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Old 05-30-2018, 05:00 AM   #1
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Diesel may jump in price due to new regulations

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The regulation will send demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil soaring, and refiners will have to shift some of the products they will be processing from crude oil, analysts concur.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigge...230000097.html

They will not allow ships to burn high sulfur fuel oils. So demand for diesel is expected to go up. I wonder how much higher.
At what price point would the increased prices affect your using your boat?
Everyone has their price. And this should affect boat sales, as it is like a tax.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:04 AM   #2
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There will be some shift to diesel, but I think refiners will just desulfurize the heavy fuel oil that ships now burn. It will be more expensive certainly. The processing required to desulfurize heavy fuel oil is one of the most expensive in a refinery.

I am sure similar dire warnings were issued when ultra low sulfur diesel regulations went into effect twenty years ago.

But this is all good for the environment.

David
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:05 AM   #3
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Before I bought a Trawler I had a 28' Center Console and would run 2-3 hundred miles a day catching fish in tournaments. When gas hit $4/gallon that was it for me, sold the boat and bought a Trawler. I can run now about 140miles and sit on the hook for 4 days and burn about 130 gallons, if diesel doubles, no problem. Triples, fewer trips or more people.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:59 AM   #4
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Diesel costs here on the Gold Coast of Australia vary from equivalent in US gallons from $5.60 to $6.20, I enjoyed the $2.30 a gallon when I was over in your great country in 2015/2016.
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Old 05-30-2018, 09:06 AM   #5
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This doesn't surprise me. Big oil companies liked the $5 per gallon prices in 2008. I sure it will be there or higher in the near future. Figured it would only be a matter of time. I get 3.5 MPG @ 7 knots and can slow down to 6 knots for 5.0 MPG. I can stomach $10 per gallon but think the economy will crash long before that.

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Old 05-30-2018, 09:49 AM   #6
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If diesel fuel for ships continues to increase it will spur on the movement to develop LNG plants to use for ship fuel.
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:45 AM   #7
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I'm paying about $6 a US gallon now, but it wouldn't bother me if diesel went up to $20 a gallon. High oil prices do have some advantages. (especially if you work in the industry)

I doubt if it will though, as mentioned by OCDiver, the oil price tends to self regulates itself by slowing the economy when it gets too high.
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Old 05-30-2018, 02:34 PM   #8
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Don’t lose sleep over this.
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Old 05-30-2018, 04:04 PM   #9
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Is heavy fuel still a residual, or is it now a distillate?

Can see the cost going up for heavy fuel in either case, but can't see #2 going up that much except briefly as the refineries adapt and ships burn more #2. Cost of heavy fuel definitely will go up.
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Old 05-30-2018, 04:17 PM   #10
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The oil folks worry that if the price is high , and looks like it will stay high , the banks will be free to loan the Frackers drilling cash , and the price will then crash again.

If the US finally allows drilling in many places that are not well explored , the price may crash anyway.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:08 PM   #11
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Interesting;

A lot of crystal balls ...
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:12 PM   #12
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The big concern for coastal cities with Ports is the ships running their diesel generators when tied up.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:20 PM   #13
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now I'm wandering why I didn't fill up Saturday when I was at a dock with fuel.
I'm also wandering how much fuel I have.

I could have went a year without worrying about it.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:55 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ski in NC View Post
Is heavy fuel still a residual, or is it now a distillate?
Heavy fuel oil as is burned in ocean going ships is, well heavy. It is sometimes called #6 fuel oil, bunker C fuel oil or residual oil. Diesel is similar to #2 fuel oil.

This oil is so heavy that it has to be kept in heated tanks on the ship to be able to flow. If not it is like molasses.

It is not a distillate because in the refinery vacuum distillation towers where it is made from crude oil, it comes off the bottom of the tower and never "distills", ie boils up the tower. It is sometimes called residual oil because it is the residue in the bottom of the distillation tower.

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Old 05-30-2018, 07:43 PM   #15
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Instead of Alberta exporting diluted bitumen (currently an “issue” with BC because there are no plausible clean up strategies from the bottom of our cold, fast flowing salmon rivers or marine environments) Alberta should refine more and create some jobs in Canada. Bugs me when the price of diesel goes up here because a refinery in Washington State has a hiccup.
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Old 05-30-2018, 07:58 PM   #16
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Oil pricing is hard to predict, but one can see trends, and the trend lately has been increasing. There are so many factors, it's hard to figure out.

However, typically oil prices increase in the summer with increased need, and decrease in the fall as need goes down.

There's an argument to just hedge against the swing by buying oil stocks/royalites/options, etc. That's what I did so I don't care what oil does... actually I prefer higher prices.
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Old 05-30-2018, 09:47 PM   #17
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I had paid 7 cents more a gallon for low sulfur off road diesel than #2 heating oil a year ago.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:34 PM   #18
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For many of us, if the price of diesel doubles we can just slow down a knot or two and our running costs will be the same.
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:40 PM   #19
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I’m in the process of buying my first diesel trawler. The price of diesel is going to skyrocket shortly after....watch
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Old 05-31-2018, 05:23 AM   #20
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"I’m in the process of buying my first diesel trawler. The price of diesel is going to skyrocket shortly after....watch"


With a fuel burn of 2 or 3 GPH what difference would that make?
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