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05-30-2018, 05:00 AM
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#1
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Guru
City: Seaford Va on Poquoson River, VA
Vessel Name: Old Glory
Vessel Model: 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 2,264
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Diesel may jump in price due to new regulations
Quote:
The regulation will send demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil soaring, and refiners will have to shift some of the products they will be processing from crude oil, analysts concur.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigge...230000097.html
They will not allow ships to burn high sulfur fuel oils. So demand for diesel is expected to go up. I wonder how much higher.
At what price point would the increased prices affect your using your boat?
Everyone has their price. And this should affect boat sales, as it is like a tax.
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05-30-2018, 06:04 AM
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#2
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Valued Technical Contributor
City: Litchfield, Ct
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,785
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There will be some shift to diesel, but I think refiners will just desulfurize the heavy fuel oil that ships now burn. It will be more expensive certainly. The processing required to desulfurize heavy fuel oil is one of the most expensive in a refinery.
I am sure similar dire warnings were issued when ultra low sulfur diesel regulations went into effect twenty years ago.
But this is all good for the environment.
David
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05-30-2018, 06:05 AM
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#3
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Guru
City: Biloxi, MS
Vessel Name: Cajun Rose
Vessel Model: Biloxi Lugger
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,384
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Before I bought a Trawler I had a 28' Center Console and would run 2-3 hundred miles a day catching fish in tournaments. When gas hit $4/gallon that was it for me, sold the boat and bought a Trawler. I can run now about 140miles and sit on the hook for 4 days and burn about 130 gallons, if diesel doubles, no problem. Triples, fewer trips or more people.
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05-30-2018, 06:59 AM
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#4
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Senior Member
City: Hervey Bay QLD
Vessel Name: Moana
Vessel Model: 1996 M40 Riviera aft cab
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 103
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Diesel costs here on the Gold Coast of Australia vary from equivalent in US gallons from $5.60 to $6.20, I enjoyed the $2.30 a gallon when I was over in your great country in 2015/2016.
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05-30-2018, 09:06 AM
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#5
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Guru
City: Fort Myers, FL... Summers in the Great Lakes
Vessel Name: Slow Hand
Vessel Model: Cherubini Independence 45
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 12,834
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This doesn't surprise me. Big oil companies liked the $5 per gallon prices in 2008. I sure it will be there or higher in the near future. Figured it would only be a matter of time. I get 3.5 MPG @ 7 knots and can slow down to 6 knots for 5.0 MPG. I can stomach $10 per gallon but think the economy will crash long before that.
Ted
__________________
Blog: mvslowhand.com
I'm tired of fast moves, I've got a slow groove, on my mind.....
I want to spend some time, Not come and go in a heated rush.....
"Slow Hand" by The Pointer Sisters
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05-30-2018, 09:49 AM
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#6
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Guru
City: Gig Harbor
Vessel Name: Kinship
Vessel Model: North Pacific 43
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 9,046
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If diesel fuel for ships continues to increase it will spur on the movement to develop LNG plants to use for ship fuel.
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05-30-2018, 11:45 AM
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#7
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Guru
City: Adelaide
Vessel Name: Kokanee
Vessel Model: Cuddles 30 Pilot House Motor Sailer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,218
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I'm paying about $6 a US gallon now, but it wouldn't bother me if diesel went up to $20 a gallon. High oil prices do have some advantages. (especially if you work in the industry)
I doubt if it will though, as mentioned by OCDiver, the oil price tends to self regulates itself by slowing the economy when it gets too high.
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05-30-2018, 02:34 PM
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#8
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Guru
City: Cape May, NJ
Vessel Name: Irish Lady
Vessel Model: Monk 36
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,964
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Don’t lose sleep over this.
__________________
Archie
Irish Lady
1984 Monk 36 Hull #46
Currently in Cape May, NJ
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05-30-2018, 04:04 PM
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#9
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Technical Guru
City: Wilmington, NC
Vessel Name: Louisa
Vessel Model: Custom Built 38
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,194
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Is heavy fuel still a residual, or is it now a distillate?
Can see the cost going up for heavy fuel in either case, but can't see #2 going up that much except briefly as the refineries adapt and ships burn more #2. Cost of heavy fuel definitely will go up.
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05-30-2018, 04:17 PM
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#10
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Guru
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 22,553
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The oil folks worry that if the price is high , and looks like it will stay high , the banks will be free to loan the Frackers drilling cash , and the price will then crash again.
If the US finally allows drilling in many places that are not well explored , the price may crash anyway.
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05-30-2018, 06:08 PM
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#11
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Guru
City: Concrete Washington State
Vessel Name: Willy
Vessel Model: Willard Nomad 30'
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 18,743
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Interesting;
A lot of crystal balls ...
__________________
Eric
North Western Washington State USA
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05-30-2018, 06:12 PM
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#12
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Guru
City: San Diego
Vessel Model: Helmsman 4304
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 2,005
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The big concern for coastal cities with Ports is the ships running their diesel generators when tied up.
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05-30-2018, 06:20 PM
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#13
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Guru
City: Oriental N.C.
Vessel Name: true heading
Vessel Model: marine trader 38 dc
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 572
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now I'm wandering why I didn't fill up Saturday when I was at a dock with fuel.
I'm also wandering how much fuel I have.
I could have went a year without worrying about it.
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05-30-2018, 06:55 PM
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#14
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Valued Technical Contributor
City: Litchfield, Ct
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,785
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ski in NC
Is heavy fuel still a residual, or is it now a distillate?
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Heavy fuel oil as is burned in ocean going ships is, well heavy. It is sometimes called #6 fuel oil, bunker C fuel oil or residual oil. Diesel is similar to #2 fuel oil.
This oil is so heavy that it has to be kept in heated tanks on the ship to be able to flow. If not it is like molasses.
It is not a distillate because in the refinery vacuum distillation towers where it is made from crude oil, it comes off the bottom of the tower and never "distills", ie boils up the tower. It is sometimes called residual oil because it is the residue in the bottom of the distillation tower.
David
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05-30-2018, 07:43 PM
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#15
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Guru
City: Kitimat, North Coast BC
Vessel Name: Badger
Vessel Model: 30' Sundowner Tug
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,946
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Instead of Alberta exporting diluted bitumen (currently an “issue” with BC because there are no plausible clean up strategies from the bottom of our cold, fast flowing salmon rivers or marine environments) Alberta should refine more and create some jobs in Canada. Bugs me when the price of diesel goes up here because a refinery in Washington State has a hiccup.
__________________
"The most interesting path between two points is not a straight line" MurrayM
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05-30-2018, 07:58 PM
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#16
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Guru
City: st pete
Vessel Model: 430 Mainship
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,502
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Oil pricing is hard to predict, but one can see trends, and the trend lately has been increasing. There are so many factors, it's hard to figure out.
However, typically oil prices increase in the summer with increased need, and decrease in the fall as need goes down.
There's an argument to just hedge against the swing by buying oil stocks/royalites/options, etc. That's what I did so I don't care what oil does... actually I prefer higher prices.
__________________
Seevee
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05-30-2018, 09:47 PM
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#17
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Senior Member
City: Manasquan NJ
Vessel Name: Mayrose
Vessel Model: Mainship 34 pilot
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 150
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I had paid 7 cents more a gallon for low sulfur off road diesel than #2 heating oil a year ago.
Greg
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05-30-2018, 10:34 PM
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#18
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Guru
City: Adelaide
Vessel Name: Kokanee
Vessel Model: Cuddles 30 Pilot House Motor Sailer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,218
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For many of us, if the price of diesel doubles we can just slow down a knot or two and our running costs will be the same.
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05-30-2018, 11:40 PM
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#19
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Guru
City: Huntersville NC
Vessel Name: Abeona
Vessel Model: Marine Trader 47’ Sundeck
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 898
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I’m in the process of buying my first diesel trawler. The price of diesel is going to skyrocket shortly after....watch
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05-31-2018, 05:23 AM
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#20
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Guru
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 22,553
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"I’m in the process of buying my first diesel trawler. The price of diesel is going to skyrocket shortly after....watch"
With a fuel burn of 2 or 3 GPH what difference would that make?
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