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Old 08-28-2016, 06:32 AM   #81
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I agree!!

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Originally Posted by markpierce View Post
Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid.
It truly is, and should be avoided at ALL COSTS.
No one should come here. It's terrible!

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Old 08-28-2016, 06:35 AM   #82
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By that time most hurricane holes will be taken. My theory if I'm cruising is to find a marina a couple of days out and stay there. If you wait too long most of the protected marinas won't have slips and you're stuck. So find a place early and absorb the cost.
Good reminder.....I could see that depending where you are.

But my rarionale is that in a lifetime of boating being threatened by hurricanes, I have only pulled twice and moved once. Usually by waiting, the intensity or track changed enough to stand down with little or no preparation needed. Of course I was only on the Gulf Coast for 5 years so not living in "ground zero" helped.

The same applied in the USCG, we were always starting to pack and move things when the storm was so far off. It was very disruptive to operations...finally the policy came down to a more wait and scramble approach. Again, just by waiting till things firmed up saved many a man day from needless preparation.

The biggest dilemma for hurricane prep can be for people who also have jobs related to public assistance with evacuations. That overlap has to be carefully managed within those agencies so workers don't get screwed...been there...helped get rid of that mentality where I could.
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Old 08-28-2016, 06:40 AM   #83
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I would agree with the criticism of the "talking heads" on the morning/evening "news" shows...
But this storm has been a bit of a different beast, tripping up some very veteran AND accurate forecasters.

And, as the latest runs indicate, it's likely not over yet. There's plenty of hurricane food available in the Gulf right now, so if I DID own a boat on FL's Gulf Coast, I'd keep a close eye on it.
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Old 08-28-2016, 09:06 AM   #84
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When did anyone start paying any attention to a storm that never organized enough to get a name? I didn't even know they numbered storms. I've always called this type of weather "rainy". It must have been a very slow news week.
Invest's are always numbered 91-99.
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Old 08-28-2016, 09:53 AM   #85
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99?...
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Old 08-28-2016, 10:53 AM   #86
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Nash Roberts, where are you?

Old time New Orleans weatherman who "always" got it right!
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Old 08-28-2016, 11:22 AM   #87
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I think he is with Hap Galladi now.
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Old 08-28-2016, 12:39 PM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timjet View Post
By that time most hurricane holes will be taken. My theory if I'm cruising is to find a marina a couple of days out and stay there. If you wait too long most of the protected marinas won't have slips and you're stuck. So find a place early and absorb the cost.
Yes, but if you run for cover with every potential tropical storm then they will completely dominate your life. The majority don't hit land and of those that do, the vast majority won't hit where you are. I would not wait until within 48 hours to take steps, but I would certainly wait longer than people were talking about 99. My time is 3 to 4 days and at the very least until it's actually a hurricane. Otherwise my boat is always prepared for a storm the size of 99, unless I'm out on it and then I'm very aware and prepared to move.

The various paths of 99 now show landfall anywhere from Tampa to New Orleans with one straggler for Galveston area. However, none of those show it developing into even a tropical storm. It's bringing heavy rain. So, if I lived in an area that would be impacted by heavy rain, I'd stay on alert, but that's a land concern, not a boat one.

Meanwhile 91 has turned into Tropical Depression 8 and it is likely to hit the NC coast as a Tropical Storm on Tuesday so if I was in that area I would be reacting as I would to a Tropical Storm, whatever that is to an individual.

Does mean 99 can no longer turn into Hermine as H/8 is now taken.

It's all a very personal decision of when and how to react. I just try to make my reaction consistent with what I know at the time and there's been nothing in the history of 99 that would have sent me into hurricane mode. If I lived in Louisiana right now, I would be very concerned of it or anything with the potential of additional rain. I don't fault anyone who is concerned and takes what I would consider premature action.

I guess part of my thought is centered around those who say they can't keep a boat in Florida because of hurricanes or wonder how anyone boats or lives in Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Well, we do very happily but we do so by only reacting to hurricanes headed our way and since 2005, no hurricane has made landfall anywhere in the state of Florida. We do remain aware of every tropical development but we don't go into hurricane mode on them.

One other thing is that we always assume storms may come, whether tropical or otherwise and keep our boats prepared for storms.
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Old 08-28-2016, 01:21 PM   #89
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Good excuse for cruising to a new destination though....
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Old 08-28-2016, 01:51 PM   #90
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99?...
Wifey B: Smart aleck.
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Old 08-28-2016, 01:55 PM   #91
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Wifey B: Smart aleck.
RT must have a huge hard drive. He has an image for EVERYTHING! Lol
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Old 08-28-2016, 01:56 PM   #92
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Now the nhc is saying there is a high probability for development of 99.
The little invest that just won't die.
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Old 08-28-2016, 02:02 PM   #93
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It's a race between the three systems out there as to who gets what naming rights...we're looking at hermine, Ian, and Julia.
Julia if the system way out there gets that name is gearing up to be a major superstorm.
Hope the weather gods line things up so it stay a fish.
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Old 08-28-2016, 02:14 PM   #94
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Now the nhc is saying there is a high probability for development of 99.
The little invest that just won't die.
Yes, but let's be careful that we, unlike the television teases, get exactly what they're saying. They're saying now that there's a 60% probability within 48 hours and 80% within 5 days of Disturbance 1 becoming a tropical depression. Still a long way from being a hurricane.

And meanwhile a 10% probability of Disturbance 2 which is carrying rainfall to Texas and Louisiana becoming a tropical depression.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression 8 is Bermuda and then NC bound and is expected to become a Tropical Storm.

When they say development into a tropical cyclone, people assume that means a hurricane and it doesn't. A tropical depression is a cyclone.

More rain for Louisiana is the scary part of all this.
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Old 08-28-2016, 02:24 PM   #95
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Old 08-28-2016, 03:23 PM   #96
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Yes, but let's be careful that we, unlike the television teases, get exactly what they're saying. They're saying now that there's a 60% probability within 48 hours and 80% within 5 days of Disturbance 1 becoming a tropical depression. Still a long way from being a hurricane.

And meanwhile a 10% probability of Disturbance 2 which is carrying rainfall to Texas and Louisiana becoming a tropical depression.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression 8 is Bermuda and then NC bound and is expected to become a Tropical Storm.

When they say development into a tropical cyclone, people assume that means a hurricane and it doesn't. A tropical depression is a cyclone.

More rain for Louisiana is the scary part of all this.
I personally don't think it will ever strengthen above a tropical storm.
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Old 08-28-2016, 04:23 PM   #97
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I personally don't think it will ever strengthen above a tropical storm.
It won't ever reach tropical storm. Just tropical depression at most. Definitely not a hurricane. It's Tropical Depression 9. The projected paths seem to have mostly converged although a couple of exceptions. Most have it sort of in the middle of the gulf, then either the west coast of FL or Alabama, making landfall late Wednesday or Thursday. It could still have a lot of surge.
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Old 08-28-2016, 05:47 PM   #98
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Yeah, Mark. HELL. In my time in paradise, I was part of the military assistance to the 71 Sylmar quake, was driving north on the Nimitz headed to Berkeley in 89 and durn near got thrown off the road with that one, and fought the Plymouth fire in 76 to protect my home, wife, and infant son (California drought before this one). It's all relative.
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Old 08-30-2016, 05:03 PM   #99
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Just saw the Tuesday 5 PM update, and the curve has improved for our area in SW FL Gulf Coast. Looks like the Big Bend is going to get most of it. Still will be plenty of rain and maybe some Tornadoes, but not too bad south if Tampa.
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Old 08-30-2016, 05:18 PM   #100
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Here in eastern NC, people and marinas typically pull the trigger on moving/haul out until it becomes a named storm. I paid Jarrett Bay "protection money" to a get a guaranteed spot and paid the annual fee of $900ish (61' LOA Hatteras) gladly; they have a very well run program and blocked the boat correctly.
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