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Old 09-30-2016, 02:40 PM   #21
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That "mountains of Cuba often knock a good bit out" is logical and conventional wisdom, but as a 60 year native of Florida that's a big maybe. I have seen storms come right over the most mountainous parts of Cuba and not even blink.

If you're on the Mid to Southern East Coast of Florida Stuart is the place to be. Only place you can move North, South or West to get out of the path of a storm.

Proximity to a hurricane is a big deal when it comes to intensity. If you can get 50 or 100 miles away it changes from a major event to nothing more than a rain event.




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Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
The good news for Florida it is south of Cuba.....bad news for Cuba.....often the mountains knock a good bit out of it as long as it doesn't slow and reintensify.

Anyone know if Capt. BILL is still in Cuba?
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Old 09-30-2016, 03:12 PM   #22
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One computer model has it heading to sea and missing the SE US. Three have it possibly hitting NC. One has it getting the top half or so of the east coast of FL.

Of the dozen or so ensemble models, the majority have it either heading out to sea or hitting the US anywhere from northern Florida to Maine.

The NHC track forecasts have an error of about 175 miles on day 4 and 230 miles at day 5 so still very much unknown.

The current forecasts have it's maximum winds at any point only at 115 mph, so Category 2 to Category 3.

Right now the projected target is Jamaica Sunday night into Monday morning as a Category 3.
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:18 PM   #23
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Quote:
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One computer model has it heading to sea and missing the SE US. Three have it possibly hitting NC. One has it getting the top half or so of the east coast of FL.

Of the dozen or so ensemble models, the majority have it either heading out to sea or hitting the US anywhere from northern Florida to Maine.

The NHC track forecasts have an error of about 175 miles on day 4 and 230 miles at day 5 so still very much unknown.

The current forecasts have it's maximum winds at any point only at 115 mph, so Category 2 to Category 3.

Right now the projected target is Jamaica Sunday night into Monday morning as a Category 3.
Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:24 PM   #24
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Btw...just looked at the latest GFS run on Levi's page (tropicaltidbits.com great place to play with models!).
Latest GFS run has this skirting outerbanks, heading NNE, and then make a major turn back NNW, and making landfall on the coast of Maine.

Unreal.

See if this gets you there...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy...pos=0&ypos=200

960mb when it hits?
Lotta folks in SouthWest Harbor are hoping THAT'S wrong...could be a pile of Hinkley's up there.
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:30 PM   #25
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One of the 'cane hunters, Miss Piggy, is making another run.
This is really shaping up to be a historic storm.

Jamaica was bracing for a Cat1, maybe Cat 2...nothing like this.
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:45 PM   #26
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Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."
I don't know how the updates are done or based on what, but the latest I see on the sites I have examined is 120 mph and CAT 3. Now, I'm not betting on or against anything happening. I'm pretty confident in it's direction through early Monday morning and that's the limit of my confidence.
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:51 PM   #27
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I am still trying to figure out why this storm is so different?
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Old 09-30-2016, 04:51 PM   #28
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Passageweather has it scary close to NC on thurs. No likey.
Yeah...watching closely...
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:26 PM   #29
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:46 PM   #30
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Not good for someone.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:46 PM   #31
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Quote:
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I am still trying to figure out why this storm is so different?
For a few different reasons.

1) Dramatic shift in the storm track in a very short period of time.
2) Dramatic RI (rapid intensification). People who have been watching these for years have never seen a storm go from a tropical depression to a Cat 4 Hurricane in less than 48hrs.

As for where the updates come from...one major source is live feeds from the hurricane hunters, speaking of which, another one is now wheels-up at MacDill AFB, AF303 Mission #9 into MATTHEW wheels up.
This allows folks that are really set up for it to monitor live data from the datasondes as they're being dropped.
That's why people know there are Cat 4 winds in the storm before there are official updates via NHC.

Also, the NHC itself says that intensity forecasts are very poor, while track forecasts have improved over the past 10-20yrs.
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Old 09-30-2016, 06:04 PM   #32
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Yes rapid intensification has been a major indicator of bad storms. they also say it is tough to predict...yet I thought on this one, they saw it coming.

Also, they see a possible weakening over the next several days...how does that fit into the overall scheme? While I have followed weather and hurricanes to keep boats and USCG assets out of harms way...it isn't a hobby of mine.

They are predicting a slight weakening going over the mountainous land masses. Not sure how that also fits the pattern of RI.
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Old 09-30-2016, 06:09 PM   #33
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https://www.windyty.com/?2016-10-03-21,59.474,-65.728,4
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Old 09-30-2016, 06:50 PM   #34
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NHC has predicted weakening several times now, but each time has been a "miss".
As I mentioned, tough time predicting anything with a storm that's gone from a TD, to TS, to Hurricane Cat 1, and now showing Cat 4 winds, in less than 48hrs.

Clearly something that might be outside the bounds of what models were built to contend with.
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Old 09-30-2016, 06:55 PM   #35
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Levi, at Tropical Tidbits, is a meteorology student at FSU, and maintains an excellent blog which includes video analysis.
I'd encourage folks to go to his site and listen to his latest video, just posted.
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Old 09-30-2016, 07:17 PM   #36
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www.hurricanetrack.com has a new analysis up as of 5pm that does a credible job of explaining or pointing out some of the various models and their tracks.
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Old 09-30-2016, 07:21 PM   #37
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time will tell...always nice to be prepared...but not over react.
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Old 09-30-2016, 07:23 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."

Lobstah,

162 mph is over a cat 4 hurricane, and like an F3 tornado, only ~60 miles across. That's unbelievable, and the damage would be worse than Andrew.
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Old 09-30-2016, 08:04 PM   #39
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this is big monster, we was lucky in ST Barth Matthew was no hurricane and pass real south when he was here, but I can tell you I want looking every 3 hours and still looking to see if he not coming back on us...

This one, where he's going (disadvantaged country) he's going to kill lot of people, prepare humanitarian aid there going to need it.

we living all year long onboard since 10 years , I'm really tired of hurricane season, if one day we going back on shore that only for that reason.

Hugues
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Old 09-30-2016, 08:14 PM   #40
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Greetings,
Mr. H. "...we going back on shore that only for that reason." OR move south of 10 degrees latitude for the season...
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