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Old 10-04-2016, 07:33 PM   #181
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So just a word of caution. The last time a big cane went thru SC it killed the debit card processors. The cards were down for a week I think.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:16 PM   #182
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About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
Donsan,

Wish you the best of luck, but 2 feet is awful optimistic.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:19 PM   #183
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Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:26 PM   #184
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Lobstah I have no idea how long you have been following Florida bound hurricanes but I find the models to be extremely accurate currently versus those of 20-30-40 or even 50+ years ago. We don't know EXACTLY where this hurricane will make landfall but we have an educated quess that is being updated every 12 hours or so. I can live with the current prognostication.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:37 PM   #185
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Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.

This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.

Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.

Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:41 PM   #186
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Wallace, Worton Creek had some transient spots when I was there Sunday. It's well-protected, especially from the east. If you end up there, let me know; like to shake hands.

Ian (angus99)
Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:48 PM   #187
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Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.

This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.

Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.

Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
Lobstah

Good points, however "usually" the majority of the spaghetti models come thru as predicted and the NWS really doesn't do a bad job.

Nothing perfect in predictions, but this day and age they are quite accurate.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:51 PM   #188
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Forecasting certainly came a long way with the advent of computers, satellites and the funding it gets now.

Lots of professions can't predict the future.....banking, medicine, mechanics, etc...etc...

I have been using weather data professionally since the 70s and am dang glad we have come this far.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:53 PM   #189
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Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss
If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
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Old 10-04-2016, 09:02 PM   #190
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Seevee. I agree, the further the hurricane is out (the more days it needs to travel to make landfall) the further the models will disagree but as those days shrink the predictions become more accurate and the accuracy improves. I've been following hurricanes since the 1940s having lived in Miami all my life and I can remember storms that were predicted to miss Miami that came straight over the hiss I grew up on an island (no water in the house but three feet outside). It's much better today.
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Old 10-04-2016, 09:04 PM   #191
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Greetings,
As an aside, I vaguely remember an episode of WKRP in Cincinnati where Les Nessman was giving an "on the spot" weather report. Andy (station manager) asked Les where he got his weather information. Les replied "I just look out the window and report what I see".
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Old 10-04-2016, 09:06 PM   #192
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RT. I remember that episode, what a fun program.
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Old 10-04-2016, 09:07 PM   #193
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If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
Probably will be. email boatpoker@gmail.com before you come just to make sure.

Looking forward to it.
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Old 10-04-2016, 10:35 PM   #194
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Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
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Old 10-04-2016, 10:46 PM   #195
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I'm wondering about people in Haiti and Cuba any news?

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Old 10-04-2016, 10:56 PM   #196
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Last I read, the government of Haiti had requested humanitarian assistance from the US military. Lot of areas unreachable with no communication.

No doubt significant impact, not sure if the outside world know yet.

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Old 10-04-2016, 11:11 PM   #197
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I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.

https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4

Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am)

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Old 10-04-2016, 11:20 PM   #198
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North of Haiti and Est of Cuba still under Matthew

Hope that not kill to many people but seriously due to the poverty to this country I'm not really peaceful for them...

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Old 10-04-2016, 11:24 PM   #199
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I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.

https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4

Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am)

Al-Ketchikan,Alaska 27' Marben Pocket Cruiser

Is that the same good Lord that created the storm
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Old 10-04-2016, 11:44 PM   #200
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Took the canvas off Possum today. Shutters go up tomorrow. I've got a fancy wrap on my store building. It's getting a little old and I was thinking of taking it off. I suspect that on Thursday that decision will be made for me.
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