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Old 10-01-2015, 10:38 AM   #21
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I'm leaving tomorrow for 8 days in Central America. I just authorized Herrington Harbour our current marina on the Chesapeake to haul the boat.
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Old 10-01-2015, 10:52 AM   #22
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I've been watching this thing closely. My daughter and her family live in New Bern, NC. Her husband is a Marine, and is supposed to be shipping out on a Med float tomorrow, leaving her alone with her 7 year old daughter. To say she's freaking out a little bit is an understatement
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Old 10-01-2015, 11:23 AM   #23
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I've been watching this thing closely. My daughter and her family live in New Bern, NC. Her husband is a Marine, and is supposed to be shipping out on a Med float tomorrow, leaving her alone with her 7 year old daughter. To say she's freaking out a little bit is an understatement
I understand her concern especially with the little one to protect. There are few cellars or basements in that area. How about a shelter? Just being around other people could comfort them. I am sure you have probably thought of this. I certainly hope that they will come through unscathed.
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Old 10-01-2015, 11:35 AM   #24
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Not to down play your daughters fears, but she is thankfully inland a bit, and if anything hop in your car and drive west and find a nice hotel for a night.
And please thank your son-in-law for his service from me, safe return.
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I've been watching this thing closely. My daughter and her family live in New Bern, NC. Her husband is a Marine, and is supposed to be shipping out on a Med float tomorrow, leaving her alone with her 7 year old daughter. To say she's freaking out a little bit is an understatement
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Old 10-01-2015, 11:44 AM   #25
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Not liking the latest target map.
I think I see my boat being the bullseye.


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Old 10-01-2015, 03:19 PM   #26
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And one more reminder to all those who talk about hurricanes in South Florida. Another one bypasses South Florida and again the East Coast from SC north is in the potential area. We're going to be 150 miles inland in NC and forecast up to 12" of rain over the weekend.
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Old 10-01-2015, 03:58 PM   #27
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Just heard Joaquin is now a Cat 4. Praying you all stay safe out there.
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Old 10-01-2015, 04:03 PM   #28
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Oh boy, now you did it!!!
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And one more reminder to all those who talk about hurricanes in South Florida. Another one bypasses South Florida and again the East Coast from SC north is in the potential area. We're going to be 150 miles inland in NC and forecast up to 12" of rain over the weekend.
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Old 10-01-2015, 04:34 PM   #29
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I hauled out yesterday. Tortuga is in the winter storage shed with all systems winterized. I think she will ride this one out just fine. My haulout was scheduled three weeks ago and had nothing to do with this storm. The marina has already pulled half of the finger piers and the rest will go next week. The season is over for me.
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Old 10-01-2015, 04:42 PM   #30
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I hauled out yesterday. Tortuga is in the winter storage shed with all systems winterized. I think she will ride this one out just fine. My haulout was scheduled three weeks ago and had nothing to do with this storm. The marina has already pulled half of the finger piers and the rest will go next week. The season is over for me.
Hauling out tomorrow. Outside storage. Hopefully our, and our neighbors', jackstands hold should Joaguin hit downeast. The season is over for us as well.
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Old 10-01-2015, 04:50 PM   #31
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Skinny Dippin' is near New Bern NC. I went down last night to remove all cushions, cushion covers, dinghy accessories, anything that could become missiles in the wind. I also prepped for heavy rain making sure there is nothing on deck to cover or clog scupper drains, even leaving the transom door open. (Tuna door). double lines all around with enough length to go up several feet. I also turned off the fridge so that if we lose power, the batteries' only mission is bilge pumps.

I removed everything except the Bimini. Not sure that the wind will get here. But we can still go Saturday to remove it if the forecast demands.

Stay safe everyone.
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Old 10-01-2015, 05:05 PM   #32
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NHC is moving their forecast a bit to the east and away from land. Great!
Here is quote from 5 PM discussion today:

" A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days."
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Old 10-01-2015, 05:32 PM   #33
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And Peter Ray's analysis now:

Friends, Still a lot of uncertainly but the veil is beginning to lift.


FORECAST: HURRICANE JOAQUIN still is "hanging out" in the Bahamas, and it

looks like it will be at least 12 hours before she tips her hand, and it possibly could be as much as 24 hours. BUT, increasing it looks like the hurricane will strengthen only briefly to a weak Category 4 before beginning to decay in strength in a rather rapid decline. As slow as the movement is now, once JOAQUIN turns north, the forward speed will rapidly pick up. JOAQUIN will remain off-shore 90 miles from the tip of North Carolina. The east coast will experience some breezes and possible light-to-moderate rain. The hurricane should have very little impact on the FSU game Saturday or travel to or from he game.



However, the seas will be disturbed, and rain bands may extend to the shoreline.

The seas will be rough and rip currents are likely.


While it looks like JOAQUIN will miss a USA landfall, it is still possible in the extreme north.


This all could change if new data comes in to the contrary, but my analysis continues to point in the direction outline above.


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Old 10-01-2015, 05:46 PM   #34
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Have done no preps here in SE NC. Waiting on models to tighten up the track. Does not look too bad at this point, but still in the iffy category.
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Old 10-01-2015, 05:57 PM   #35
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I just finished doubling lines, padding pilings, pulling down canvas. I'm excited about the newest forecast - encouraging, at least!
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:07 PM   #36
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I just finished doubling lines, padding pilings, pulling down canvas. I'm excited about the newest forecast - encouraging, at least!
I would much, much rather get prepared and not have it come, than to not prepare and have it come! It could have been a bad one, and of course it ain't over until the fat lady sings, but things are looking up anyway.

Interesting thing (to me anyway) is that the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) computer model stuck to their guns even though all the other computer models disagreed with them. And now the others are agreeing with them. Just goes to show. Something.
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:52 PM   #37
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It's getting harder and harder to tell what it's going to do. Each successive spaghetti model is a wider and wider splatter. It could go almost anywhere. I feel worst for the Bahamas. It's just hanging down there ramping up higher and higher. 135mph winds now.
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Old 10-01-2015, 11:57 PM   #38
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I would much, much rather get prepared and not have it come, than to not prepare and have it come! It could have been a bad one, and of course it ain't over until the fat lady sings, but things are looking up anyway.

Interesting thing (to me anyway) is that the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) computer model stuck to their guns even though all the other computer models disagreed with them. And now the others are agreeing with them. Just goes to show. Something.
Going back for more than a decade, the ECMWF has consistently been the most accurate. A huge situation that everything in the US had wrong and they had right from the outset was Sandy. That's where our services should be asking themselves how ECMWF knew and they didn't.

This storm is also similar to Sandy in some ways so far in that the damage appears likely to come more from flooding than winds.
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Old 10-02-2015, 06:40 AM   #39
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The Gov of NJ declared the state in an emergency , so his good buddy Obama can start the federal cash flowing.
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Old 10-02-2015, 06:50 AM   #40
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The Gov of NJ declared the state in an emergency , so his good buddy Obama can start the federal cash flowing.
Yeah, aid was so unneeded last time.

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