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Old 09-04-2017, 02:00 PM   #21
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Grande Dunes is full? That's a first.
Ok Port City in Wilmington has slips available but only after this weekend because they have a boat show scheduled. Of course. So we are on the books for that.

Grande Dunes is full but I called back and pleaded and she said she'll squeeze me in.

Thank God.
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Old 09-04-2017, 02:08 PM   #22
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NWS now predicts that Irma will hit St. Martin tomorrow. Wonder if 101TUG is back from BVI. Gustavia did not strike me as much of a hurricane hole.
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Old 09-04-2017, 02:41 PM   #23
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Unless some weather happens real soon Tx. could be in for another one.
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Old 09-04-2017, 03:37 PM   #24
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Loons Nest is on the hard in St Marys GA. We are supposed to join her and launch mid-September. Hmmmm - watching closely.
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Old 09-04-2017, 03:54 PM   #25
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Miami has started hurricane prep. I went to Lowes today. They were pretty busy. Everyone seemed to have a gas can.

I'm about to go see if my generator will start. It should, I've never run it on gasoline, just propane. I'm pissed because I ordered a whole house generator two months ago and they still haven't installed it.

Not too worried about Possum. She is way up the Miami river behind my old store.

There are various levels of storm surge evacuation zones, A through E. I'm in a zone C. Zone A is right along the coast and includes all of Miami Beach and Key Biscane.
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Old 09-04-2017, 05:00 PM   #26
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Miami has started hurricane prep. I went to Lowes today. They were pretty busy. Everyone seemed to have a gas can.

I'm about to go see if my generator will start. It should, I've never run it on gasoline, just propane. I'm pissed because I ordered a whole house generator two months ago and they still haven't installed it.

Not too worried about Possum. She is way up the Miami river behind my old store.

There are various levels of storm surge evacuation zones, A through E. I'm in a zone C. Zone A is right along the coast and includes all of Miami Beach and Key Biscane.
In Fort Lauderdale, anything east of the ICW is zone A and between the ICW and highway 1 is zone B. Zone A may be evacuated for any hurricane, zone B only for CAT 3's or above.
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Old 09-04-2017, 05:05 PM   #27
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Cape fear boatworks in Wilmington/Navassa NC may be able to do a hurricane haul. They have a lot of dirt availble to set boats on the hard.
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Old 09-04-2017, 05:59 PM   #28
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This could get really, really ugly for Florida. Normally a storm hits the east coast at an angle and the damage is limited to the diameter of the storm. Winds diminish substantially as you go out from the center, and are considerably less on the southwest side of the eye. Once the eye is over land, it weakens further.
This storm could make landfall right on the tip of the Florida Pennisula and travel right up middle of the state. There is no elevation in FL to interupt the motion, and the bottom third of the state is all swamp land so the storm could still build or maintain strength from the warm water of the Everglades. That would put the most damaging quadrant of the storm right over the huge population centers of Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Delray, and West Palm. I don't think that's ever happened before but the potential for loss here could be bigger than Andrew. I know this is the worst case scenario out of many, and lots can change over the next week, but ...the potential is there.
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Old 09-04-2017, 06:44 PM   #29
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Very true, Benthic. We're now in NC and flying home tomorrow. At this point there are paths that have it first making US landfall anywhere from Mississippi to Connecticut. I've seen the one with the path you described. I would think it would gradually lose strength with that path. Still would be devastating and would show how much we (I say we although I wasn't here) learned from Andrew. Our house was built post-Andrea although even the homes in our area built in the 50's and 60's seem well equipped as most have changed their windows and roof over that time and chosen more insurance friendly types. Between insurance savings and electricity savings, hurricane windows pay for themselves in a relatively short period of time.
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Old 09-04-2017, 06:56 PM   #30
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If we stayed in Florida I would have gone with the hurricane rated windows. Living in West Palm, I had to deal with the galvanized metal panels for Jeanne and Frances in 2004, but I was glad I had them. (We traded hurricanes for blizzards and moved north in 2005)
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Old 09-04-2017, 07:47 PM   #31
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Another place to try in Wilmington, NC is Bennett Brothers on the Cape Fear River.
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:01 PM   #32
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I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:09 PM   #33
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I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?
Yes, both of those plus the water temperature. For us the warm Gulf Stream helps as storms off the Florida East Coast tend to follow the warm water all else being equal - and that curves away from us up here!

http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:09 PM   #34
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I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?
For the east coast of the US it's the Bermuda High and the jet stream that seem to steer them. The weaker the Bermuda High the sooner they turn north. Unfortunately the Bermuda High is feeling pretty strong right now.
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:28 PM   #35
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Anything I should or shouldn't tell my insurance company?
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:45 PM   #36
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This is a part of the "discussion" that the NHC posts with their updates. This discusses some of the steering forces for Irma: ( source: Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion)

Irma has been moving a little south of due west today, and the
longer-term motion estimate is 265/11 kt. The hurricane will
reach the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is
centered over the central Atlantic later today or tonight. This
should result in a westward, then west-northwestward turn over the
next 24 to 36 hours. This motion is expected to bring the hurricane
near or over the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. A large mid-latitude trough that is predicted to deepen
over the eastern U.S. during the next few days is forecast to lift
northeastward late in the week, which is expected to cause the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to build westward.
As a result, Irma is predicted to remain on a general
west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5. The dynamical
model guidance is in excellent agreement through 72 hours, with
some increase in spread late in the period, however the typically
more reliable ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement through day
5, and the new NHC track forecast lies very close to those models.
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Old 09-04-2017, 08:45 PM   #37
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Anything I should or shouldn't tell my insurance company?
Like what?

You should have told them everything they wanted at policy writing time.

Trust me, they know a lot more than you about the storm and its potential impact of their coverages in the path!
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:55 PM   #38
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Gustavia is the farthest thing you can imagine from a hurricane hole, Most days its got a swell. And you can roll your guts out in the anchorage. Totaly open wnw to North
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:00 PM   #39
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Anguila hurricane hole
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:01 PM   #40
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Got back today after a week of running my company's command center supporting our operations in and around Houston. Bringing in about 450 employees from Oklahoma, Arkansas, NC/SC and other states. Been working pretty much 24/7 during that time but had a light at the end of the tunnel in knowing that come today I would fly back home to Jupiter, FL and spend the next two-three days off resting. Wrong. Boat is in a little hurricane hole marina surrounded by residential condos but around the corner from and very close to Jupiter Inlet. Have put off buying new dock lines since getting the boat but went into overdrive and have about $1,100 worth coming on Thursday. Haven't ever had a boat in the water for a hurricane but dockmaster is prepared to help me out some. Luckily 35 year old son is visiting and will help with hurricane shutters at home. Maybe it will turn and not be too big a problem for us up here north of West Palm. Maybe but not betting on it.
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