 and 5 days out is not good. It's definitely a major storm to follow closely.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:07 PM   #84
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"Folks..Navy Model now has Matthew INLAND southern Florida....stay alert and ready folks.............."

This model is called NAVGEM, it's available on Levi's tropicaltidbits page:
Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

I really hope that's an outlier, and does not come to fruition, however...this IS the Navy, and I believe they've come to learn a few things about weather and storms.
I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:13 PM   #85
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The keys

Winds here in the keys are expected to be 20-35 mph with higher gust Tuesday nite thru Friday morning. Got a mooring in boot key if it turns towards Florida and have secured boat and property here at harbour Cay club. Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:26 PM   #86
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I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
It's probably not carrying the link correctly.

Go to the main page at tropicaltidbits.com and on the top bar, click on forecast models.
Then click on the Global drop down, and select NAVGEM, then hit Play.
Actually takes the eye up pretty close to Atlanta?
Has to be way out to lunch...but still pretty scary to watch.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:27 PM   #87
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Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
I'm scared of the loss of lives that could occur in Haiti. The monetary loss there won't sound like much in the US but lives are far more important than dollars. Also, getting reports from Haiti may be very delayed. I hope they are better prepared than I believe they are.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:27 PM   #88
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Winds here in the keys are expected to be 20-35 mph with higher gust Tuesday nite thru Friday morning. Got a mooring in boot key if it turns towards Florida and have secured boat and property here at harbour Cay club. Hope it goes out to sea after Haiti but that is unlikely,. Hope for the best and pray for those in its path.
I think (hope?) that you're far enough South to miss the impact, no matter what it does.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:28 PM   #89
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I'm missing something going to that link. Please help. What it takes me to is a prediction of precipitation. What then to get to the hurricane forecast? I'm just missing where it shows Matthew inland in southern FL. Perhaps I just don't know where to find it on that page.
If you use the top arrow buttons it walks it through in 6 hr increments. After the first few, the storm comes into view then tracks pretty much through the middle of FLA.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:30 PM   #90
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I'm scared of the loss of lives that could occur in Haiti. The monetary loss there won't sound like much in the US but lives are far more important than dollars. Also, getting reports from Haiti may be very delayed. I hope they are better prepared than I believe they are.
One of the bloggers posted about conditions there post-earthquake, and said that there are large parts of some population centers that are still living in tents.

160mph, in a TENT, w/up to 40" of rain? Could be a disaster of never-before-seen proportions down there.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:36 PM   #91
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If you use the top arrow buttons it walks it through in 6 hr increments. After the first few, the storm comes into view then tracks pretty much through the middle of FLA.
I don't see any other hurricane tracking system or predictor showing it coming up South Florida like that. Doesn't mean the others are right.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:55 PM   #92
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I don't see any other hurricane tracking system or predictor showing it coming up South Florida like that. Doesn't mean the others are right.
Neither do I, which is very good news. I am a bit concerned that the Navy would produce something like that?...that part is worriesome.

Someone just posted that Gov Scott declared a state of emergency, but I haven't seen that anywhere yet.
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:03 PM   #93
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Watching this thread very closely, learning a lot from you folks.


Generic google searches found some discussions about the "blob" to the east of the main storm. Have read about convection currents causing this. I don't recall typically seeing this type of formation.


Is this pretty normal? Have you seen this occurrence before?


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Old 10-03-2016, 04:07 PM   #94
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From what I've gathered, the "blob" is not usual at all, and has caused a lot of speculation about it's impact on the storm itself.
For awhile it looked almost like it was going to form another eye. Early this morning radar images shows what was best described as a bomb going off between the blob and the eye, and it really did look like something just exploded between the two.
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:18 PM   #95
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Neither do I, which is very good news. I am a bit concerned that the Navy would produce something like that?...that part is worriesome.

Someone just posted that Gov Scott declared a state of emergency, but I haven't seen that anywhere yet.
Yes, from the Sun Sentinel:

Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency in Florida. His announcement read in part: "Hurricane Matthew is a life-threatening category four hurricane and we must all take it seriously. If Hurricane Matthew directly impacts Florida, there could be massive destruction which we havenít seen since Hurricane Andrew devastated Miami-Dade County in 1992. That is why we cannot delay and must prepare for direct impact now."

South Florida remains just outside the forecast cone showing the likely path of the storm's center, according to the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

WHAT FLORIDA CAN EXPECT: The hurricane center said it's too soon to tell the impact on South Florida. The National Weather Service says the risk that South Florida will experience hurricane-force winds stands at less than 5 percent.
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:28 PM   #96
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Scott isn't the only governor to issue State of Emergency order. McCrory has for 66 counties in NC.
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:48 PM   #97
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I just saw that you can go to Nasatv and view the ISS pass over Mathew. Quite the sight...
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:53 PM   #98
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This is a special weather statement on Carnival Cruise Line's website, changing the itinerary of a cruise that left Jacksonville at 4pm today:

Carnival Elation – 10/3/16 departure
We will need to cancel our calls in Half Moon Cay and Nassau and replace them with a visit to Key West and Freeport. Please find the new itinerary below.

Day Port Arrival Departure
Mon Jacksonville, FL 4:00PM
Tue Fun Day @ Sea
Wed Key West 8:00AM 8:00PM
Thu Fun Day @ Sea
Fri Freeport, The Bahamas 7:00AM 2:00PM
Sat Jacksonville, FL 7:00AM


So Thursday, they'll be going from Key West East over to the Bahamas?
That's the exact time that Mathew is supposed to hit the Bahamas as a Cat4/Cat5 storm.

That "Fun Day at Sea" on Thursday might be really something.
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:09 PM   #99
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That "Fun Day at Sea" on Thursday might be really something.
Indeed.
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:17 PM   #100
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