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Old 10-02-2015, 01:08 PM   #61
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Didn't mean to imply no surge
I didn't read that implication, B1. Just pics of interest is all.
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Old 10-02-2015, 01:09 PM   #62
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The poor folks in the Bahamas. Chris Parker's Wx Update, INTERIM TROPICAL, //WL2K R/ Fri2, 1p 10/2

RECON made its 1st pass near Georgetown, Bahamas just a few minutes past 11am, and sampled surface wind in this area ranging from 50-65k sustained, probably from the NNW.

Also sampled near SanSalvador, with 87k (likely from SE direction). SanSal is likely to continue clocking SE<S<SW, but could see Joaquin's strongest (120k sustained) winds later this afternoon-tonight.

Joaquin will move over RumCay this afternoon...at 11:27am RECON fixed Joaquin's center 23.53N/74.82W, 940mb. This position is less than 10mi S of RumCay, where winds may run to 120k sustained from various directions.
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Old 10-02-2015, 01:17 PM   #63
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The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.

The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.

The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.
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Old 10-02-2015, 01:25 PM   #64
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The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.

The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.

The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.
Uh, oh.
EL FARO - Vehicles Carrier: current position and details | IMO 7395351, MMSI 368208000, Callsign WFJK | Registered in USA - AIS Marine Traffic
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Old 10-02-2015, 02:53 PM   #65
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The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.

The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.

The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/news/59641
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Old 10-02-2015, 06:32 PM   #66
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Interesting article in the NY Times. I will excerpt some of it. No political agenda here at all -- just interesting.

"For days, the models that guide the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts had been split over the future of Hurricane Joaquin. Different models were sending the storm to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina or to Maine or to Bermuda. The official forecast — which held that the storm would make landfall in the mid-Atlantic — was “low” confidence, as the center put it. It was an attempt to compromise between models that fundamentally disagreed.

Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.

If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.

It’s not the first time that the European model has led the pack. It’s almost a repeat of what happened with Hurricane Sandy, but in reverse. Three years ago, the European model anticipated, far in advance, Sandy’s unusual “left hook” into New Jersey. This time, the other models called for a left turn, and the European model dissented.

It’s a familiar story for meteorologists who have been calling for vast and attainable improvements in American weather forecasting for years.

Over the last few decades, faster computers, superior models and new data have allowed all weather forecasting to improve, by a lot. But the United States hasn’t quite matched that effort. It didn’t invest in computing power and models that kept up with the potential for better forecasts."
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Old 10-02-2015, 06:33 PM   #67
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El Faro has been found off Crooked Island, listing at 15 deg and taking on water. No word on the 33 on board. Not just a cargo ship, but a ro-ro vehicle carrier. Oh, well, there go the great bonefishing flats.
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Old 10-02-2015, 06:53 PM   #68
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El Faro has been found off Crooked Island, listing at 15 deg and taking on water. No word on the 33 on board. Not just a cargo ship, but a ro-ro vehicle carrier. Oh, well, there go the great bonefishing flats.
I wanted to share that information with others. Do you have any sort of link to a source?
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Old 10-02-2015, 07:00 PM   #69
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Thanks to all who informed me on andrew and past hurricanes. Andrew was before my time.
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Old 10-02-2015, 07:09 PM   #70
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One could pay extremely high property/sales/income taxes as well as high home/food/gasoline prices along coastal California so to enjoy relatively gentle weather. There are a lot of vacancies at the Vallejo marina, but not in central bay San Francisco.
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:04 PM   #71
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One could pay extremely high property/sales/income taxes as well as high home/food/gasoline prices along coastal California so to enjoy relatively gentle weather. There are a lot of vacancies at the Vallejo marina, but not in central bay San Francisco.
I'll stay in West Coast Florida and take my chances
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:20 PM   #72
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Thanks to all who informed me on andrew and past hurricanes. Andrew was before my time.
Wifey B: I was 13....you need to read more....hehe
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Old 10-02-2015, 09:44 PM   #73
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El Faro has been found off Crooked Island, listing at 15 deg and taking on water. No word on the 33 on board. Not just a cargo ship, but a ro-ro vehicle carrier. Oh, well, there go the great bonefishing flats.

Not found yet from what can find.


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Old 10-02-2015, 10:47 PM   #74
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Wifey B: I was 13....you need to read more....hehe
I was NOT 13 when Andrew turned left and headed to South Florida. I was moving the week that Andrew came ashore and living in South Florida. We had planned to have a nice, non stressful, non hurried move unlike all of my other moves which had been hurried. Andrew popped up, seemed to be heading north and not threat when it turned left and head for FLA!

I made some quick calls, found out I could get the rental moving truck a few days early and we started packing. As the first bands of rain from Andrew moved in, I climbed into the moving truck, my mom handed me a bag of McD's hamburgers and I started driving. My parents lived north of where Andrew was forecast to land so they just had to head back home while I left the state. The turnpike was a parking lot so I figured I would try I95 which was a parking lot. It took about 4 fours to travel what should have taken 30-60 minutes. I 95 had been expanded to more lanes in Boynton Beach but the idiots had left cones reducing the travel lanes. As I got by the coke point, FHP was moving those danged cones and letting the traffic flow.

I managed to get to a rest area in SC, which is now closed, and went to sleep at 0200 in the morning. Got up and made it to NC, had breakfast in Raleigh before reaching my destination. NOT a fun trip. In the end, Andrew went south of where I lived but if it had hit a bit north....

Figured hurricanes when be in my past, but then we had Floyd, Fran and other storms.

What is freaky about Joaquin is that the storm is just SITTING there and not moving... The islands must be taking a beating...

Later,
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Old 10-03-2015, 12:09 AM   #75
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Andrew blew up Baton Rouge. A week or so without power-no air conditioning. It was then that I met the smartest guy in town, the owner of Ivar's bar. He had rigged a generator and had a neon cold beer sign, working cash register, and booze. The place was packed, everybody all straggled looking, and glad to be out of the house. No AC there either but no one cared.
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Old 10-03-2015, 12:18 AM   #76
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What is freaky about Joaquin is that the storm is just SITTING there and not moving... The islands must be taking a beating...

Later,
Dan
It's moving at 10 mph now and down to a CAT 3. Forecast to leave the Bahamas behind tomorrow morning and head for Bermuda.
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Old 10-03-2015, 06:26 AM   #77
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"Forecast to leave the Bahamas behind tomorrow morning and head for Bermuda"


At least their cisterns are full.
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Old 10-03-2015, 06:52 AM   #78
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One could pay extremely high property/sales/income taxes as well as high home/food/gasoline prices along coastal California so to enjoy relatively gentle weather. There are a lot of vacancies at the Vallejo marina, but not in central bay San Francisco.
As FF says, replenish the cisterns. The CA weather is indeed "nice" with no help past present or future for storms that bring water to assist the lawns, golf courses and crop lands.

The raging fires north of SF are a different form of nature sprung disasters. People there hoped and prayed for a hurricane type rainstorm event a few weeks ago.
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Old 10-03-2015, 08:20 AM   #79
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8am Sat
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Old 10-03-2015, 10:01 AM   #80
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Joaquin was the first Category 4 storm to track through the Bahamas since 1866. It was the 20th to impact the Bahamas at all in the last 164 years.
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