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Old 09-03-2019, 12:02 AM   #381
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That's pretty much what the Navy's forecast looks like. You'd assume USN/NOAA would be in sych. They usually are, but some interesting departures do occur from time to time.

Old saying, but applies to me when I'm in a storm's potential path - "Waiting for a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle." I get to the point I just want to get it over with, whatever the outcome.

I can't offer our Atlantic Coast brethen any more than solid empathy and good wishes at this juncture.
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Old 09-03-2019, 06:45 AM   #382
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5am update much better for the Florida east coast, still lots of uncertainty further north though. We even have friends cruising Halifax who are looking for options! Crazy.

And yes, the storm is still stationary - it hasn't moved for 18 hours now.
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Old 09-03-2019, 06:59 AM   #383
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5am update much better for the Florida east coast, still lots of uncertainty further north though. We even have friends cruising Halifax who are looking for options! Crazy.

And yes, the storm is still stationary - it hasn't moved for 18 hours now.
I am now in Port Mouton, NS, jeez don't tell me this will ruin my vacation. Fortunately I am not here with my boat!

L
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Old 09-03-2019, 07:18 AM   #384
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I am now in Port Mouton, NS, jeez don't tell me this will ruin my vacation. Fortunately I am not here with my boat!

L
Track shows it getting to Halifax this coming Sunday with winds @ 80 mph. Right now moving at 1 mph so I guess they think it will speed up. You are 1,200 miles away and that's a long way at 1 mph.
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Old 09-03-2019, 07:43 AM   #385
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My wife asked about boating and hurricane season, I said no worries we won’t go down south during the season, so not much to worry about...
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Old 09-03-2019, 07:53 AM   #386
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I do understand everyones concern about the hurricane. I was content to watch a movie instead of the ongoing TV coverage of "You are going to die....."
Now GA will basically do the same to its citizens. Yes, I know there are mandatory evacuations along the coast.... but the Atlanta TV stations will once again "over cover" the hurricane. I do not get any cable but I am very sure.... it is 24hr repeated (tape) coverage as before.
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Old 09-03-2019, 08:06 AM   #387
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It's moving again, albeit slowly. Most important thing is that it is heading 325, so NNW.
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Old 09-03-2019, 08:10 AM   #388
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It's moving again, albeit slowly. Most important thing is that it us heading 325, so NNW.
Right now, the big question is how will it's path compare to Matthew. If it stays East of Matthew's path then that will be good news. Right now it is projected to do so.
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Old 09-03-2019, 09:18 AM   #389
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I do understand everyones concern about the hurricane. I was content to watch a movie instead of the ongoing TV coverage of "You are going to die....."
Now GA will basically do the same to its citizens. Yes, I know there are mandatory evacuations along the coast.... but the Atlanta TV stations will once again "over cover" the hurricane. I do not get any cable but I am very sure.... it is 24hr repeated (tape) coverage as before.
Nothing I saw was repeated. There is a fine line between responsible reporting of a weather event and sensationalizing it. They do show their hand when there is no real destruction so they go out and find some little house right on the beach with a bit of washout going on an make a big deal of it.
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Old 09-03-2019, 09:38 AM   #390
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Yeah they said they are waiting for the plane to grab more info. They’ve only made 1 pass as of now.

This thing needs to start moving. Has a hurricane ever sat stationary for so long?



Hurricane Harvey (2017) sat over Houston and wobbled around for a few days. The severe flooding from the rain caused massive damage. Upwards of what Katrina caused.


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Old 09-03-2019, 09:38 AM   #391
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Actually I think they sensationalize. I remember Andrew and you never saw neighborhoods that appeared almost untouched except for tree damage but you saw hundreds of houses destroyed. Because that’s what people want to see, you don’t go to NASCAR to watch cars run on an oval, you go for the wrecks.

During Andrew I fielded many calls all saying the same thing, did I survive, how much damage. Yes and none. My house on the Atlantic in Key Largo was perfect. Amazing when I looked at the news I should have been dead with no property left. I understand the officials need to assume the worst to get people to move.

Then again could they get people to watch four days of weather if there was going to be no destruction.

Just my SSO
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Old 09-03-2019, 09:48 AM   #392
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I’m in Myrtle Beach right now. Place is dead. The hotel is only open for us right now and they are closing up as soon as we leave in a couple of hours. I get that you don’t want to wait too long but it’s still a long ways away.

MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary.
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Old 09-03-2019, 09:52 AM   #393
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https://www.foxnews.com/world/hurric...on-the-bahamas

Storm surge in Carolina's up to 12 foot maybe.
Dorian still churning over Grand Bahama.
Weakened but also may strengthen again before it heads north.
eventual landfalls all along outer banks.

Sure its all just a projection.
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Old 09-03-2019, 09:55 AM   #394
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11:00 update now posted. It's still slow but starting to move. 320 degrees, just north of NW. Hopefully the 2pm update has it more towards 360.

Wind has also dropped.

LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:04 AM   #395
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With 24 hour cable "news" the old saw "If it Bleeds it Leads" is all they have.

Its going to be difficult to keep folks in refuges if the storm keeps going at a crawl, without fear stories

And really expensive to have 25,000 - 40,000 lineman on TDY with their equipment standing by.

The big worry is the next big breeze , folks will not heed the warnings.
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:07 AM   #396
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Leaving your home, means its difficult to get back to it. they wont let you back home for days.

My brother, wife, kids and parents all live in Myrtle Beach. But not right on the shore. Last I heard they are staying there. 10 foot of surge, the house is going to barely flood. They are in an well off neighborhood off the grand strand.
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:12 AM   #397
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Its going to be difficult to keep folks in refuges if the storm keeps going at a crawl.

And really expensive to have 25,000 - 40,000 lineman on TDY with their equipment standing by.
It is difficult to be Goldilocks and have juuuust the right amount.
Given the choices of not enough or too much.
Too much will cost you on a line item that goes away pretty quickly.
Not enough will burn for a long time in more ways than just money.
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:18 AM   #398
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Overreaction....

I hope so.

Yes, I hope that it's never as bad as the warnings on tv. They do present worst case. That saves lives.

They didn't overreact to Harvey or Michael or Matthew or Florence or Irma and likely saved lives in all those. What if the Bahamas had reacted the same as Charleston is to Dorian?

I would say all we read on this site about hurricane areas and hurricane planning is the same type overreaction as the news. The kind that protects people. Once again we have our boats prepared but Fort Lauderdale not getting hit. Is that bad? I don't think so. We closed all our stores yesterday and today. In Miami Dade and Broward today wasn't necessary, but we didn't know that yesterday and we'd rather employees worry about their families and, yes, they all get paid scheduled hours for these two days.

I'd rather those who need to prepare do so and those who turn out doing so unnecessarily then just breathe a sigh of relief.
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:18 AM   #399
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I’m in Myrtle Beach right now. Place is dead. The hotel is only open for us right now and they are closing up as soon as we leave in a couple of hours. I get that you don’t want to wait too long but it’s still a long ways away.

MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary.
"MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary."

How much notice do you think would be required to shut down an airport like this for equipment, staff and passengers?
What minimum lead time to make the decisions?
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Old 09-03-2019, 10:44 AM   #400
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"MCO closed last night. That’s completely unnecessary."

How much notice do you think would be required to shut down an airport like this for equipment, staff and passengers?
What minimum lead time to make the decisions?
Orlando is far enough inland that it’s never been a concern, or hasn’t been for the last few days.
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