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Old 12-29-2010, 02:34 PM   #1
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Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

There is a fuel price thread running on T&T. I am wondering what high fuel prices bode for trawler sales?

I have been told that my boat is not selling because those who want it are old f**ts and that the OF"s are holding on to what money they have left after the stock market decline.

I have been told that younger people who have "cash flow" (remember when that term applied to you?) want a faster boat because they are still working and time is money.

Seems like I am in the wrong place at the wong time to sell my boat. I remember, however, that back in the 70's and 80's there were some fuel availability and price problems which helped trawler and sailboat sales. ..so maybe history is repeating itself.

Should I hope for $5.00 diesel?

-- Edited by Doc on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 03:36:08 PM

-- Edited by Doc on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 03:37:04 PM
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Old 12-29-2010, 02:47 PM   #2
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Quote:
Doc wrote:

There is a fuel price thread running on T&T. I am wondering what high fuel prices bode for trawler sales?

I have been told that my boat is not selling because those who want it are old f**ts and that the OF"s are holding on to what money they have left after the stock market decline.

I have been told that younger people who have "cash flow" (remember when that term applied to you?) want a faster boat because they are still working and time is money.

Seems like I am in the wrong place at the wong time to sell my boat. I remember, however, that back in the 70's and 80's there were some fuel availability and price problems which helped trawler and sailboat sales. ..so maybe history is repeating itself.

Should I hope for $5.00 diesel?

-- Edited by Doc on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 03:36:08 PM

-- Edited by Doc on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 03:37:04 PM
Doc,* all used boat prices are depressed right now.* I have heard brokers say that the faster boats are not selling because of high fuel prices.* This is not a scientific study, but I happen to have a little current, first hand experiene in markets.* Whether it is boats or housing or anything else, most people are looking for distressed sales.* The bottom feeders are out.* As long as forclosures abound in the marine and real estate markets, there will probably be no relief.* I would think that trawlers are holding their value better than faster power boats.* Maybe some of the brokers here can shoot holes in my observations.

*
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Old 12-29-2010, 02:48 PM   #3
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

A former pres of Shell Oil Co. said today that he expects gas prices to be at $5 a gallon by 2012.***
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Old 12-29-2010, 08:13 PM   #4
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Doc,
as fuel prices go up, trawlers become the vehicle of choice for those that love boats and boating. My previous boat ,as you know from BE, burned 50-60 GPH at WOT, my trawler burns 1.5 GPH at hull speed. I no longer care about fuel prices. I am young (relatively speaking) for trawler ownership so I am the exception to the rule that young folks want fast boats. Reality is, regardless of where you boat, 95% of boaters stay within 30 minutes cruise of their home marina, assuming decent anchorages are available. Speed is a perception of some boaters...but if you are less than a mile from your home berth, what the heck does it matter if you get there in 30 minutes or 10 minutes?
OF, generally speaking, want fuel economy. Many folks are not doing the loop right now though due to market conditions and their losses in the stock market. Boats are selling and selling quickly when priced correctly so if yours is not selling it is either in bad shape (which I doubt) or priced too high or not high enough market exposure for buyers to find your boat.

Bottom line though- if fuel goes to $5+ per gallon, fuel efficient vessels will only become more compelling to those that love boating.
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Old 12-29-2010, 09:39 PM   #5
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Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Buying a boat that burns 2 or 3 times as much fuel as my present boat makes my search go kinda flat. I have been useing $5 a gal for projections on future cruising/fuel needs.
Maybe I got it right the first time???? W China and India having huge increases in their fuel needs maybe we will be WISHING fuel was only $5. soon.


-- Edited by nomadwilly on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 10:41:09 PM
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Old 12-29-2010, 10:08 PM   #6
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Quote:
nomadwilly wrote:

Buying a boat that burns 2 or 3 times as much fuel as my present boat makes my search go kinda flat. I have been useing $5 a gal for projections on future cruising/fuel needs.
Maybe I got it right the first time???? W China and India having huge increases in their fuel needs maybe we will be WISHING fuel was only $5. soon.


-- Edited by nomadwilly on Wednesday 29th of December 2010 10:41:09 PM
Nomad,* It seems to me your boat is about as efficient a powerboat as one can get. Besides it looks great and you know it well.** You do not have to part with any of your money to keep it.* Also you do not have to guess the wisdom of your investment in another boat.* Seems there are a lot of folks out there that would rather have cash then their boat.* It is great for buying but you have to make sure you don't feel the way they do if things continue to go down. I would love a bigger,faster, newer boat but for now I think I will just enjoy what I have and conserve my assets.** Your boat is unique and I think a keeper.* My 2 cents.

JohnP
*
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Old 12-30-2010, 04:28 AM   #7
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Sadly folks have been sold the bill of goods that a declining asset , a dirt house , is their biggest "investment".

Even tho reality shows that from 1895 to 1995 house prices simply followed the intentional destruction of the national currency , the usual inflationary spurts made folks feel "richer".

Called the wealth effect , it loosened many wallets as house demand went up from Fanny and Freddy "qualifying" folks that made $17,000 to invest in $750,000 homes.

Today the folks are retrenching , and getting rid of as much debt as they can, so an open wallet "lets get a 60 fter" is tame for a while.

IF the inflation can be started as the "QE" attempt is trying to do , house prices will go up measured in our dieing currency , the value of national debt will be cut by 20-25% per year , the coat of medicare and state pensions will decline the same percentage.

Till the "wage & price controls" are installed.
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Old 12-30-2010, 06:39 AM   #8
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

By now most people know a house can go down in value.

In the years before the bubble burst most people saw great gains in home values.

If you got a Heloc and spent your gain you could be hurting now.

If you cashed out and sold your home you probably made a bundle.

Our house (home) is paid off so its value is not a real issue to us.

The high New Jersey property Tax is an issue -* I feel like I am just paying rent.

Leaving NJ will never happen- So the Admiral has said.

Okay off my Soapbox.

Happy New Year**** John and Miri*** IG32 #25*** "Adagio"**** New Jersey
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Old 12-30-2010, 07:07 AM   #9
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Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

I always try to cruise on a rising tide.* Unfortunately, it's usually works out to be a rising tide of fuel prices.* I feel like Rodney Dangerfield when he said, " I went to McDonald's.* They said that I didn't deserve a break today".

-- Edited by Moonstruck on Thursday 30th of December 2010 08:07:51 AM
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Old 12-30-2010, 07:22 AM   #10
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

I think the Shell exec is full of it. The price per barrel would have to SKYROCKET for $5/gal to be the norm. I just don't see that happening in less than a year or two. I mean, I must admit it COULD happen, but I find it very unlikely. America uses SO MUCH oil, that we really drive the market in a big way. Once the price gets up to an intolerable level, our demand drops significantly and the oil companies (and the stock market) will quickly find a way to get supply and demand back in check. That's just my opinion (based on what happened when Katrina hit) and not based at all on any formal edjumication.
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Old 12-30-2010, 07:31 AM   #11
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

We paid $4.78/gallon when we took on 400 gallons on May 22, 2008.* That was after we called every fuel*dock and fuel dealer on Lake Washington/Lake Union, WA.* That was good for over 1500 miles.* In the over all picture I'm not sure it would change much for us.
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Old 12-30-2010, 10:45 AM   #12
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

I filled up in Daytona Beach yesterday at 3.09 per gallon on the way back from the paint shop. *I was nearly ecstatic that I beat the increase that came on the next boat (3.28). *They say that they will be going up again with the next delivery. *I never imagined I'd be celebrating 3.09 per gallon, and what I'm afraid of is that we'll get used to seeing (and paying) 3+, 4+ and on and on.
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Old 12-30-2010, 12:11 PM   #13
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

I can't see paying much more than $5.00 per gal for diesel.

vegetable oil is about $5.00 per gallon.

Diesel will run on veg oil.

SD
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Old 12-30-2010, 12:24 PM   #14
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Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

The cost of fuel is still down on the list of our boat expenses. We cruise about 150 hours per year which runs about $3,000. Our annual boat expense averages about $22,000 (insurance, slip fees, maintenance, fuel, I could go on and on). These average expenditures include the occasional "big cost" like fuel tank replacement, etc. Some years our cost is a small fraction of the above. I never loose much sleep over fuel cost. I wouldn't have a boat if it meant sitting in a slip...!

Ray
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-- Edited by Giggitoni on Thursday 30th of December 2010 07:25:31 PM
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:43 PM   #15
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Marine diesel in Houma, Louisiana on the GICW is $2.67 today, a year ago it was 2.25.
Steve W
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Old 12-30-2010, 08:19 PM   #16
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Steve, that is very good pricing!
I really am not worried about fuel prices at all. One of the compelling reasons we went the trawler route with our Monk is the freedom from worry about fuel price fluctuations. Burning only 1.5 GPH it really doesn't matter if I paid $3 or $5 per gallon. Now when I had my sedan last year that could burn 55 GPH, trust me, fuel prices MATTERED!!
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Old 12-31-2010, 07:10 AM   #17
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Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Quote:
KJ wrote:

A former pres of Shell Oil Co. said today that he expects gas prices to be at $5 a gallon by 2012.
Anybody want to revisit that single engine cruise with a twin thread.

http://www.trawlerforum.com/index.sp...picID=38913265

*


-- Edited by timjet on Friday 31st of December 2010 08:11:23 AM
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Old 12-31-2010, 06:51 PM   #18
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Woodsong: *That's a great way to think about it, although I'm sure my mood is better at 3 bucks than at 5 bucks, no different than it would be better at 1 buck than it is at 3 bucks. *But I like your philosophy of thinking about it "per hour" which I take you to mean "per hour of enjoyment". *That way, not having to be somewhere at sometime is not even an element of the conversation. *My truck goes 75 miles in an hour, burning 6 or so gallons in that hour with no where near the level of enjoyment I have burning my Krogen's 1.8 GPH at 6 knots. *It seems like an important perspective to have, doesn't it?

Of course, there are the other costs and labor involved in that hour of enjoyment, but if one enjoys changing out the head plumbing and such, ....


But getting back to Fuel Prices and Repeating History, it's true, the situation may be repeating, but I'm not.
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Old 12-31-2010, 08:55 PM   #19
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

Hustler,
"per hour of enjoyment"**** ... I love it. That's me, however I'd like to get to my next chosen anchorage*** BEFORE dark.
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Old 01-01-2011, 04:19 AM   #20
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RE: Fuel Prices. Is History Repeating Itself?

America uses SO MUCH oil,

The reality is 85% of the US energy is locked up and not able to be used.

Heck the current nightmare to lock it up as parkland means it cant even be looked for.

A buck a gallon is one congress away , IF we choose.

Right now the last 1% in air police rules causes cars and trucks to loose 15% in fuel Milage, on top of the 10% for the corn farmers Ethanol.

IF we allowed cars to be 98% better at air discharge , rather than 99% of 1970's we could easily reduce our fuel bills (in time) by 15 to 20%.

That would effect world fuel prices !
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