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Old 10-06-2016, 08:32 PM   #301
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There will always be people that wait too long. Never understood why, other than there's a huge tendancy for people to not believe they're responsible for themselves.
Waiting until now to pull the trigger and head west is...well, pure lunacy.
You should have been heading west 2 days ago, regardless of what TWC and NHC said.
As I have said to others, what's the UPSIDE to staying where you are?...there is none.
Part of this problem is related to liability and lawyers. Maybe a big part. If you tell me that I have to evacuate, and it turns out there's no need, you owe me for hotel, lost work/whatever. So many people want someone else to be responsible.

Anyway, nothing to do now but count the damage in 2 days.

We passed under the Skyway Bridge about 1.5hrs ago. A bit rocky out there, beam seas, but nothing too bad, and the Paradise is a fairly small ship. I expect things will get more rolly as we pass the tip of Fl, but my thoughts go out to those of you along the coast. This is going to be bad or worse, no good to be found.
Stay safe...double up those lines...
The upside is what you have been preaching all along, the forecasts are so unoredictsble...why prepare and leave until you know its time?

Sure you have to have more ducks in a row....but for every hurricane I was initially concerned about....I have only really had to do anything for maybe 1 in 10. That's living and boating in the Miami, Pensacola/Mobile, and NJ areas.

I learned to wait till I had to pull the trigger, then take the necessary steps to prevent damage or injury.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:51 PM   #302
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Stay safe

Hoping all you Florida boaters hunkering down for the storm stay safe. I really dread seeing a bunch of once beautiful boats sitting in or on something other than the water they belong in, even worse, we don't want to lose anyone. Be careful and stay safe. Good luck from the left coast!
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Old 10-06-2016, 09:33 PM   #303
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Be safe, my friends! Thoughts and prayers for you.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:07 PM   #304
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Haven't heard anything from Moonstruck the last day or two. The Weather Channel shows the bulls eye just south of him in Ft. Pierce.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:22 PM   #305
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It appears the hurricane is taking a slight turn west. Good for all.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:39 PM   #306
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It appears the hurricane is taking a slight turn west. Good for all.
Seriously? That's the worst thing that could happen now. We need an easterly turn.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:53 PM   #307
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Sorry, it's late. Meant the east. My bad.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:53 PM   #308
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Watch WESH 2 News | Local News - WESH Home

Live cast of the area where Matthew is expected to be coming in now.
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Old 10-07-2016, 12:52 AM   #309
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And a reminder to look at the storm surge maps from NHC and temper what you hear on tv. Television deals in broad strokes of general areas and so automatically paints some worse than they are likely to be.

Hurricane MATTHEW

By example you'll see the area from Jupiter to Charleston shows 7-11' surge but if you examine closely it's only a few areas.

Stuart area looks bad between 1 AM and about 5 AM with winds at 83 mph. We're actually supposed to return briefly to 50+ mph.
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Old 10-07-2016, 01:06 AM   #310
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I hope this situation works out. We so rarely get events like this it`s hard to comprehend, may you have as good fortune as is possible.
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Old 10-07-2016, 01:14 AM   #311
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Still have power here in Vero Beach as of now, center is 50 miles due east and winds are gusting 70-80 right now.

Hang in there folks, worrying about everyone in state north of us.

Will get to the boat asap in AM.
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Old 10-07-2016, 01:22 AM   #312
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I hope this situation works out. We so rarely get events like this it`s hard to comprehend, may you have as good fortune as is possible.
We very rarely have them either in this area and how it works out tomorrow is a matter of a few degrees in direction. The hurricane stayed further off shore in South Florida than many of the predictions. As it goes up the coast, it can go in either direction.

Nassau did get hit hard before it left the Bahamas.
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Old 10-07-2016, 01:43 AM   #313
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Still have power here in Vero Beach as of now, center is 50 miles due east and winds are gusting 70-80 right now.

Hang in there folks, worrying about everyone in state north of us.

Will get to the boat asap in AM.
70-80 this is lot of wind hope you boat is safe and don't get any damage
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Old 10-07-2016, 05:19 AM   #314
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Wind speed probabilities have shifted lower for Jax this morning. I checked an hour ago and there was around a 75% probability for greater than 50 kts and 25% for greater than 64 knots.

JACKSONVILLE 34 82 13(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
JACKSONVILLE 50 20 40(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
JACKSONVILLE 64 5 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/070853.shtml
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Old 10-07-2016, 05:20 AM   #315
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 070857
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled
looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.
Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going
through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,
but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide
outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface
winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are
and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east
of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has
remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered
to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several
patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.

The initial motion estimate is 330/12 kt. For the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to move northward and then northeastward around
the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. After that
time, a weakening Matthew is expected to turn slowly southeastward
and then southward as the cyclone gets cut off from the influence of
the mid-latitude westerlies and becomes embedded within the
aforementioned large-scale high pressure ridge. The latest model
guidance has shifted to the left of the previous forecast track
after 36 hours, and the official forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but remains well to the right of the model consensus and
close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12
hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
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Old 10-07-2016, 08:42 AM   #316
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I just love waking up to good news. A lot of folks not out of the woods yet, but things are in much better shape than it looked like they would be this morning.
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Old 10-07-2016, 08:50 AM   #317
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I'm heading south, currently docked in VA with a FL destination. I wonder what the ICW condition will be like after the storm.
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:06 AM   #318
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I'm heading south, currently docked in VA with a FL destination. I wonder what the ICW condition will be like after the storm.
Join Active Captain if you haven't already and stay up on the reviews and comments ahead of you. Also make sure your using current electronic NOAA charts and update them daily.
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:28 AM   #319
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The upside is what you have been preaching all along, the forecasts are so unoredictsble...why prepare and leave until you know its time?

Sure you have to have more ducks in a row....but for every hurricane I was initially concerned about....I have only really had to do anything for maybe 1 in 10. That's living and boating in the Miami, Pensacola/Mobile, and NJ areas.

I learned to wait till I had to pull the trigger, then take the necessary steps to prevent damage or injury.
Thus far PS this appears to have been the sensible approach for FL. The coiffed weather heads seem focused on ratings, job security and Twitter hits. The sad story is Haiti, no where to run and hide from those airborne tin roofs.

But I did see where one of the Presidential hopefuls will stop hurricanes from forming in Africa and the Atlantic by implementing stage 3 of the Kyoto Treaty or some such action.
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:58 AM   #320
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Hurricane matthew tropical cyclone update
nws national hurricane center miami fl al142016
900 am edt fri oct 07 2016

...9 am edt position update...
...matthew's eyewall brushing the coast of north-central florida...

Summary of 900 am edt...1300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...29.0n 80.3w
about 45 mi...75 km nne of cape canaveral florida
about 45 mi...75 km se of daytona beach florida
maximum sustained winds...120 mph...195 km/h
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...945 mb...27.91 inches
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