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10-04-2016, 06:33 PM
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#181
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Guru
City: kemah
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1,135
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So just a word of caution. The last time a big cane went thru SC it killed the debit card processors. The cards were down for a week I think.
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10-04-2016, 07:16 PM
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#182
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Guru
City: st pete
Vessel Model: 430 Mainship
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donsan
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
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Donsan,
Wish you the best of luck, but 2 feet is awful optimistic.
__________________
Seevee
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10-04-2016, 07:19 PM
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#183
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Guru
City: st pete
Vessel Model: 430 Mainship
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timjet
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
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Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
__________________
Seevee
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10-04-2016, 07:26 PM
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#184
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Guru
City: Miami River
Vessel Name: Gotcha
Vessel Model: Grand Banks. Heritage. 54
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 2,988
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Lobstah I have no idea how long you have been following Florida bound hurricanes but I find the models to be extremely accurate currently versus those of 20-30-40 or even 50+ years ago. We don't know EXACTLY where this hurricane will make landfall but we have an educated quess that is being updated every 12 hours or so. I can live with the current prognostication.
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10-04-2016, 07:37 PM
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#185
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Senior Member
City: Bucksport, Maine
Vessel Name: T/T Whistful
Vessel Model: Boat US 12' Inflatable
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 242
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Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.
This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.
Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.
Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
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10-04-2016, 07:41 PM
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#186
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Guru
City: Here
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,940
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angus99
Wallace, Worton Creek had some transient spots when I was there Sunday. It's well-protected, especially from the east. If you end up there, let me know; like to shake hands.
Ian (angus99)
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Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss
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10-04-2016, 07:48 PM
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#187
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Guru
City: st pete
Vessel Model: 430 Mainship
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobstah
Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.
This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.
Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.
Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
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Lobstah
Good points, however "usually" the majority of the spaghetti models come thru as predicted and the NWS really doesn't do a bad job.
Nothing perfect in predictions, but this day and age they are quite accurate.
__________________
Seevee
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10-04-2016, 07:51 PM
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#188
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Guru
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin/PSN 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 28,147
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Forecasting certainly came a long way with the advent of computers, satellites and the funding it gets now.
Lots of professions can't predict the future.....banking, medicine, mechanics, etc...etc...
I have been using weather data professionally since the 70s and am dang glad we have come this far.
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10-04-2016, 07:53 PM
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#189
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Guru
City: Signal Mtn., TN
Vessel Name: Stella Maris
Vessel Model: Defever 44
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,742
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boatpoker
Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss
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If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
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10-04-2016, 08:02 PM
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#190
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Guru
City: Miami River
Vessel Name: Gotcha
Vessel Model: Grand Banks. Heritage. 54
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 2,988
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Seevee. I agree, the further the hurricane is out (the more days it needs to travel to make landfall) the further the models will disagree but as those days shrink the predictions become more accurate and the accuracy improves. I've been following hurricanes since the 1940s having lived in Miami all my life and I can remember storms that were predicted to miss Miami that came straight over the hiss I grew up on an island (no water in the house but three feet outside). It's much better today.
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10-04-2016, 08:04 PM
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#191
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Enigma
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16,563
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Greetings,
As an aside, I vaguely remember an episode of WKRP in Cincinnati where Les Nessman was giving an "on the spot" weather report. Andy (station manager) asked Les where he got his weather information. Les replied "I just look out the window and report what I see".
__________________
RTF
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10-04-2016, 08:06 PM
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#192
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Guru
City: Miami River
Vessel Name: Gotcha
Vessel Model: Grand Banks. Heritage. 54
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 2,988
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RT. I remember that episode, what a fun program.
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10-04-2016, 08:07 PM
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#193
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Guru
City: Here
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,940
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angus99
If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
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Probably will be. email boatpoker@gmail.com before you come just to make sure.
Looking forward to it.
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10-04-2016, 09:35 PM
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#194
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Guru
City: Longboat Key, FL
Vessel Name: Bucky
Vessel Model: Krogen Manatee 36 North Sea
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timjet
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
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So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
__________________
Larry
"When life gets hard, eat marshmallows”.
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10-04-2016, 09:46 PM
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#195
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Senior Member
City: Gustavia
Vessel Name: Soler Fox
Vessel Model: Selene 62
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 339
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I'm wondering about people in Haiti and Cuba any news?
Hugues
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10-04-2016, 09:56 PM
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#196
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Senior Member
City: Florida
Vessel Name: Mersea
Vessel Model: Marquis 59
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 202
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Last I read, the government of Haiti had requested humanitarian assistance from the US military. Lot of areas unreachable with no communication.
No doubt significant impact, not sure if the outside world know yet.
Mark
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10-04-2016, 10:11 PM
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#197
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Guru
City: ketchikan, Alaska
Vessel Name: 'SLO'~BELLE
Vessel Model: 1978 Marben-27' Flybridge Trawler(extended to 30 feet) Pilothouse Pocket Cruiser[
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,206
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I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.
https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4
Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am)
Al-Ketchikan,Alaska 27' Marben Pocket Cruiser
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10-04-2016, 10:20 PM
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#198
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Senior Member
City: Gustavia
Vessel Name: Soler Fox
Vessel Model: Selene 62
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 339
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North of Haiti and Est of Cuba still under Matthew
Hope that not kill to many people but seriously due to the poverty to this country I'm not really peaceful for them...
Hugues
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10-04-2016, 10:24 PM
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#199
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Guru
City: Sydney
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al
I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.
https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4
Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am)
Al-Ketchikan,Alaska 27' Marben Pocket Cruiser
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Is that the same good Lord that created the storm
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10-04-2016, 10:44 PM
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#200
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Guru
City: Miami Florida
Vessel Name: Possum
Vessel Model: Ellis 28
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 5,307
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Took the canvas off Possum today. Shutters go up tomorrow. I've got a fancy wrap on my store building. It's getting a little old and I was thinking of taking it off. I suspect that on Thursday that decision will be made for me.
__________________
Parks Masterson
Retired from Hopkins-Carter Marine Supply
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