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Old 10-05-2016, 12:41 PM   #221
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Interesting, but it looks like Va is safe.
I don't mind experiencing interesting weather up to a point, and we can use the rain.
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Old 10-05-2016, 12:42 PM   #222
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From Dr. Master's latest update:
Well, that's good news, but with all things fickle (Weather, women etc) it can all change. Webcam of my Washington Waterfront docks, show most have bailed for safer areas. Mark (Daddyo) and I will be out in the river swingng on mooring balls just in case!
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Old 10-05-2016, 01:00 PM   #223
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Heron,
I agree. A whole lot of professional forecasters shaking their heads on this one.

As I said before, seems almost like the closer we get, the more surprises we get...

A couple of models bring this across the state into GOM and then South.
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Old 10-05-2016, 01:12 PM   #224
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We are tied up at Atlantic Yacht Basin in Chesapeake, VA. Just wondering if any TF'ers are here as well?
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Old 10-05-2016, 01:56 PM   #225
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Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.
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Old 10-05-2016, 03:00 PM   #226
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Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.
I think they are going to have oral sex in Bermuda
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Old 10-05-2016, 03:15 PM   #227
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You have to wonder what Nicole entering the picture will mean . . . curiouser and curiouser as they say . . .
Google the
Fujiwhara effect, to see what happens when two storms interact.
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Old 10-05-2016, 03:20 PM   #228
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Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.
You may be kidding but I think you may not be far off the mark. I make no claims as a weather forecaster but I did study meteorology in university (in the old days). With the other big low east of Matthew (Louise) and yet another one in the North Atlantic these things act like black holes and pull towards each other. Add in the front coming down from Canada and the jetsream running north east through the US and it all adds up to Matthew being pushed/pulled east before it reaches the Chesapeake. Unfortunately if this does happen it makes the bizarre prediction of a 360degree rounding of Matthew possible so that Bahamas and Florida could get hit twice.

But what the hell lots of people know more than me.
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Old 10-05-2016, 04:25 PM   #229
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But what the hell lots of people know more than me.
Or claim to perhaps. Now when all this is over, every forecaster will be saying they told us exactly what was going to happen. Thing is, that will probably be true that one out of the hundred forecasts they gave turned out to be right.
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Old 10-05-2016, 04:53 PM   #230
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All day news about the storm approach in Miami,south Florida. Going over the same stuff for hours. Wife is watching and calling everyone she can. Got the boat ready for 30+ winds tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 45 so says the weather on the vhf. Tied everything down here at harbour Cay club and planing a hurricane party tomorrow night. Keys out of cone of death but will get winds and rain starting tonight thru Friday. Many boat have been pulled and racked,big boats on moorings in boot key harbour and have seen some yachts come into faro blanco to tie up for the storm. Going to be ready and watch where it guy is going after Saturday. Looks like it might turn back toward Florida. Let's hope not. Good luck to all in its path.
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:06 PM   #231
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A lot of forecasters have played catchup throughout this whole saga so far.
Really shows the value (if you can put up with all of the bickering, making liberal use of the "ignore" button) of a blog like Master's on WU.
A lot of the serious longtime bloggers there were way out in front of this with some pretty good analysis to back up what they were thinking.
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:27 PM   #232
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Interesting to look at Passageweather. They show a landfall between canaveral and stuart. Then up the coast, then back down. Not showing the big loop out to sea.
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:32 PM   #233
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Still so much unknown as just a few miles left or right changes everything. In FLL we have a hurricane warning but we have a forecast of only tropical storm winds. Now that makes sense as the warning is what happens if it moves left and the forecast is based on the current predicted path. I did notice that Daytona Beach has CAT 1 winds, around 85 mph forecast vs. our much lower forecast.

Groceries aren't the only thing with a run on them today. Everyone fueled their cars and cell phones sold insanely and are still doing so, referring to inexpensive phones and packages. The $29.99 phones and $30 plans. Batteries have also been hot. Some phones are just for backup. Others are for people who didn't have one. Actually wise in case land communication is down. We expect outrageous returns next week or just cancelling service. That's fine. I didn't anticipate this but fortunately those more knowledgeable than me run day to day operations.
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:37 PM   #234
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Hobo's 2 miles from the entrance of the St John's River in JAX, on the hard with 16 jack stands w/chains. She's facing into the wind. We reinstalled the thru hulls we took out last week. With the predicted storm surge of 4-6', she'll float if she has to. We should be done tomorrow am securing everything and then we wait.
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:47 PM   #235
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Hobo's 2 miles from the entrance of the St John's River in JAX, on the hard with 16 jack stands w/chains. She's facing into the wind. We reinstalled the thru hulls we took out last week. With the predicted storm surge of 4-6', she'll float if she has to. We should be done tomorrow am securing everything and then we wait.
Thinking outside the box for a moment....as hurricanes pass....winds shift. Plus the can be all over the place from turbulence, etc.

Thought about lowering your Paravane poles for less windage? I have been toying with the idea of connection ting them to heavy objects to also help any rocking in the stands......not convinced...just thinking....
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:48 PM   #236
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Larry: Might want to throw out the anchor.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:25 PM   #237
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Just a quick note to all,I hope all in the path (whatever it becomes) stay safe . God bless all .
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:30 PM   #238
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Lots of boats came up the Miami river today. Sold a bunch of rope and fenders. We're under a tropical storm warning but everyone is treating it like a hurricane warning. Good practice for us. Haven't gone through the drill in a long time.
Possum is behind my store with double lines and no canvas.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:35 PM   #239
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Stay safe everyone! No "stuff," even my boat, is worth injury or worse.

Godspeed.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:42 PM   #240
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If you follow the media reporting on this or any other hurricane they are really drama merchants and make it appear much more important than it is. The reporting after the storm always shows the worst, most destructive photos they can find. They are in the business of selling. My boat is on the Miami River and I've doubled the spring lines and taken in the cushions. I have confidence the boat will be fine.
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