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Old 07-31-2015, 11:01 AM   #81
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USCG to hold news conference today at noon.
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Old 07-31-2015, 11:18 AM   #82
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USCG to hold news conference today at noon.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:10 PM   #83
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USCG suspending search at sunset.

I do believe a part of the meeting yesterday was to give the family advance warning that this was likely to happen soon and in this time frame.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:21 PM   #84
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Sure not much to say.....though I think there was discussion of a storm in one newsreport I read...wonder how much research was put into that end of it?

If a storm or more went through the area the boys might have been. ....it may shed some light on an overturned boat at least.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:45 PM   #85
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I don't know if any of you are participating in the search, but if you are - or would like to - the reporter from WPTV in West Palm just said the following:

Per @BrianEntin, WPTV reporter, message from families, if you want to join searches, land, sea, or air, contact findperryandaustin@gmail.com

I have just volunteered, and am more than willing to come over from Ft. Myers to be a set of eyes and ears. If you have a boat and would like to add me as a crew dog for the weekend, please PM me.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:51 PM   #86
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Sure not much to say.....though I think there was discussion of a storm in one newsreport I read...wonder how much research was put into that end of it?

If a storm or more went through the area the boys might have been. ....it may shed some light on an overturned boat at least.
The fishermen in the area reported a storm. Sounded like a rather typical South Florida storm. The only working theory I've heard to this point is:

1. They were going outside, where they aren't supposed to and to the parents' knowledge normally don't. Bahamas rumors but not confirmed.

2. May have had engine problems as cover was removed.

3. Unable to motor, got caught in a wave and flipped.

4. Due to swiftness of current in gulf stream were unable to get back to the boat.

The investigation really just gets full speed now. The reality is that we may never know. For the family, the grief is also just starting. Acceptance will have to come at some point and then mourning. To this point they've been focused on recovery. Then on top of that a legal process that serves as a harsh reminder. It's not as important with kids, but with adults getting them legally declared as dead can take years and it puts families into arguing what they hate most to think.

I'm sure there will be outrage from all directions. Outrage the search is stopped. Outrage over boating laws. Outrage toward the parents. I hate that aspect where a tragic event is capitalized upon for pushing agendas. Yes, I know things I would have done differently and I'm sure the parents have thought constantly about how they might have prevented it. But the reality is we can't protect kids from all risks and especially if we want them to live full lives. There are tens of thousands of kids on football fields (American football) and it's a far more risky sport than boating or fishing. As parents, we do our best and, sometimes, it's just not good enough. But that doesn't mean we failed. It means something horrible happened.

The worst loss by far anyone can ever experience in life is the loss of a child. Many never get though it. I don't know that I could. Just typing this and imagining losing someone who isn't even technically our child brings tears. And I also have tears for what those parents are going through.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:52 PM   #87
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I don't know if any of you are participating in the search, but if you are - or would like to - the reporter from WPTV in West Palm just said the following:

Per @BrianEntin, WPTV reporter, message from families, if you want to join searches, land, sea, or air, contact findperryandaustin@gmail.com

I have just volunteered, and am more than willing to come over from Ft. Myers to be a set of eyes and ears. If you have a boat and would like to add me as a crew dog for the weekend, please PM me.
The primary search area is probably off South and North Carolina now....but mopping up a huge search area can involve investigating anomolies.
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Old 07-31-2015, 12:59 PM   #88
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Actually...

1. the motor cover could have and probably came off after the boat flipped,

2. piw drift as fast as the current so if the boat had flipped staying with it isn't hard except in a bad storm,

3 And there is no real investigation further on the USCG end that I know of unless asked by someone astronomically high up the food chain..maybe Law Enforcement will..but I haven't heard of many after action investigations at all, unless foul play was suspected...and no leaks of that as of yet.

Outrage the search has stopped?..well it will roll off the backs of the pros that did their job and did it well...we will see what the weaker segment of government does. There will be more outrage by the populous to continue a search after the pros call it off and any taxpayers money go into it....been there, done that....got the retirement hat.
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Old 07-31-2015, 01:00 PM   #89
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The primary search area is probably off North Carolina now....but mopping up a huge search area can involve investigating anomolies.
Agree. I would expect that searching from Ponce Inlet up to JAX would be more for looking for the cooler, life jackets, bait bucket, etc.

Latest ROFFS report (7/31/2015):

Todays Update:

The eddy that we have been following southeast of Charleston, SC is centered near 7910W & 3155N. It continues to move northeastward. There may be a smaller eddy (2-3 mile diameter) along the western boundary of the Gulf Stream by the eddy, but the clouds have prevented us from confirming this. It is likely to coalesce with the larger eddy and create more turbulence in the flow. Note that the elongated finger-filament of Gulf Stream now extends from 7900W & 3210N all the way back (southwest) to St. Augustine. The southern end is near 8045W & 3150N. The flow of the blended Gulf Stream water in the filament is southwestward to St. Augustine and a blend of this water with the coastal waters extend to Flagler Beach. Off Daytona Beach the water is moving northeastward. The boys could be in this elongated filament as they could still be rotating around the eddy. Note that there are two relatively smaller (2-3 mile diameter) eddy features moving northward between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville Beach and a smaller one yet east of Fernandina Beach, FL centered near 7930W & 3120N. This northernmost small eddy is likely to affect the shape and circulation of the eddy that the boys could be in. We do not think that the boys will be along the western boundary of the Gulf Stream south of 3100N. We anticipate that the eddy southeast of Charleston (centered near 7910W & 3155N) will continue to move in a northeast direction. However, we are uncertain if it will reach the Georgetown Hole fishing area (centered near 7835W & 3232N), or turn more eastward like many eddy features do. Note that the flow of the water east of Charleston, SC still is eastward.

Bottom Line:

The search area continues to increase considering the various movements of the water masses to carry the boys. We are now uncertain how much our analyses are assisting the search although we continue to receive calls asking for direction from pilots and boaters. Our best estimate is that the search should continue around the eddy area, the area where the eddy is traveling, as well as, the filament of blue water that extends southwestward to Jacksonville St. Augustine. If your reach is only off Flagler Beach, FL it is worth a look as well. IF the boys were not caught in the eddy circulation then they would be far east of Charleston, SC headed northward toward Cape Hatteras.

Again we are hopeful that these analyses will help people direct their search efforts to areas where there are increased chances for Austin and Perry to be found alive.
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Old 07-31-2015, 01:02 PM   #90
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I don't know if any of you are participating in the search, but if you are - or would like to - the reporter from WPTV in West Palm just said the following:

Per @BrianEntin, WPTV reporter, message from families, if you want to join searches, land, sea, or air, contact findperryandaustin@gmail.com

I have just volunteered, and am more than willing to come over from Ft. Myers to be a set of eyes and ears. If you have a boat and would like to add me as a crew dog for the weekend, please PM me.
I'm not familiar with how the private effort is being organized (I'm in Massachusetts at the moment), but the real primary targeted area would now be far north of Florida.

I see the next best hope of seeing them, if they're floating, the fishing fleets off the coast of NC, Hatteras, etc. I'm guessing the flow pattern would put them in that area in another couple of days. Unfortunately, the flow pattern spreads out considerably the further north you follow it.

From the USCG:
Together we covered an area just shy of 50-thousand-square-nautical miles (57,500 miles). It ranged from the Jupiter Inlet up to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and 270 miles to the east of Savannah, Georgia

Just giving perspective of how far north the target area would be now.
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Old 07-31-2015, 03:59 PM   #91
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Hard to say what the actual surface current has been without the data from the USCG datum marker observations.

There was a lot of NE and Easterly winds earlier this week off northern Florida and Ga.....at least that's what a couple buoy reports indicated (pretty sure). That may have caused a surface current pushing towards the coast..but now it is SW I believe.
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Old 07-31-2015, 04:10 PM   #92
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psneeld: I am sure they have people looking at that data. You are capable of accessing the buoy data and historical data associated with any of the NOAA buoys on the NOAA Buoy data website.

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Old 07-31-2015, 04:16 PM   #93
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psneeld: I am sure they have people looking at that data. You are capable of accessing the buoy data and historical data associated with any of the NOAA buoys on the NOAA Buoy data website.

dan
I did...the Gray's reef buoy off southern Georgia was the one I used....as far as the datum marker buoy info...I know the USCG was using it...just would like to know for the TF guestimations.
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Old 07-31-2015, 04:26 PM   #94
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Gray's reef buoy is a good one. The problem arises though that the Gulf Stream runs a pretty good ways offshore of Ga. and does get somewhat wider. I think that is what protects the Ga. coast from a lot of the Tropical Storms and Hurricanes it also keeps some of the many eyes that may be available nearer the coast from keeping an eye open for these boys.

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Old 07-31-2015, 06:20 PM   #95
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The CG quits at sundown today. RIP kids.
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Old 07-31-2015, 07:17 PM   #96
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Back in 1996, Tom Capano attempted to sink the body of his victim Anne Marie Fahey in an Igloo cooler about 70 miles off the beach in a couple thousand feet of water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Capano
The cooler wouldn't sink so he shot a hole in it with a shotgun. Still didn't sink so him and his brother wrapped her in 2 anchors and tossed the body. They let the cooler float away. It took almost a week before the cooler was found by local fishermen with a hole thru it.
My point is that there are a lot of fisherman in the Gulf Stream fishing this time of year up to the NC coast and the kids cooler should catch someones eye. Hopefully whoever finds it watches the news occasionally.
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Old 07-31-2015, 07:24 PM   #97
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The CG quits at sundown today. RIP kids.
Just because the CG quits at sundown does not mean the kids are dead.
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Old 07-31-2015, 07:33 PM   #98
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Just because the CG quits at sundown does not mean the kids are dead.
Maybe not dead but not findable other than pure luck....

After about day 2...the search area became so huge finding them not with the boat would be a near miracle...after 7....well, we all want to believe in miracles.

Plus....it is only an assumption the boys went into the water and remained near the boat from the very beginning. It's really the only thing to run with in this case...but even that doubt expands the circle of uncertainty even bigger...multiply that over 7 days...the numbers become astronomical (well almost) but certainly unsearchable based on reason.

Thus the CGs decision to stop searching ....probably pending further developments.

Not fluffy... just the hard facts coming from someone involved in flying on and or planning thousands of searches.
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Old 07-31-2015, 08:40 PM   #99
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Floating Debris

On March 8 2014, the MH370 B777 is believed to have gone down in the Indian ocean. A few days ago, a B777 flaperon washed up on Reunion Island in the east of the Indian Ocean. Not yet identified as a part of the MH plane it is unlikely come from anything else.
Sadly, while there may yet be debris found from the boys boat, their recovery looks less likely. But I recall several years ago a man being found alive in a large floating polystyrene cooler after several weeks.It took a while for anyone to accept the truth of his story.
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Old 07-31-2015, 09:04 PM   #100
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On March 8 2014, the MH370 B777 is believed to have gone down in the Indian ocean. A few days ago, a B777 flaperon washed up on Reunion Island in the east of the Indian Ocean. Not yet identified as a part of the MH plane it is unlikely come from anything else.
Sadly, while there may yet be debris found from the boys boat, their recovery looks less likely. But I recall several years ago a man being found alive in a large floating polystyrene cooler after several weeks.It took a while for anyone to accept the truth of his story.
There are miracle survival stories all the time...but as I posted before...at some pojnt...where do you keep looking? And just plain statistically...it becomes grasping at straws.

The world's rescue organizations that are well funded and trained have it pretty well figured out after more than a couple centuries at it.

Can search and rescue be done better? More effective? Yes...I certainly think so and used to get frowned at when I thought the USCG wasnt taking SAR seriously enough. The Morning Dew incident cemented many of my complaints. But for now, with the resources available, if those boys had been alive, floating, capable of even splashing as a signal, they had a pretty good chance of being found.
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