Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

[Bigsfish]

Actually I think they sensationalize. I remember Andrew and you never saw neighborhoods that appeared almost untouched except for tree damage but you saw hundreds of houses destroyed. Because that’s what people want to see, you don’t go to NASCAR to watch cars run on an oval, you go for the wrecks.

During Andrew I fielded many calls all saying the same thing, did I survive, how much damage. Yes and none. My house on the Atlantic in Key Largo was perfect. Amazing when I looked at the news I should have been dead with no property left. I understand the officials need to assume the worst to get people to move.

Then again could they get people to watch four days of weather if there was going to be no destruction.

Just my SSO

 

[Steve91T]

I’m in Myrtle Beach right now. Place is dead. The hotel is only open for us right now and they are closing up as soon as we leave in a couple of hours. I get that you don’t want to wait too long but it’s still a long ways away.

MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary.

 

[sdowney717]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/hurri...-3-storm-continues-its-assault-on-the-bahamas

Storm surge in Carolina's up to 12 foot maybe.
Dorian still churning over Grand Bahama.
Weakened but also may strengthen again before it heads north.
eventual landfalls all along outer banks.

Sure its all just a projection.

 

[menzies]

11:00 update now posted. It's still slow but starting to move. 320 degrees, just north of NW. Hopefully the 2pm update has it more towards 360.

Wind has also dropped.

LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

 

[FF]

With 24 hour cable "news" the old saw "If it Bleeds it Leads" is all they have.

Its going to be difficult to keep folks in refuges if the storm keeps going at a crawl, without fear stories

And really expensive to have 25,000 - 40,000 lineman on TDY with their equipment standing by.

The big worry is the next big breeze , folks will not heed the warnings.

 

[sdowney717]

Leaving your home, means its difficult to get back to it. they wont let you back home for days.

My brother, wife, kids and parents all live in Myrtle Beach. But not right on the shore. Last I heard they are staying there. 10 foot of surge, the house is going to barely flood. They are in an well off neighborhood off the grand strand.

 

[Action]

Its going to be difficult to keep folks in refuges if the storm keeps going at a crawl.

And really expensive to have 25,000 - 40,000 lineman on TDY with their equipment standing by.

It is difficult to be Goldilocks and have juuuust the right amount.
Given the choices of not enough or too much.
Too much will cost you on a line item that goes away pretty quickly.
Not enough will burn for a long time in more ways than just money.

 

[BandB]

Overreaction....

I hope so.

Yes, I hope that it's never as bad as the warnings on tv. They do present worst case. That saves lives.

They didn't overreact to Harvey or Michael or Matthew or Florence or Irma and likely saved lives in all those. What if the Bahamas had reacted the same as Charleston is to Dorian?

I would say all we read on this site about hurricane areas and hurricane planning is the same type overreaction as the news. The kind that protects people. Once again we have our boats prepared but Fort Lauderdale not getting hit. Is that bad? I don't think so. We closed all our stores yesterday and today. In Miami Dade and Broward today wasn't necessary, but we didn't know that yesterday and we'd rather employees worry about their families and, yes, they all get paid scheduled hours for these two days.

I'd rather those who need to prepare do so and those who turn out doing so unnecessarily then just breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[smitty477]

I’m in Myrtle Beach right now. Place is dead. The hotel is only open for us right now and they are closing up as soon as we leave in a couple of hours. I get that you don’t want to wait too long but it’s still a long ways away.

MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary.

"MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary."

How much notice do you think would be required to shut down an airport like this for equipment, staff and passengers?
What minimum lead time to make the decisions?

 

[Steve91T]

"MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary."

How much notice do you think would be required to shut down an airport like this for equipment, staff and passengers?
What minimum lead time to make the decisions?

Orlando is far enough inland that it’s never been a concern, or hasn’t been for the last few days.

 

[Steve91T]

Overreaction....

I hope so.

Yes, I hope that it's never as bad as the warnings on tv. They do present worst case. That saves lives.

They didn't overreact to Harvey or Michael or Matthew or Florence or Irma and likely saved lives in all those. What if the Bahamas had reacted the same as Charleston is to Dorian?

I would say all we read on this site about hurricane areas and hurricane planning is the same type overreaction as the news. The kind that protects people. Once again we have our boats prepared but Fort Lauderdale not getting hit. Is that bad? I don't think so. We closed all our stores yesterday and today. In Miami Dade and Broward today wasn't necessary, but we didn't know that yesterday and we'd rather employees worry about their families and, yes, they all get paid scheduled hours for these two days.

I'd rather those who need to prepare do so and those who turn out doing so unnecessarily then just breathe a sigh of relief.

I agree. My buddy who is getting kicked out of his vacation this morning in OBX doesn’t feel the same.

I get it though. Takes time to get people out of harms way.

 

[Scratchnsaw]

While the media and in particular the main voice for these storms the Weather Channel gets all noisy at a peak level, proper preparation is key if you wish to survive and live for another day n your own. Personally I started prepping a week ago, as this storm developed.

Its much easier that way and a lot more thorough than last minute running around. Start with the basic needs before all the panic folks think about it. Then advance up to taking care of your personal belongings if you plan on staying.

This is probably my 24th rodeo as the primary organizer, forgetting the number as a kid and witnessing similar acts. Each region has first responders that they themselves needs to take care of their own affairs and few leave the area no matter how bad the storm is expected to be.

Its always nice for individuals to say they plan on waiting until the last minute to leave an area. But that's just stupid, even if an area does not get hit. Sure the Weather Channel needs to sell commercials and get viewership. The more years they have been on the air the more they have gotten a bit out of control with a lot of their hype too.

But airlines also needs to get airplanes out of the way, as they have a ton more invested in their equipment than most anyone here have in any boat. Watching some of the videos that's already come in from the Abacos, you can see what can happen if you ignore warnings or wait too late to leave with boats.

But fuel is always a big issue and a run on it makes things even more difficult when you try to do everything at the last minute. To make matters worse, millions more people have moved to the water's edge. So the authorities are having to hurd more cats than in the past. So regional prepping has changed over the year with a longer time required to clear areas along the water out of non-essential folks. . We always hear those calls for help as storms are wrecking the place and no one can get to them without risking their own lives to save someone else from their own stupidity.


Its a nightmare to predict and make the right decisions as local leaders no matter how you play it.

 

[Steve91T]

While the media and in particular the main voice for these storms the Weather Channel gets all noisy at a peak level, proper preparation is key if you wish to survive and live for another day n your own. Personally I started prepping a week ago, as this storm developed.

Its much easier that way and a lot more thorough than last minute running around. Start with the basic needs before all the panic folks think about it. Then advance up to taking care of your personal belongings if you plan on staying.

This is probably my 24th rodeo as the primary organizer, forgetting the number as a kid and witnessing similar acts. Each region has first responders that they themselves needs to take care of their own affairs and few leave the area no matter how bad the storm is expected to be.

Its always nice for individuals to say they plan on waiting until the last minute to leave an area. But that's just stupid, even if an area does not get hit. Sure the Weather Channel needs to sell commercials and get viewership. The more years they have been on the air the more they have gotten a bit out of control with a lot of their hype too.

But airlines also needs to get airplanes out of the way, as they have a ton more invested in their equipment than most anyone here have in any boat. Watching some of the videos that's already come in from the Abacos, you can see what can happen if you ignore warnings or wait too late to leave with boats.

But fuel is always a big issue and a run on it makes things even more difficult when you try to do everything at the last minute. To make matters worse, millions more people have moved to the water's edge. So the authorities are having to hurd more cats than in the past. So regional prepping has changed over the year with a longer time required to clear areas along the water out of non-essential folks. . We always hear those calls for help as storms are wrecking the place and no one can get to them without risking their own lives to save someone else from their own stupidity.


Its a nightmare to predict and make the right decisions as local leaders no matter how you play it.

I get it. Closing MCO is a bit much. There are greater threats with summer storms than Dorian. And also closing MCO just shut down options for people to get out of FL. It will cause even more traffic on the highways. Could actually cause more problems for people’s safety than leaving it open.

 

[Scratchnsaw]

I get it. Closing MCO is a bit much. There are greater threats with summer storms than Dorian

Are you trolling for replies? You can't be serious. A blast from a summer storm is more of a threat than what just took place in the Abacos? Please explain.

 

[BandB]

I get it. Closing MCO is a bit much. There are greater threats with summer storms than Dorian. And also closing MCO just shut down options for people to get out of FL. It will cause even more traffic on the highways. Could actually cause more problems for people’s safety than leaving it open.

Wifey B: Did they close the airports in Birmingham yet?

 

[Steve91T]

Are you trolling for replies? You can't be serious. A blast from a summer storm is more of a threat than what just took place in the Abacos? Please explain.

No no not at all. Maybe I wasn’t clear. Orlando isn’t going to have severe weather or surge. And closing the airport actually strands people trying to get out.

 

[Action]

May be a practice of keeping an airport open just don't allow any flights back in. Similar to changing interstate to one way out. Or ordered an evacuation and allowing people to stay but once they leave there is no going back.

As for preparation - that might start with better standards for building (Abaco). I feel for those people. The ones that survived and the others. There is nearly nothing there. And then knowing that if you live in FLA or the coast it is a when not if question even if Dorian makes a hard right and goes out to sea. There are things that can be done in advance that are not perishable.
Where best to keep the non-perishable food?
Do I make plywood covers for the windows far in advance of any storm so I only have to deal with installation. Not purchase, make and install.
Do I keep a quantity of sand bags handy?
Or is there some landscaping I can do to mitigate possible flooding of the home?
Can I rig my home with solar lighting?
Do I have clothing that can deal with waist high water?
I am sure there are other things one can do in advance.
Most people won't think of that until a named storm is bearing down.

 

[dhays]

Curious about MCO closing... The elevation isn't all that low, just under 100' I think. If they get a lot of rain from a storm could drainage be an issue? Standing water on the runway? Could it be the possibility of Tropical Storm force winds? Could it also be issues related to continue support and service of the aircraft if the region in general has transportation or infrastructure problems related to wind or flooding?

 

[BandB]

No no not at all. Maybe I wasn’t clear. Orlando isn’t going to have severe weather or surge. And closing the airport actually strands people trying to get out.

Actually Orlando forecasts higher winds than Fort Lauderdale from the storm and that's based on the current forecasted track. With the earlier track, they were in a possible area of impact. They are only 36 miles from the coast.

Making those decisions involves a lot of people from airport management to airlines to weather service. I have been shocked in the past at early closures.

I know a school district that was embarrassed by cancelling a day of school for snow and they ended up with no snow. That led to them saying all future announcements would be at 6:30 AM. Well, the problem is that teachers head to school, parents make school and work decisions and buses leave the bus yard prior to that time.

I don't know what information Orlando based the closure on so really can't challenge their decision even though it surprised me. I know part of the process is looking at where flights are coming from and going to. With all three South Florida airports closed that would impact them.

 

[Scratchnsaw]

May be a practice of keeping an airport open just don't allow any flights back in. Similar to changing interstate to one way out. Or ordered an evacuation and allowing people to stay but once they leave there is no going back.

As for preparation - that might start with better standards for building (Abaco). I feel for those people. The ones that survived and the others. There is nearly nothing there. And then knowing that if you live in FLA or the coast it is a when not if question even if Dorian makes a hard right and goes out to sea. There are things that can be done in advance that are not perishable.
Where best to keep the non-perishable food?
Do I make plywood covers for the windows far in advance of any storm so I only have to deal with installation. Not purchase, make and install.
Do I keep a quantity of sand bags handy?
Or is there some landscaping I can do to mitigate possible flooding of the home?
Can I rig my home with solar lighting?
Do I have clothing that can deal with waist high water?
I am sure there are other things one can do in advance.
Most people won't think of that until a named storm is bearing down.

Well old school was that most all homes along coastal regions exposed on a regular basis by hurricanes did have hurricane shutters or plywood pieces fitted to the window frames ahead of time.

And now we have many different options pertaining to electrical power to run basic lighting. We actually have charging tubes the size of a double A battery that can be recharged by most all generators or from the USB port on the boat's control panel I actually have this setup on my simple cruiser and it works like a champ.

 

[Bigsfish]

Was Orlando expecting a blizzard? Perhaps 6 feet of snow?
Let me also say construction in the Abacos is not like SoFla. Right now the boat is getting hammered by 15-20 mph winds, no rain presently so we may survive.

 

[BandB]

I am sure there are other things one can do in advance.
Most people won't think of that until a named storm is bearing down.

Most people who live near the coast think of the things to be done years in advance. With us, part of moving here was hurricane planning. Even before that it was examining history and flood zones. We, and all our friends, have now been through it many times and are well prepared.

Now, for tourists it's a much different story. Many don't really understand hurricanes and probable effects and what needs to be done to prepare. They also don't understand that evacuations here only apply to small areas. While others may evacuate, there's no county wide evacuation. For those not used to the area, Miami Dade or Broward standards and hurricane windows and doors are all foreign concepts to be learned.

 

[menzies]

What if the Bahamas had reacted the same as Charleston is to Dorian?

I must say I am a bit puzzled by this comment.

What exactly do you mean by that!?

 

[smitty477]

Orlando is far enough inland that it’s never been a concern, or hasn’t been for the last few days.

So how far ahead do you think they need to make the decisions to stop bringing in equipment staff and passengers?

 

[menzies]

Meanwhile from an Abaco FB page.

UPDATE SEPTEMBER 3, 2019: Good Afternoon Abaco friends. We are now into the 3rd full day of the Abaco Crisis and the story is unfolding minute by minute. Let’s get right to it. Please understand, confirming information is very very challenging. So please note this is a best effort to get real information out to those following the crisis. We have finally received word out of TREASURE CAY. We are learning that 75% of all structures have been destroyed. Only concrete blocks remain standing in most locations. Remarkably, there are currently no reports of deaths. However, not all persons have been accounted for as of this morning. The TC clinic is reporting injuries. USCG is aware and in route to Treasure Cay and to Corbett Medical Clinic. Shelters in TC are the TC Community Center and the old RBC which are both packed to capacity. Weather conditions on scene continue to be bad for now. Rain with 3-500 ft ceilings and 50-70knt winds are giving search and rescue teams “white knuckle” flight missions. There are numerous private relief efforts under way in the U.S. Many of you have reached to me this morning. THANK YOU! THE PEOPLE OF ABACO NEED YOUR ASSISTANCE! All airports, with the exception to Sandy Point, are currently underwater and inaccessible (SEE MARSH HARBOR AIR FIELD VIDEO BELOW). The Bahamian Gov is not authorizing private aviation over the event area at this time. Please consult with the Bahamian Authorities prior to engaging in relief supply deployment. Great Abaco Highway from Marsh Harbor, South, to Sandy Point are impassable. S.C. Bootle Highway between Marsh Harbor and Treasure remain underwater and, in some areas, the road has been completely washed away (SOURCE: USCG RECON). Efforts should be made to restore access on these roads if at all possible. Sources on the ground in Marsh Harbor are saying this is turning into a humanitarian crisis as sea water continues to flood the areas. People are getting desperate and in need of basic necessities. Without airstrips, and a Cat 3 storm sitting between us, relief aid has become a challenging situation at best. Please continue to pray for the people of Abaco. And hold tight, God is on the move.

 

[Miz Trom]

In defense of the decision to close the Orlando Airport...

No no not at all. Maybe I wasn’t clear. Orlando isn’t going to have severe weather or surge. And closing the airport actually strands people trying to get out.

Bigsfish Was Orlando expecting a blizzard? Perhaps 6 feet of snow?

Some of us on this forum have lived in a hurricane zone all of their lives, some for many years. I now refer to what Scratch was talking about:


The kind of common sense you develop living in this zone.


You can second-guess and make snarky comments about the Orlando airport's decision to close yesterday, but to us hurricane zone veterans it is perfectly understandable.


Many hurricanes have taken sudden, unpredicted turns. Charlie in 2004 comes immediately to mind. For the past 5 days, Orlando was in "the cone." The airport manager had to consider not only the disruption to the airlines & passengers, but also the employees who keep the airport running.


The reality for AT LEAST 90% of Floridians is that they cannot afford to fly out of a hurricane's path, so I will politely disagree with your contention that closing the airport "strands" people, though I will admit that perhaps a handful of residents might wish to hop on a plane with a hurricane approaching.


I would NOT hop on a plane to escape a storm; that makes little sense if you own a home here in FL - the natural inclination is to get back to your home ASAP after the storm passes.


Steve, were you perhaps referring to tourists perhaps wanting to fly out? Hmm, all I can say is that the vast majority of Florida tourism occurs during the winter, not during hurricane season, and any tourists who were here during the past week had plenty of days with hurricane warnings to fly out of the hurricane zone and the hurricane "cone" if they had wanted to do so.


Two of the computer models still showed Dorian heading directly toward Orlando a couple of days ago.



Most of us old-time coasties first take every precaution to fortify our low-lying homes, and then if it becomes necessary, skedaddle to a shelter or a friend's house.


We've seen that the most horrific damage from a hurricane traveling inland is contained within a path between 25 and 35 miles wide.


We've seen that it is the storm surge that kills on the coast and bays and ICW.


We've seen that when a slow-moving hurricane dumps several feet of rain we will have additional tragic, more widespread problems.


I have no doubt that the Orlando Airport Manager took all this into consideration.


Respectfully,
Mrs. Trombley
Floridian, born and raised

 

[diver dave]

I"m in Flagler county currently, watching the power flicker, and now have the seawall cap submerged. Just now have grass under seawater. My MCO ticket now 2 day delay out of here.
Don't take this as whining, only informational.
Myself and related parties have a long history with Sweetings Cay, since 1986; Approx 200 residents. Probably have done 50 trips to just that island. It will be in bad shape for a while. I hope they all made if off in time. I had horrible visions of folks climbing the radio tower to escape the surge.

 

[menzies]

For those on FaceBook

https://www.facebook.com/groups/HopeTownBulletin/?tn-str=*F

 

[firstbase]

May be a practice of keeping an airport open just don't allow any flights back in. Similar to changing interstate to one way out. Or ordered an evacuation and allowing people to stay but once they leave there is no going back.

As for preparation - that might start with better standards for building (Abaco). I feel for those people. The ones that survived and the others. There is nearly nothing there. And then knowing that if you live in FLA or the coast it is a when not if question even if Dorian makes a hard right and goes out to sea. There are things that can be done in advance that are not perishable.
Where best to keep the non-perishable food?
Do I make plywood covers for the windows far in advance of any storm so I only have to deal with installation. Not purchase, make and install.
Do I keep a quantity of sand bags handy?
Or is there some landscaping I can do to mitigate possible flooding of the home?
Can I rig my home with solar lighting?
Do I have clothing that can deal with waist high water?
I am sure there are other things one can do in advance.
Most people won't think of that until a named storm is bearing down.

That's all well and good..if you have the money to cover it. Many there , Abco, Bahamas, don't.

 

[Larry M]

For those on FaceBook

https://www.facebook.com/groups/HopeTownBulletin/?tn-str=*F

Oh my goodness. The Coast Guard released this at around noon today. I’m not sure from where.