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Old 08-24-2017, 06:10 PM   #1
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Cardude in Harvey bullseye

Man, where did this Hurricane come from. 50 MPH wind increase in 18 hours!! And now predicting Cat 3 before landfall.!! After some terrifying remarks on leaving his boat in his Stuart, FL marinaearly in the week, he flew over here and moved his boat from his Stuart Marina to FF's house in the middle of the State to thwart approaching storm concerns. Great that he left his boat there, but he takes a flight home to Victoria, TX and now he's staring down a Possible Cat 3! His usual Port of Call, Rockport, is under mandatory evac notice. Best of luck, Cardude, and I hope the good fortune of leaving your boat in FL stays with you there in Victoria.
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Old 08-24-2017, 06:15 PM   #2
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Ouch. Best wishes Cardude..
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Old 08-24-2017, 07:19 PM   #3
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Some people have all the luck. Stay safe at least the boat is safe.
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Old 08-24-2017, 07:34 PM   #4
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Good luck to him and to all the Texas members as even for those not hit, the floods are projected to be very heavy. Houston is supposed to get 12" of rain. Strongest in the Texas Bend in 47 years. First Texas landfall in 9 years. First CAT 3 landfall anywhere in US since Wilma in 2005.
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Old 08-24-2017, 07:36 PM   #5
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Probably not needed, but anyway a reminder to all. Do what you can for your boat in advance, but then it's not about boats or cars or even houses, it's about you, your family, your loved ones, your neighbors. Be safe.
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Old 08-24-2017, 08:22 PM   #6
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Probably not needed, but anyway a reminder to all. Do what you can for your boat in advance, but then it's not about boats or cars or even houses, it's about you, your family, your loved ones, your neighbors. Be safe.
Well said.
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Old 08-24-2017, 08:49 PM   #7
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Stay safe Cardude.
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Old 08-24-2017, 08:49 PM   #8
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Good luck to all our Gulf Coast peeps! Thoughts and prayers.
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Old 08-24-2017, 09:05 PM   #9
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We are boarded up. Have food and lots of water. Kids evacuated to central Texas with friends.

We are about 45 miles from the coast, but I've never been through one this strong so a bit worried. My parents and sister have little beach houses right on the water in Port Alto Tx. Supposed to be a 6-12' surge there. Have a bad feeling for those houses.
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Old 08-24-2017, 09:48 PM   #10
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Best of luck to you and everyone in the path of Harvey.
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Old 08-24-2017, 10:09 PM   #11
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Sending good wishes for you and yours...
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Old 08-24-2017, 10:36 PM   #12
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Well, spent the last couple of days preparing the Texas Lady in between preparing for Harvey's arrival at our home and lodge on Matagorda Bay. It has been exhausting. You do not realize how many pot plants, benches and chairs until you have to move and store them in a couple of days. We went from a tropical storm forecast yesterday morning to category 3 fast, so our preparation plans kept growing. Now time to evacuate and hope and pray it will not be as bad as I fear. Good luck to all of ourTexas coastal friends in Harvey's aim.
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Old 08-24-2017, 11:05 PM   #13
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Quote:
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Well, spent the last couple of days preparing the Texas Lady in between preparing for Harvey's arrival at our home and lodge on Matagorda Bay. It has been exhausting. You do not realize how many pot plants, benches and chairs until you have to move and store them in a couple of days. We went from a tropical storm forecast yesterday morning to category 3 fast, so our preparation plans kept growing. Now time to evacuate and hope and pray it will not be as bad as I fear. Good luck to all of ourTexas coastal friends in Harvey's aim.
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Ditto to all Lone Star folks!
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Old 08-25-2017, 09:15 AM   #14
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Well, spent the last couple of days preparing the Texas Lady in between preparing for Harvey's arrival at our home and lodge on Matagorda Bay. It has been exhausting. You do not realize how many pot plants, benches and chairs until you have to move and store them in a couple of days. We went from a tropical storm forecast yesterday morning to category 3 fast, so our preparation plans kept growing. Now time to evacuate and hope and pray it will not be as bad as I fear. Good luck to all of ourTexas coastal friends in Harvey's aim.
Charlie
Dang,...you're staring this thing in the face, TexasLady. Sure wish you the best. Watch out for the surge. Try to stay in touch!
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Old 08-25-2017, 09:49 AM   #15
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We were just looking at Weather Channel and the forecast storm surge map. This is something they've greatly refined the past few years. Up to 12', some areas up to 9' but a lot of areas including places like downtown Port Aransas with 3'. Now, I'm not knowledgeable in how far above sea level many of those areas are. I see several areas with mandatory evacuations. Also, noted that even though well outside the primary area, New Orleans will even be hit with the rain and very few of their pumps are currently in service due to maintenance issues.

It reminds me in some ways of Sandy. It's very slow moving and is forecast to remain in the area for a long time, even stall, even head back out. It's stronger than Sandy however when Sandy made landfall.

No two hurricanes are alike though and no two areas of the coast are the same. In Fort Lauderdale, we've never had the kinds of surge they are talking about and our home is well protected up to 6' surge.

Also, there are a lot of areas in South Texas, near both San Antonio and Houston which flood very easily and have been hit hard by storms in the last few years. The predicted rainfall by itself is likely to flood those areas.

I hope people who are evacuating did so soon enough that they don't get held up on the highways. Typically evacuation is up the interstates toward Dallas. Also, typically, you'd see forecasts of rain in the Dallas area a few days later, but there is none forecast for this storm, which shows further how it's expected to linger on the coast.

Thoughts with all impacted by this storm, both TF'ers and others.
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Old 08-25-2017, 10:51 AM   #16
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Tornadoes are always a big issue with Texas storms too.
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Old 08-25-2017, 12:38 PM   #17
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Thanks for the thoughts and prayers. I have so many thoughts about this storm I could write a book. It has spooked me more than any other storm. For us on the upper coast, it is more a rain event. But I do think we are gonna get more rain than even ground zero....which is the Palacios/Port O'connor area. I use my own "Almanac" as I have a big history with storms in our area and I get a little miffed at the talking heads on TV.

My rhetorical question to you is...Have you ever seen a major hurricane cause extensive damage that is caused by RAIN???? I have not or I sure cannot think of one. My reasoning and something that they may not be factoring(but I have a hard time believing myself on that) is that powerful hurricanes have an interaction with the surface of the earth and the atmosphere around them. IOW, they do not "meander" like this one is forecast to do. That is the scariest part of this storm(once the initial impact is over with). It is supposed to sit on top of us FOR SIX DAYS!!!! So back to my rhetorical question and my theory about friction. Will it "meander"??? Or will it keep on moving(against what the models are showing) and do like any other Hurricane in history?? I will admit, there have been a couple of very experienced meteorologists that have said they have never seen a forecast like this in their entire career....these dudes were at least in their 50s and 60s.

Good luck to you folks on the central coast. This one is gonna sting a bit. And good luck to us all that this thing does not dump as much rain as it looks like it might on paper. B&B mentioned 12 inches. I can only pray that is all we get. I have seen that amount in less than a day in a non tropical event. On the other Extreme, the return of TS Allison in 2001 dumped 34 inches in less than 24 hours in the middle of Houston. It was in a "500 year flood plain" so most did not have flood insurance. But was some very serious rainfall!!! We generally do not flood where I am at near Galveston Bay. We are close enough to the Bay for quick run off and high enough so the surge does not get us. My neighborhood was built in 2005 so not sure it could handle 34 inches in 24 hours....not many places could.

Thanks for the thoughts and prayers. I got in from a red eye this morning and am just waking up. Haven't even been to the boat yet but will get there this afternoon just to snug things up. Like I said for us up here...it is a rain event and not a wind event so boat should be fine. It is actually one of our safety valves if things get hairy. It floats...it has plenty of water aboard...and has a generator. What more do we need...

PS...Hurricane Ike was "quietly" the third costliest Hurricane in History behind Sandy and Katrina. You heard more about those storms because of where they hit. There was a guy on here(Carey) that worked for FEMA who served during Katrina in NOLA. When Ike happened, he feared that he was gonna face the same issues as they did in NOLA. He said they showed up and were expecting to be attacked by people looking for help. That didn't happen. He said no one showed up and all you could hear was chainsaws and generators...basically the sounds of people helping themselves and others. So that didn't make for a very newsworthy story since no one was complaining and whining...hence my "quietly" remark.

PSS...And hopefully "Baker's Theory" from Baker's Almanac will be true. The Storm hits and just keeps on moving. At the very least goes well inland to cause it to fall apart. YOu heard it here first. Only one or two models show it doing that.
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Old 08-25-2017, 01:38 PM   #18
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Beg to disagree, Baker. This looks somewhat like TS Allison (2001) to me. Allison demonstrated rain can do a lot of damage. Harvey has more significant wind, but also has the potential for Allison's precip - 37" in 6 days in Houston. At least Ike kept moving. If Harvey stalls, as predicted, Htown and environs could be in for some rough sledding.
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Old 08-25-2017, 01:55 PM   #19
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Beg to disagree, Baker. This looks somewhat like TS Allison (2001) to me. Allison demonstrated rain can do a lot of damage. Harvey has more significant wind, but also has the potential for Allison's precip - 37" in 6 days in Houston. At least Ike kept moving. If Harvey stalls, as predicted, Htown and environs could be in for some rough sledding.
Agree, this has the makings of an Allison event.
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Old 08-25-2017, 02:21 PM   #20
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Best of luck to all of you who are in, and have friends and family in the path of this storm.
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