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Old 10-02-2015, 08:01 AM   #41
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8 am Friday
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:08 AM   #42
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Part of Chris Parker's 7am.

Could Joaquin still hit US E Coast? I think all of our ThuOct1 discussions remain valid. It would take a major surprise to bring Joaquin to the US E Coast. The 1st objective criteria we were looking at was Joaquin's 5am position this morning. If this position was S of 24N, it would suggest there's not much risk for US E Coast...BECAUSE the upper-TROF/ColdFRONT along US E Coast would weaken before it could pull Joaquin to the Coast. This objective test was met (Joaquin lies 23.3N).

The 2nd objective test is for Joaquin to lie anywhere S of 30N, or S&E of 30N/71W at the 5pm Advisory Sat3. Most credible forecast models predict Joaquin will pass this test as well, and, therefore, the US E Coast TROF will be too weak to pull Joaquin to the Coast.

However, Joaquin will help to maintain the overall tight gradient (Nor'Easter conditions) along & off US E Coast into Mon5.

Any offshore vessels between Bermuda and US E Coast/NScotia could be in the path of Joaquin...and Joaquin could pass close enough to Nantucket/CpCod and NScotia's S Coast to support backing NE<N@50 Mon5 (maybe Mon5-Tue6 for NScotia).
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:20 AM   #43
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:24 AM   #44
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Although Joaquin is looking more and more like it will stay offshore, the local weather boys will not be outdone. They are calling for up to 18" (yes, that's correct!!) of rain for the carolinas and where we are in maryland: 3" (still a lot!) today and we are well on our way. Everyone keep your eyes peeled for flooding. Also, the winds are ripping and supposed to keep climbing - mid-Chesapeake could see gusts to 40 mph this weekend according to wunderground.com.

if you were planning to button up, you probably still should and sooner rather than later
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Old 10-02-2015, 08:51 AM   #45
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Looking at Andrew, and Joaquin they seem to resemble each other. I hope it doesn't end up to be that way. Does anyone know if Andrew was also slow moving like Joaquin?
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Old 10-02-2015, 09:44 AM   #46
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Looking at Andrew, and Joaquin they seem to resemble each other. I hope it doesn't end up to be that way. Does anyone know if Andrew was also slow moving like Joaquin?
Andrew was a freight train. She was 12 days total. Ran from Abaco to FL, across the Gulf to New Orleans and NE to Charlotte in 4 days.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican...rricane-Andrew?
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Old 10-02-2015, 10:58 AM   #47
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Peter Ray's info on this new storm:

FORECAST: By the time you read this JOAQUIN will be a Category 1 hurricane. The storm is 90 miles east of Key Largo moving to the SW in very warm waters.


Huh - what? On that day the centre of this storm was over the Turks and Caicos. That my friends is 315nm from Key Largo. It was stationary at that point. This morning the centre was located 23.4N/74.8W still over San Salvador/Rum Cay.

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Old 10-02-2015, 10:59 AM   #48
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Andrew was a freight train. She was 12 days total. Ran from Abaco to FL, across the Gulf to New Orleans and NE to Charlotte in 4 days.
Major Hurricane Andrew | Weather Underground?
I rode out Camile, Andrew and Katrina on ships in harbour
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:19 AM   #49
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Huh - what? On that day the centre of this storm was over the Turks and Caicos. That my friends is 315nm from Key Largo.
Maybe he made a typo, I don't know. I just reposted it, for what it might be worth. Don't vouch for the accuracy of it. He has a good track record on his predictions, though.
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:20 AM   #50
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Looking at Andrew, and Joaquin they seem to resemble each other. I hope it doesn't end up to be that way. Does anyone know if Andrew was also slow moving like Joaquin?
Actually they are total opposites. Joaquin resembles Sandy. Off shore, slow moving, lots of flooding, especially as it's hitting some areas that had already had a good bit of rain. Andrew was fast and most of it's damage was wind. It didn't have much surge for it's size. Haven't heard any surge numbers on Joaquin.

So far, not hearing of damage even in the Bahamas other than flooding.
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:26 AM   #51
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Lunacy and Greed

A growing Hurricane Joaquin has forced cruise ships carrying more than 25,000 vacationers to alter course as it barrels across the Bahamas.

Cruise giant Carnival said two of its ships, the 2,124-passenger Carnival Pride and 2,974-passenger Carnival Valor, skipped calls scheduled for Thursday in Half Moon Cay, Bahamas and Grand Turk, respectively. Both of the vessels remained at sea as they moved to avoid the Category 4 storm.

Two more Carnival ships, the 2.974-passenger Carnival Conquest and 2,052-passenger Carnival Sensation, will skip calls scheduled for Friday in Grand Turk and Nassau, Bahamas, respectively. The Conquest will remain at sea while the Sensation heads to Freeport, Bahamas.

Also changing course is Norwegian Cruise Line's 4,000-passenger Norwegian Getaway, which will forgo a port call planned for Nassau on Friday to avoid the storm, instead remaining at sea.


And why are they even in the Bahamas? Greed. Any of them could have headed to safety in South Florida. I'll skip Grand Turk and take you to Freeport? But I am going to keep you all on the ship so I can collect the full amount. After all, on those three boats I have $9 million in revenues. I never promised you we'd actually see any place, just be on the boat. (Yes, read the fine print).
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:30 AM   #52
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Wifey B: Translation help please....

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS

Groins? Oww....
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:35 AM   #53
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Wifey B: Translation help please....

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS

Groins? Oww....
"A small jetty extending from a shore to protect a beach against erosion or to trap shifting sands."
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:43 AM   #54
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Greetings,
Ms, BB. That could also be a description of explosive diarrhea. I WAS going to post a funny poop video but...I DO have some standards.
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:55 AM   #55
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We drove this morning from Myrtle Beach to Charlotte. Back to Myrtle Beach late Sunday. Seems the entire area, even western NC has flood watches with numbers tossed around from 6 to 12 inches. Apparently one death in SC and it's not even hit yet. Someone drove into a flooded street and drowned.

Some of western NC and VA have had up to 15" of rain in the past week. Beaufort NC and Hatteras have both had over 10". Portland ME had over 5" in one day. This is where the greatest fear comes from, not Joaquin, but what it is following and the system it will be arriving with. Charlotte NC getting two inches today and tonight and Joaquin hasn't left the Bahamas area. 6 to 12 inches of rain forecast as far west as Asheville NC.

Out boat is very safe. Floating dock on ICW which can easily handle more surge than they've ever gotten or will get this time. Now driving on the roads, a bit less certain.
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Old 10-02-2015, 11:57 AM   #56
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Greetings,
Ms, BB. That could also be a description of explosive diarrhea. I WAS going to post a funny poop video but...I DO have some standards.
Wifey B: Well always expanding my vocabulary. I did google it but had not heard it used like that before. Hubby did grimace when I read it to him.
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Old 10-02-2015, 12:20 PM   #57
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Wifey B: Translation help please....

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS

Groins? Oww....
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=groins+beach+images+
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Old 10-02-2015, 12:26 PM   #58
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Joaquin vs. Sandy

Similar Central Bahamas location.

Joaquin more powerful. Sandy peaked at a category 3 but then stepped down rather quickly to a tropical storm. Joaquin became a 4 and is expected to drop to a 2 fairly soon after leaving the Bahamas and a 1 by the time it passes NC/VA area.

Sandy was mammoth in size reaching 1000 mile diameter. Joaquin currently 200 miles.

Sandy slammed into the coast, Joaquin currently projected to stay off shore.

Sandy produced more surge than is likely from Joaquin. Currently only 1-2' expected from Joaquin.

Joaquin is accompanied by far more rain. Sandy had about 6" of rainfall. Combined with a front that would be causing rain even without Joaquin, the predictions are up to 12" and that's with Joaquin staying well off shore. Furthermore that comes on top of 6-12" of rain many areas have already received. So it's Joaquin + other. Actually Sandy was a bit like that too in that computer modeling now shows that even if Sandy hadn't formed, a nor'easter would have formed anyway, although of far less force.

So, a lot of flooding ahead, only some because of Joaquin.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurric...ast-east-coast
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Old 10-02-2015, 12:49 PM   #59
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Andrew was fast and most of it's damage was wind. It didn't have much surge for it's size.
These pics were taken a little over a month after Andrew ran over Eleuthera. Wherever there is no green, the vegetation was killed by huge amounts of wind driven salt spray or direct wave hits.
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Old 10-02-2015, 01:03 PM   #60
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These pics were taken a little over a month after Andrew ran over Eleuthera. Wherever there is no green, the vegetation was killed by huge amounts of wind driven salt spray or direct wave hits.
Didn't mean to imply no surge, just nothing like predicted, especially when it hit Florida, and low surge for a CAT 4-5 hurricane. Surge for the Bahamas in the two worst places recorded was 16' and 23'. Surge for Biscayne Bay was projected to be 12-16' but was 4-6'. The maximum surge in the US was at Burger King's headquarters 16.9'.

Ultimately most of the US coast had 4-6' though vs. predictions of 12-16' and fears of 20' or more. Katrina had 25-28'. Ike had 15-20'.
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