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Old 10-04-2016, 11:50 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by Donsan View Post
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.

I would suggest checking one of the surge maps to get an idea.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp
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Old 10-05-2016, 12:06 AM   #202
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Wifey B: Where do you want to be? Home? Near your things? With family and friends? Far away from the hurricane. Seems simple until you face the choices. We have people looking after things for us in South Florida, nothing we need to be there to do. Chicago is safe. Yet, we're feeling bad like we should fly home and be there with them even though we don't think it's coming there. If you decide to fly home, what day? What about family in Myrtle Beach? Should we tell them to fly here? We would choose all our stuff getting destroyed before someone badly hurt protecting any of it. We really are torn over this. We have air tickets for Wednesday morning, just in case we want to go home. We could have them all come here, but if we were there, we wouldn't be leaving based on what we know right now. Guess we'll follow it more tomorrow and think more.
Wifey B: We flew home tonight. Everyone told us to stay in Chicago but we feel so much better home in Fort Lauderdale. We know it's stupid but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:03 AM   #203
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Wifey B: We flew home tonight. Everyone told us to stay in Chicago but we feel so much better home in Fort Lauderdale. We know it's stupid but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
I understand completely, we have been in the same situation and made the same decision. It will be hard for some to understand. All the best and stay safe.
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:54 AM   #204
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So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
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Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
As of Wednesday morning NHC predicts 30-40% chance of tropical force winds in the Tampa Bay area. I'm at the Harborage marina which is pretty well protected from waves and because of the vicinity of the downtown area, winds as well. I'll be headed down to the boat tomorrow to check on things.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:29 AM   #205
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Anticipation - Green Cove Springs is about 30mil from the ocean on St.Johns river. Took down my bimini top and secure with extra lines. I hope that Mather Nature let me keep it. Floating docks are old and fragile - hook up extra lines to the peer. Large, open area from NE - good for wind, bad for me. Will see what happen.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:04 AM   #206
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Anticipation - Green Cove Springs is about 30mil from the ocean on St.Johns river. Took down my bimini top and secure with extra lines. I hope that Mather Nature let me keep it. Floating docks are old and fragile - hook up extra lines to the peer. Large, open area from NE - good for wind, bad for me. Will see what happen.
Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:16 AM   #207
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Crashed last night thinking "Ok...things are starting to get sorted, models are converging, at least people have an idea now of when/where."
Woke up this morning, grabbed coffee, sat down...

Well crap.
Anyone seen a Cat 4 hurricane make a 360 turn off the coast of Miami?
https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...w?map=ensmodel

I'm thinking that instead of the models getting more accurate, we're seeing the opposite.
Seems like anything out past about 12hrs is anyone's guess at this point.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:17 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by Donsan View Post
Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
Really just depends on how high the posts are and how strongly the docks are secured. Some can handle 4' and some up to 15'. Now, hopefully you will not experience CAT 3. It's likely to be a CAT 2 or 3 by the time it reaches you but offshore a bit.

Note an overnight change. After coming up the coast a bit, many of the forecasts have it turning more sharply east and one even has it doing a completely clockwise loop almost.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:21 AM   #209
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This note from Dr. Masters is pretty telling:
"1900. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
12:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2016
6 +
Good morning, all! Though my morning started out not so good. While looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. Next post should be up around 10 am."
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:26 AM   #210
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Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
At the best - 2-3 feet. They are old and falling apart. They do not have a concrete ( or wooden)post. Any pressure from a side will rip them off. Worst case - I will be floating in river with the dock. There is a reason why this marina is so cheap.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:46 AM   #211
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NoDistination, have you thought about Trout Creek ? You would be on the sheltered side of the river and plenty of tree's to tie off to and water depth.
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Old 10-05-2016, 08:55 AM   #212
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Yes, I did, but if Mother Nature decided to hit me - no place to hide. Just talk to some marina workers and those docks should take 4 feet, and maybe even 5. I got 6 lines tide to the peer. Will see what happen. It may be nothing. After the hurricane "clear" the Bahamas, then we will know where is going and what cat. Until then, just speculations.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:11 AM   #213
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Not looking good for Florida.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:21 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by Lobstah View Post
Crashed last night thinking "Ok...things are starting to get sorted, models are converging, at least people have an idea now of when/where."
Woke up this morning, grabbed coffee, sat down...

Well crap.
Anyone seen a Cat 4 hurricane make a 360 turn off the coast of Miami?
https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...w?map=ensmodel

I'm thinking that instead of the models getting more accurate, we're seeing the opposite.
Seems like anything out past about 12hrs is anyone's guess at this point.
That is just one model but all now have it turning away from shore at some point more than they previously did.

Here's the interesting aspect of it all. Currently we have hurricane warnings. However, if you look at the forecasts, we don't come close to hurricane as the winds tomorrow are 40-45 mph with gusts around 70 mph or 58-62 mph on another forecast, so no forecast of it coming ashore as a hurricane. Doesn't mean it can't but the actual forecast is far different than the headlines. Now a course change could bring it ashore, but that's not the forecast.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:31 AM   #215
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Traveling at 8 or 9 mph gives it a wide range of directions. I wish it would speed up.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:39 AM   #216
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Man, all the time I have spent reviewing models and forecast tracks... What a wasted effort. I now know where the term "spaghetti" map comes from. Put a map on the table and throw some wet spaghetti on it.

I think one improvement might be for the forecast cone to be shaded in colors indicating their confidence of the track. Folks get hung up on the cone map because it is graphically simple to understand.

Sometimes these models really nail the course. Sometimes the models are not worth a cr@p. In the discussion, they will say as much as they have in this case, but the cone remains the same and all sorts of people make decisions based on the cone. Then wake up in the morning like I did and go "WTF".

Lots of folks are in a tizzy.

I've got my hurricane prep steps for the boats, docks and house down to about 12hrs of work for a 2/3. I learned a long time ago to do NOTHING until the last 12hrs of daylight. Not too productive doing all that work and then getting 20kts of wind.

4/5 probably nothing matters, but I'll do the preps anyway.
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Old 10-05-2016, 10:08 AM   #217
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Good Luck NoDistination.
We lived in the Tocoi area and my Hurricane Hole down that way was Deep Creek, never had to use it the 25 years we lived there, most damage from off shore hurricanes caused by sections of docking breaking loose and ending up as battering rams. Lost a nice concrete bulkhead !
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Old 10-05-2016, 10:14 AM   #218
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Some sites actually do have shaded cones with probabilities of tropical storm winds and of hurricane winds in specific areas. However, they've moved a bit too, just not dramatically. The issue I see is that the Hurricane Warnings and the Governor's talks as well as the television headlines differ significantly from the actual forecasts. They keep talking about CAT 4 for South Florida but that remains offshore and the equivalent forecast for land remains at tropical storm level. The European forecast long ago showed it coming up the coast of FL just offshore. That's what is shown now. it showed it following the coast on up. Now, that's shown but also they show it turning East. That makes sense as other systems come into play.

As to boats and home, we've done what there is to do and just wait now. As to businesses, they will close during the afternoon as we get into a closer window and reopen mid day on Friday. This is just as a favor to employees (who will be paid their scheduled hours) and a recognition that no one is going to shop for clothing or furniture or such tomorrow. Phone stores will stay open longer where possible. We sell no necessities. We sell nothing you need for a hurricane. For employees of grocers and home products such as Home Depot, it's far more challenging.

Did just see a headline reminding that Cape Hatteras receives the most hurricanes of any point in the US. Just a random note.

Currently 86 degrees and winds of 9 mph.
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Old 10-05-2016, 10:20 AM   #219
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One of the local forecasts in Fl:
From WFTV / Tom Terry:

IMPACTS & THREATS

Along the coast (Brevard, Volusia, and Flagler counties):

Thursday: Tropical storm –force winds of at least 39 mph (sustained winds)
Friday: Strongest winds, likely hurricane-force winds of at least 75 mph maximum sustained winds. Very high surf, wave above 15 feet, storm surge of 3-6 feet in some areas, rip currents and large beach erosion. Rainfall could vary between 3-6 inches, depending on the track and where the bands become more persistent.
Storm surge: An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm over and above the predicted astronomical tide, will be a big problem for coastal Brevard, Volusia and Flagler residents.

From New Smyrna Beach north, storm surge could be 5 to 7 feet. Brevard County likely to experience 3 to 5 feet storm surge.
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Old 10-05-2016, 12:11 PM   #220
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From Dr. Master's latest update:
"Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity. While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week."
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