OP
OP
Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter 101TUG
- Start date
The friendliest place on the web for anyone who enjoys boating.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
I thought of that earlier. And television and news. It wasn't nearly that long ago that many of the other countries and islands got no advanced warning. Even Haiti in their recent flood, a sizable percentage of their population had no advance warning. It's a terrible thought to me to be getting hit by something and not knowing what was going on.
It's only a 12-1/2 hour drive from Miami to NOLA in normal traffic. Seems like a good excuse to go...this cool front is perfect timing. Plus all the rain from Harvey rinsed the whole place out after a long summer of...well..."life" in the Quarter.
OP
OP
101TUG
Senior Member
i just get some news the eye directly on ST Barth
this is totally apocalyptic every place they are survival mode
fire station under 3 feet of water
the office of emergency general organisation is out of order
totally disaster
this is totally apocalyptic every place they are survival mode
fire station under 3 feet of water
the office of emergency general organisation is out of order
totally disaster
sdowney717
Guru
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2016
- Messages
- 2,264
- Location
- United States
- Vessel Name
- Old Glory
- Vessel Make
- 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
Saint-Martin must be destroyed.
Someone was tweeting from a concrete stairwell about the screaming wind.
And is like an apocalyptic horror movie.
Interesting that he could still tweet!
Hurricane Irma: Strongest ever Atlantic storm makes landfall in Caribbean - latest news
Someone was tweeting from a concrete stairwell about the screaming wind.
And is like an apocalyptic horror movie.
Interesting that he could still tweet!
Hurricane Irma: Strongest ever Atlantic storm makes landfall in Caribbean - latest news
Last edited:
kev_rm
Senior Member
I think we can all appreciate the hard work and skill involved in the forecasting - and the importance of being conservative - but Its interesting to me NOAA and the other providers don't publish information about their historical accuracy. Just looking a wind probabilities, the sheer area even at 20% probability appears to be 100 to 1000 times as large as the actual area that will be affected.
psneeld
Guru
But you cant look just at area, you have to look at how far off a given track the percentages are. Its the deviation that matters, not the area swept out. The areas are just probabilities should the forecast be way off.
The forecast areas seem very similar to search areas for a lost boat. Put in terms I understand, yet probably similar to storm forcasting because of weather factors affecting a drifting boat/person (which are even usually different) As the uncertainty of drift direction goes on with time, the probability cones get wider and wider even if your estimates are only a few degrees off. Nothing majical, just math.
Benthic2
Guru
They seem pretty transparent about it. The following statement is included in the discussion notes:
"Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively."
Ski in NC
Technical Guru
Steve- Grand Dunes should be a good place to hole up. It should get little surge up there, but the current in the center of the ICW could get very strong. Try to get an inside slip vs tying up on the face dock. The ditch is narrow, but if wind aligns with it, it will get rough. Boats on the face dock could get beat.
I think the piles for the floating docks are pretty high, so the floaters should be safe. Try to get in a slip where you can tie to both sides and stretch boat between the floaters. Even tie to the boat next to you if applicable.
Tie tight to floaters, tie loose to piles. Dockhands there should know the drill and give you good guidance.
Yep, empty the fridge, keep shore power and charger on, check all bilge pumps by flipping the floats.
menzies
Guru
My boat is up on the hard over at Lambs Yacht Center, all the work now completed. They are starting to lift all of their hurricane contracted boats tomorrow morning. Which means Sonas will be stuck back there until they are all put back in.
So I told them to launch her first thing tomorrow and I will come get her. She is safer here with me.
So I told them to launch her first thing tomorrow and I will come get her. She is safer here with me.
Yep ... and potential weakening ...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060236.shtml
sunchaser
Guru
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2008
- Messages
- 10,196
- Location
- usa
- Vessel Name
- sunchaser V
- Vessel Make
- DeFever 48 (sold)
I note Richard Branson is staying put in his multi million dollar island bunker and blaming climate change for Irma's potential ferocity. Politics as usual will get involved.
Good to see Harvey remediation efforts are dealing with fixing things as opposed to Katrina style finger pointing. Hopefully Irma's long lead time notifications will keep the "whose to blame" nonsense to a minimum.
Good to see Harvey remediation efforts are dealing with fixing things as opposed to Katrina style finger pointing. Hopefully Irma's long lead time notifications will keep the "whose to blame" nonsense to a minimum.
menzies
Guru
cardude01
Guru
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2012
- Messages
- 5,290
- Location
- USA
- Vessel Name
- Bijou
- Vessel Make
- 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Yeah really. I know I'm probably the pot calling the kettle black here, but let's try to leave politics out of this and focus on helping fellow boaters who need help with this storm.
Now who wants to drive to the center of Florida let my jib down for me? [emoji23]
Now who wants to drive to the center of Florida let my jib down for me? [emoji23]
MurrayM
Guru
This got me looking up record non tornado surface wind speeds. Not a record I'd like to come near 
"The fastest wind speed not related to tornadoes ever recorded was during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996: an automatic weather station on Barrow Island, Australia, registered a maximum wind gust of 408 km/h (220 kn; 253 mph; 113 m/s)"
Wikipedia
"The fastest wind speed not related to tornadoes ever recorded was during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996: an automatic weather station on Barrow Island, Australia, registered a maximum wind gust of 408 km/h (220 kn; 253 mph; 113 m/s)"
Wikipedia
sdowney717
Guru
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2016
- Messages
- 2,264
- Location
- United States
- Vessel Name
- Old Glory
- Vessel Make
- 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
Storm track projection moving east.
Potentially coming into Carolinas or even Virginia where I am.
Very uncertain where it decides to hit . Could make multiple landfalls off our coasts.
Potentially coming into Carolinas or even Virginia where I am.
Very uncertain where it decides to hit . Could make multiple landfalls off our coasts.
sdowney717
Guru
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2016
- Messages
- 2,264
- Location
- United States
- Vessel Name
- Old Glory
- Vessel Make
- 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
This got me looking up record non tornado surface wind speeds. Not a record I'd like to come near
"The fastest wind speed not related to tornadoes ever recorded was during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996: an automatic weather station on Barrow Island, Australia, registered a maximum wind gust of 408 km/h (220 kn; 253 mph; 113 m/s)"
Wikipedia
on news yesterday on Weather Channel, Irma had wind gusts of 212 mph as recorded from the hurricane tracking airplane. I think that would blow you right off your feet into the air.
sunchaser
Guru
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2008
- Messages
- 10,196
- Location
- usa
- Vessel Name
- sunchaser V
- Vessel Make
- DeFever 48 (sold)
As you mentioned in a previous post, hotel sex during a hurricane is worth talking about. That said, if you take the time to read what Richard Branson is posting on his Island's preparations some things can be learned. Many things.
Last edited:
menzies
Guru
Just leave it would you. Or go start a separate thread in OTDE.
Benthic2
Guru
The pressure has gone up for each of the last 2 advisories...that's encouraging
Planobilly
Veteran Member
I went to Marathon yesterday and took my boat out of the water. I just finished putting up the storm shutters on my house here in Homestead.
I am considering leaving tonight but there is no fuel in the gas stations here at the moment. I have a full tank in my truck which will take me about 300 miles. With all the people leaving and the real possibility of more forced evacuations I wonder if there will be enough fuel on the road.
I live about a 1.5 miles inland and there are no other houses between and the ocean.
I am not sure what will be safer???
Billy
I am considering leaving tonight but there is no fuel in the gas stations here at the moment. I have a full tank in my truck which will take me about 300 miles. With all the people leaving and the real possibility of more forced evacuations I wonder if there will be enough fuel on the road.
I live about a 1.5 miles inland and there are no other houses between and the ocean.
I am not sure what will be safer???
Billy
FF
Guru
- Joined
- Oct 12, 2007
- Messages
- 22,552
"I am not sure what will be safer???"
What will your front yard look like if the ocean rises 10-15 or 20 ft?
Feet dry ? , not much debris to be airborne nearby , you should be fine if living sans electric is no problem.
What will your front yard look like if the ocean rises 10-15 or 20 ft?
Feet dry ? , not much debris to be airborne nearby , you should be fine if living sans electric is no problem.
Benthic2
Guru
Did you home survive Andrew ?
Have any orders been issued for your area? I'd suggest locating your home on this map as part of your decision.
https://www.miamidade.gov/fire/library/evacuation-zone-map.pdf
Zones A and B are the ones that may be issued evacuation orders.
I believe most, if not all of Homestead is in a Zone A or B. Indication is evacuation orders may be issued later today or tomorrow morning.
Only you can know what is right for you, but if you're ordered to evacuate, it probably makes sense to do so. The issue is where to go. Shelters will be set up and may be the best choice unless you have friends or family in safer zones. Hotels are going to be problematic on the evacuation route. I don't know how fuel will be. I'd think better availability the further you go but perhaps long lines. It appears you have enough fuel to make it to Orlando?
You can sign up here for alerts:
Miami-Dade County - Alerts - Welcome to Miami-Dade Alerts
Here is a map that shows expected surge in your area based on hurricane Category. In your area you will see that at CAT 1, you're talking up to 3', at CAT 3 you're up to 9' and at CAT 5 you're over 9'.
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1
sbu22
Guru
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 1,253
- Location
- US
- Vessel Name
- Panache
- Vessel Make
- Viking 43 Double Cabin '76
Wifey B: Boy these things give you such mixed feelings. I don't want it hitting me, but I don't want it hitting anyone.
There's a bunch of people down here feeling the same way. Subject of some discussion in my circle. Wishing it doesn't come here, while knowing that means some other poor person is going to get it in the neck. I rationalize it by knowing that if you live on the SE or Gulf coast long enough, you're going to get your turn in the barrel.
There's a bunch of people down here feeling the same way. Subject of some discussion in my circle. Wishing it doesn't come here, while knowing that means some other poor person is going to get it in the neck. I rationalize it by knowing that if you live on the SE or Gulf coast long enough, you're going to get your turn in the barrel.
sbu22
Guru
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 1,253
- Location
- US
- Vessel Name
- Panache
- Vessel Make
- Viking 43 Double Cabin '76
Benthic (re: post 119) - here's a good read on the Galvestion hurricane of 1900 that speaks to the state of the art in those days: Isaac's Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History; Erik Larson
